hm8 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Euro doesn't end up cutting that hard. Takes a track simmilar-ish to the GEFS mean it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Low manages to end up by Detroit. i would imagine that it zig zags somewhat between KS and Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Euro looks like it's doing what the others are...close off quickly, try to cut and get shunted east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 It and the GFS were the worst performers with the east coast blizzard. I wad a casual observer but the NAM seemed to do pretty well. Once we get closer I'd definitely take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 This will come NW from 00z Wrongo. SPI to east of SBN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Low manages to end up by Detroit. i would imagine that it zig zags somewhat between KS and Lake Huron. It tracks east-northeast. No zig zagging on this run. Weaker overall with less snow in the main axis. Deformation axis actually weakens pretty quickly Tuesday afternoon. Locally, suggests a front end thump I-88 and north then mix/rain followed quickly by dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I wad a casual observer but the NAM seemed to do pretty well. Once we get closer I'd definitely take it seriously.The NAM and SREFs were by far the best performers with that event. More or less locked in from 84/87 hours out and didn't waver much. Had to do with the fact that NAM and SREF members explicitly forecast convection, while the globals parameterize it. Globals were significantly impacted by convective feedback over the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Ahh. Remember those two. First one was pretty much a last minute NW trended and the other one grabbed too much marine air and flung it back. Forecast really busted hard on that '09 one here. Got a story for that one... I remember I had a final scheduled on the 9th and the professor said if the weather is too severe, I'll move the final to the next day (since most students were commuters). Next morning there is 3" of slop on the ground, less on the pavement. So I figured, darn, gotta go and take a final after all. Get to campus and there is almost no one there. Turns out the Governor just went ahead and closed all Universities and schools because Madison got 20". He thought the whole state got buried! lol. Well I got an extra day to study. Funny you mention that because I think I remember when he did that. Turned out ok for you with an extra day to study! Given our obsession with watching models, I would have just assumed/prayed that it was going to hit and put off the studying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 the whole quick wrap up solution is kind of lame and really subtracts from the overall potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Wrongo. SPI to east of SBN The low travels due east from western MO to the IL IN border...something's fishy with that. Also, all of the cold sector precip is up into central Wisconsin and Iowa, whereas the 00z had temperatures lower across N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The big story with this system has to be the winds. Really impressive looking. Not sure the winds are going to be of epic proportions. Strongest 850mb winds (70-80kt range) look to be in the warm sector, and will likely have trouble mixing down. That being said, once the cold air moves in, I wouldn't be surprised to see some 50kt gusts at the surface. Fairly run of the mill in terms of a wind event, may approach warning criteria for us, particularly along the lake shores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 GEM, EURO, GEFS, JMA all favour the SE trend now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 1.25" looking golden already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 GEM, EURO, GEFS, JMA all favour the SE trend now.... OP EURO and GFS are really only a 50 miles SE adjustment from at least giving us a couple of inches of SN/PL at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Western Region offices will be doing special RAOBS starting tomorrow, Central Region starting Sunday evening. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Western Region offices will be doing special RAOBS starting tomorrow, Central Region starting Sunday evening. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk nice and surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 nice and surprised i'm sure the severe is pushing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 What really is entertaining is the fact that the Euro/GGEM and others don't even show the rather significant wave on Sunday. 48 hours out and those models show nothing here while the American models pound out 6"+ in eastern MN and western WI. Something has to give in shortly. Madness X2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 WPC sounds scared of biting too much on strengthening trend with Sunday wave FWIW they're also punting on the NAM's idea with the western trough MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND CROSSING THE N-CNTRL U.S. SUNSURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH THE 00Z OR 12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGETHE GFS/GEFS WERE FIRST TO SHOW THE IDEA OF A DEEPER UPPER TROUGHAXIS OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST ON SUN...WHEN LOOKING BACK AT THEPAST FOUR 12/00Z ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI HEIGHT PLOTS FOR 534 AND 540DAM. THE REMAINING ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF/CMC HAVE TRENDEDTO WHERE THE GFS/GEFS WERE 3 CYCLES AGO OVER THE PLAINS VALID00Z/01. HOWEVER...THE GFS/GEFS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THEDEEPER EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND IS LIKELY TOO AMPLIFIED.THE 12Z CMC HAS JOINED THE AMPLIFIED GFS CAMP AND EVEN THEPREVIOUSLY FLAT 00Z UKMET HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH ITS 12ZRUN. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO BE SLOWER/DEEPER...PREFER TOSTAY AWAY FROM ONLY FLATTER IDEAS LIKE THE UKMET/ECMWF ALONE. ABLEND BETWEEN THE DEEPER 12Z GFS AND WEAKER 00Z/12Z ECMWF ISPREFERRED...RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO MODELS. THE ENSEMBLELOW PLOTS ALSO SUPPORT A POSITION BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND WOULDPRODUCE A FAVORABLE INTENSITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Canadian ensemble mean is basically little cairo to detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 From a met stand point the GEM isn't too insane, just needs more model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Funny you mention that because I think I remember when he did that. Turned out ok for you with an extra day to study! Given our obsession with watching models, I would have just assumed/prayed that it was going to hit and put off the studying. I had a GIS project to work on in place of a final, so I was really glad to have the day off. Lol, it was hard studying the days up until the night of the storm. Luckily I knew the material well. You can see that warm lake influence clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 It's nice and all that the EURO is colder, but I wish it was loaded with more moisture. GEPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 looks like the NAM will stay strong with the sunday wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 991 mb by Colorado Springs at 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Two distinct SLP clusters on the 12z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The 5-8" snow swath on the EPS mean runs from just S of Des Moines--MKE--Gaylord, MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Looking like a low passage near Lafayette, IN. On the EPS^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The 5-8" snow swath on the EPS mean runs from just S of Des Moines--MKE--Gaylord, MI. Yep. I mentioned this with the "storm" from a few weeks ago too...but this winter season continues its never-ending quest to be extremely obnoxious. This is just a general observation, not an IMBY-related sentiment. Per the EPS, you have a sub-990 mb low in E-C IL. All else being equal, that is pretty impressive...and knowing nothing else, you'd think there would be a huge snowstorm in the cold sector...yet the max swath is only 5-8". It's like pulling teeth to get a storm to produce well in the Midwest, regardless of who gets hit. Obviously there is still time for things to change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.