hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The CMC is a stretched-out mess. It occludes and stalls the surface low in Oklahoma, then reforms a new low over the Ohio Valley. It's nothing like anything any other model is showing. The 12z UK just came out very similar to the GFS, a little stronger and nw than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Haha . It always seems to snow the first week of February. I can't remember the last time I saw grass on my birthday the 5th. Let's get you a deep snowpack for your birthday. BTW, do you ever sleep? Let's see how far we can get these models to bleed SE before the inevitable last minute more amped/NW trend. Still lots of time to go on this one and a lot of factors at play. I'd argue neither Detroit or Minneapolis can throw in the towel yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Was really looking foward to the other south memes.. this isn't our storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 bad model having a bad year the 84 hr NAM/GGEM and DGEX aren't going to pull the coup Actually the CMC has been really good on tracks this winter within 72 hours or so. Snow placement has been a somewhat off at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I dont buy that solution low travels basically due east from oklahoma to southern illinois Yup, never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Isnt this the year of the strung-out mess storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Let's get you a deep snowpack for your birthday. BTW, do you ever sleep? Let's see how far we can get these models to bleed SE before the inevitable last minute more amped/NW trend. Still lots of time to go on this one and a lot of factors at play. I'd argue neither Detroit or Minneapolis can throw in the towel yet. O yeah. Once I can see the whole run of the EURO I sleep, and then I just catch up on the 6z runs by 9am in the morning. Lol CMC is strong with that lead wave. Basically it creates a storm in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 GFS ENS are SE of OP run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 O yeah. Once I can see the whole run of the EURO I sleep, and then I just catch up on the 6z runs by 9am in the morning. Lol CMC is strong with that lead wave. Basically it creates a storm in one run. The model's tendency to oversimplify the first wave is probably causing the second to come in further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 GFS ENS are SE of OP run how much farther se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 how much farther se Basically takes LP from STL to DET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The model's tendency to oversimplify the first wave is probably causing the second to come in further south. I think the CMC is too far south. Probably the most southeast will go now. It gives the SE MI and Ontario folks some hope though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I think the CMC is too far south. Probably the most southeast will go now. It gives the SE MI and Ontario folks some hope though. I'd like to give this solution credence but the GEM is so horrible. It had the lead weekend storm which is going to probably get down to 980mb at some point as a weak FROPA for the longest time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 model consistency/consensus on the western trough, closed upper level low, and a 988-990 slp to right around Chicago is excellent gonna ride with a 1.25" front end dump final call Agreed. Feel good about a slp track right around Chicago, give or take 50 miles. Some interesting events showing up on CIPS. The one that came to mind a few days ago was 12/15/2009 which seemed to have a similar storm track. Oddly enough, that one isn't on the CIPS list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 how much farther se basically on top of the GEM from Goderich, Ontario through just north of Toronto.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Agreed. Feel good about a slp track right around Chicago, give or take 50 miles. Some interesting events showing up on CIPS. The one that came to mind a few days ago was 12/15/2009 which seemed to have a similar storm track. Oddly enough, that one isn't on the CIPS list. Where did that one go? I only have 20s and flurries recorded for that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Sorry, Geos - I f'd up the dates. Actually, there are two recent storms with similar tracks that aren't showing up on CIPS as of yet. 12/20/2012 12/8-9/2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The morning LOT afd wasn't really buying front end dump prospects but did mention some snow possible initially. I wonder if any of the long timers at the office were able to think of a previous sig snow to rain scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Sorry, Geos - I f'd up the dates. Actually, there are two recent storms with similar tracks that aren't showing up on CIPS as of yet. 12/20/2012 12/8-9/2009 Ahh. Remember those two. First one was pretty much a last minute NW trended and the other one grabbed too much marine air and flung it back. Forecast really busted hard on that '09 one here. Got a story for that one... I remember I had a final scheduled on the 9th and the professor said if the weather is too severe, I'll move the final to the next day (since most students were commuters). Next morning there is 3" of slop on the ground, less on the pavement. So I figured, darn, gotta go and take a final after all. Get to campus and there is almost no one there. Turns out the Governor just went ahead and closed all Universities and schools because Madison got 20". He thought the whole state got buried! lol. Well I got an extra day to study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I think the CMC is too far south. Probably the most southeast will go now. It gives the SE MI and Ontario folks some hope though. Agreed. Misses all of Iowa in terms of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I think the CMC is too far south. Probably the most southeast will go now. It gives the SE MI and Ontario folks some hope though. I'd take this scenario. Presque Isle and Alpena counties would get slammed in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Some of the GEFS maps. Track through Hoosier & Chicago Wx's old stopping grounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Low in OK closer to Tulsa and 2mb weaker than last 12z run. Low in SW slowed down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Low in OK closer to Tulsa and 2mb weaker than last 12z run. Low in SW slowed down some. This will come NW from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Euro not very impressed with the Sunday system. Probably won't bode well in terms of getting any substantial southward shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 This will come NW from 00z Will probably zig zag again. A definite track won't be nailed down until we know how strong the Sunday system is. EURO has been late to the party quite a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The euro has been a disappointingly poor performer this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Huge model differences in strength for the weekend system. Basically the EC/UKMET vs. everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The euro has been a disappointingly poor performer this winter.It and the GFS were the worst performers with the east coast blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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