mimillman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 A lot of very cold rain for Chicago. Looks like max temp of 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Quite different from the 0z GFS...still doing the zig zag movement with the sfc low and moving NNE Didn't think it went on a nice smooth track from St. Louis to north of Montreal. It's a big difference from that jog out to south central Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I guess some good news is the GEM ensembles seem to be taking the S track. Seems to be 2 clusters, 1 N and 1 S. Ensemble mean LP: (I can't get them to go in the right order, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I noticed that too ILWedges Still some NW members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 So very broadly it looks like EURO/GFS vs UKIE/GEM/NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Euro has the low tracking thru s.e Michigan so that is s.e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 So very broadly it looks like EURO/GFS vs UKIE/GEM/NOGAPS. EURO is s.e as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 So very broadly it looks like EURO/GFS vs UKIE/GEM/NOGAPS. I don't buy the Euro's track, it is way to erratic. Moves east then suddenly north northeast only to move east northeast once it gets close to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 All i care about is the euro was se of it's 12z run which took the slp to the bridge vs over top my head to the thumb on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Tracks GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 6z NAM is really strong with Sunday system and shoves baroclinic way south, well south of 0z GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 FWIW, Euro ensemble mean is decent. Bit off topic, but the SPC has a Day 5 30% down S. Mentions strong tors. What a dynamic system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 hpc FINAL UPDATE: THE NEW 0Z ECMWF DID TREND A BIT MORE PHASED ANDNEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING INTO THE GREAT LAKESON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND NORTHWEST SURFACELOW. THIS WAS A TREND TOWARDS THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS REMAINSMUCH DEEPER WITH THE LOW. THE PARALLEL GFS IS WEAKER AND MOREPROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...ADDINGSOME CONFIDENCE THAT THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO DEVELOPED AND DEEP WITHTHIS SYSTEM. THINK THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME ISSOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE 0Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM...CLOSER TO A GFS TRACKWITH AN INTENSITY CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS TO FITCURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE DATA BEST. STILL SLIGHTLY BELOWAVERAGE CONFIDENCE GIVEN THIS IS A PRETTY BIG MODEL SHIFT FROMSEVERAL CYCLES AGO...AND THE FACT THAT THE 0Z GEM/UKMET AREHOLDING STEADY ON THE SOUTHEAST MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 06z GFS with a solid hit across parts of N IL and Southern Wisco...DVN does quite well as does a decent chunk of the northern 2/3 of michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 06z GFS with a solid hit across parts of N IL and Southern Wisco...DVN does quite well as does a decent chunk of the northern 2/3 of michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Op gfs continues to slide se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Op gfs continues to slide se not a good trend for my area, still hoping for 6"-9" though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 06z GFS with a solid hit across parts of N IL and Southern Wisco...DVN does quite well as does a decent chunk of the northern 2/3 of michigan I think we have 2 positive trends right now over the past day or two...first the obvious recent strengthening trend in system 1. It's modestly effective at shoving the baroclinic zone south over the great lakes but by the time the system winds up, it's effect is muted. This will help with front end dump prospects but real change will need to come from the south. the second is the progression/strength of the H5 trough, i was always a little suspicious how fast it was closing off but if compare h5 at 12z monday on the 6z GFS to yesterdays 12z, you see the change. The NAM is a much more extreme version and will probably trend at least some towards the GFS. The end result is the upper levels don't wrap as much over the southern rockies and lee cyclogenesis is driven south. (if h5 trends improve) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Never underestimate the power of Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Never underestimate the power of Geos. Uncanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Truly fascinating how this is all playing out. That Sunday wave sliding in from the west may end up being the bigger story here. Although the 06z GFS wasn't as strong as the 0z run, it still produces about 4-5" for MSP. It will be interesting once the NAM gets into range. So many moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Truly fascinating how this is all playing out. That Sunday wave sliding in from the west may end up being the bigger story here. Although the 06z GFS wasn't as strong as the 0z run, it still produces about 4-5" for MSP. It will be interesting once the NAM gets into range. So many moving parts. NAM and the GFS are currently really far apart by the end of the run, for obvious reasons i'm hoping the globals trend towards the NAM but it's all on it's own right now and well outside its best range. GFS NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 If the NAM were to verify, the bigger event here would be Sunday night/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Could even be a decent low-topped line of thunderstorms along the advancing cold front from IL into IN with the first system as well. Decent wind fields in the lower 3km could help provide some brief strong gusts with that advancing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The big story with this system has to be the winds. Really impressive looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Truly fascinating how this is all playing out. That Sunday wave sliding in from the west may end up being the bigger story here. Although the 06z GFS wasn't as strong as the 0z run, it still produces about 4-5" for MSP. It will be interesting once the NAM gets into range. So many moving parts. Out of curiosity, how often does MSP get big dog snowstorms? Maybe my memory has been a bit fuzzy, but I feel like it's been quite a while since MSP got ploughed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Out of curiosity, how often does MSP get big dog snowstorms? Maybe my memory has been a bit fuzzy, but I feel like it's been quite a while since MSP got ploughed. MSP doesn't get many big dogs. The last one was Dec 2010 when the Cities got 17". That was 5th biggest all-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 NAM and the GFS are currently really far apart by the end of the run, for obvious reasons i'm hoping the globals trend towards the NAM but it's all on it's own right now and well outside its best range. GFS NAM Yeah they are pretty far apart for sure. All eyes on Sunday when the energy hits the coast. If it hits farther south and the trough is sharper than is currently modeled, you lucky bastards are money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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