mimillman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Remarkable consistency from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 SE side of the axis moved a bit further southeast this run and looks like heavier totals in the heart of the snowfall axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Where's that poster from Iowa throwing His towel yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Where's that poster from Iowa throwing His towel yesterday?Taking screenshots of the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 It's been gradually nudging SE. Noticed MSP is now getting fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 12z GGEM works for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Where's that poster from Iowa throwing His towel yesterday? [off topic]That would be me. I was just afraid that I would get shafted and get just plain ol rain. Please bear in mind that I mostly lurk. Anyways, very likely going to have a snow day next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 12 GFS ENS. Pretty good consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Yeah I can tell you since I've been on the border of the GFS snowfall area for awhile. This run it came back southeast after the warmer 12z run. It's showing all snow up until the dry slot and then a brief period of ZR, then dry, then back to snow tail end snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The GFS sure has been consistent! We can't seem to get it much farther south here in Michigan. Instamaps are usually more generous with snowfall amounts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The GFS sure has been consistent! We can't seem to get it much farther south here in Michigan. Instamaps are usually more generous with snowfall amounts... The PW maps round off the edges, instant weather maps don't. The most important thing to take away is that the heavy snow moved close us both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The PW maps round off the edges, instant weather maps don't. The most important thing to take away is that the heavy snow moved close us both. 18zGFS_012915.png Interesting...it actually moved the heavier snow a bit farther north in Michigan. That's less for me than many previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Interesting...it actually moved the heavier snow a bit farther north in Michigan. That's less for me than many previous runs. Kind of wondering why there is a break in the 12" amounts in eastern WI... A slightly northward tug of the CMC track with the GFS' moisture would be the best. Might even get some lake enhanced snow if that could happen somehow. Edit: One thing that is really weird is that the track of the low is further north on this GFS run, but yet I pull over more snow than that run. ... I see it's colder at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 DGEX gave up the good fight. Now deeper/further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 DGEX gave up the good fight. Now deeper/further NW.You're still tracking this system? It never had a chance for us even with these more se solutions were still too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 GEFS mean is getting a little close. Go back down by Lafayette. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 this one is over for N. IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Ugh...Hopefully they'll start heading back SE again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 You're still tracking this system? It never had a chance for us even with these more se solutions were still too warm. Still 5 days out. Virtually no chance we don't change over but a slightly further SE track and we could start as accum. snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The DGEX occludes the low big time. The triple junction is actually in the Ohio Valley. Good front end thump of snow for N IL and looking like blizzard conditions just north of here. But that's the DGEX. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 this one is over for N. IL Fork it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 this one is over for N. IL The coldest rain weather can deliver... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The coldest rain weather can deliver... I was afraid of that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 DGEX gave up the good fight. Now deeper/further NW. Yep. Not that it was unexpected, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I'm not throwing in the towel on a warning criteria event yet here. Today's runs certainly weren't as much eye candy as last night's 00z/06z guidance, but things haven't changed enough to keep it from reverting back in that direction in subsequent runs. If I were going with my gut I still think the best snows line up from Iowa into WI, with our area getting a decent advisory type snow. This does look like one of the more rare systems (for this area) regarding front end snowfall. Like I said a few nights ago we tend to have very short duration "thumps" before quickly mixing over to something else. Like Geos and others mentioned, it's going to be very entertaining from this point on now that the NAM gets to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Welcome to winter storm Kayla. The TWC just gave it a name lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Welcome to winter storm Kayla. The TWC just gave it a name lol. They dropped the ball. Should have named it Punxsutawney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Where do you find the DGEX snowfall map? The only one I can find is the 06Z one from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Haha^ that or they should have named in Phil. I don't think anyone north of Chicago or in Chicago should thrown in the towel yet. The system still doesn't get in for about 100 hours yet. With the sleet and snowstorm there was some last minute tugs ( within 36 hours) to the east/southeast with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 They dropped the ball. Should have named it Punxsutawney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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