A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 didn't lake zurich get like a 1' earlier this winter? you're probably already exceeding big dog climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 EURO has had a dry bias this winter, so I wouldn't be much stock in its snow amounts. Minneapolis this Sunday looks to be a snowy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Yep. I mentioned this with the "storm" from a few weeks ago too...but this winter season continues its never-ending quest to be extremely obnoxious. This is just a general observation, not an IMBY-related sentiment. Per the EPS, you have a sub-990 mb low in E-C IL. All else being equal, that is pretty impressive...and knowing nothing else, you'd think there would be a huge snowstorm in the cold sector...yet the max swath is only 5-8". It's like pulling teeth to get a storm to produce well in the Midwest, regardless of who gets hit. Obviously there is still time for things to change... There are 51 ensemble members, so you wouldn't expect numbers to be too high at this timeframe. Many members have a max of 10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 didn't lake zurich get like a 1' earlier this winter? you're probably already exceeding big dog climo Yeah, the Nov storm - but again, this is not an IMBY post, just a general thought for the Midwest overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Keep in mind that it's a mean of all 51 members, so at this timeframe you wouldn't expect numbers to be too high. Many members have a max of 10"+. That is true...but at the same time, a ~989 mb low is also a mean of the members. So, the members with a 10+" swath are probably sub-985...which isn't a very impressive max snowfall amount with such a low pressure. If I recall correctly, the infamous January 1999 blizzard never dropped below 999 mb as it moved northeast from IN into MI, yet it dropped 16+" of snow in some areas, and 10+" over a very large area. So, when you see a low that is significantly deeper than this coming together in a few days, it gets your hopes up a bit. Of course every storm is different...but it's frustrating for all of us (whether in MSP, MKE, Chicago, Detroit, QC, etc.) when it seems like everything has to come together absolutely perfectly to get a decent spread-the-wealth storm...or even a decent big dog for a localized area. That's fine for November or March...but it shouldn't be that difficult in DJF. If one town gets 10" of snow in an early Feb snowstorm (with most others getting 4-8" or less), it's really not that impressive. Bottom line - this storm had big hopes when the models were spitting out 20" totals a few days ago. Even so - although it seems like we've been watching this for awhile, there is still a bit of time for things to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Still lowering in pressure. Shift that 100 miles southeast. That would mess with the main wave result though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 NAM still much slower with the western trough this ends producing a large difference in WAA over the southern plains by 6z Tues on the GFS/NAM...with the GFS already pulling in a mid-level dry line across TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Well, one thing we have going for us is the moisture transport doesn't look to be to strong with the first wave...shouldn't have much effect on what's available for the main system, wherever it ends up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 CO is going to get dumped on up and down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Well, one thing we have going for us is the moisture transport doesn't look to be to strong with the first wave...shouldn't have much effect on what's available for the main system, wherever it ends up if Sunday spins up the kind of 850 low shown on the NAM i can definitely see it lowering the bomb potential when the main trough ejects leading to more of bowling ball track but like you said, moisture return even in that scenario looks good with an open gulf and nino jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Just for reference, where the main waves are currently that eventually carve out the western trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Going to be some exciting NAM runs coming up. Result of the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 NAM still much slower with the western trough this ends producing a large difference in WAA over the southern plains by 6z Tues on the GFS/NAM...with the GFS already pulling in a mid-level dry line across TX slower could be good and bad..helps get the colder air advecting south from the nrn plains but could allow heights to further rise out east. The NAM is also slower to move out the Sunday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 slower could be good and bad..helps get the colder air advecting south from the nrn plains but could allow heights to further rise out east it's all good as long as slower means slower to close off at h5 as well, and in this case it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 15Z SREF Mean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 GHD v 1.0 has entered the analog list at H96 Edit : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 GHD v 1.0 has entered the analog list at H96 Edit : LET'S GOOOO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I mentioned yesterday that if the track is farther south that this storm would probably be much more "lame". The models seem to be showing that today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 GHD v 1.0 has entered the analog list at H96 Edit : January 12-14 1979 is #3 on the analog list. Impressive swath of 12-18"+ on that one from northern MO across southwest lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I mentioned yesterday that if the track is farther south that this storm would probably be much more "lame". The models seem to be showing that today... Would you prefer a 5-8 windy as hell storm or rain driven rain, complimented with a flash freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Flatter ridge on the 18z GFS ahead of the western trof at 54hrs. Sunday system and western trof also look a little slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Would you prefer a 5-8 windy as hell storm or rain driven rain, complimented with a flash freeze? 5 to 8 inches without wind, hell, rain, or flash freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 That is true...but at the same time, a ~989 mb low is also a mean of the members. So, the members with a 10+" swath are probably sub-985...which isn't a very impressive max snowfall amount with such a low pressure. Those maps are probably 10:1, so areas with better ratios could do better. Overall I wouldn't get too hung up on qpf yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 January 12-14 1979 is #3 on the analog list. Impressive swath of 12-18"+ on that one from northern MO across southwest lower MI. 2/14/90 anywhere on that list? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 2/14/90 anywhere on that list? Yep, that's there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 2/14/90 anywhere on that list?#10 on the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The analog list seems to be closest to the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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