IllinoisWedges Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 00z UKMET takes the low near IND. Well then, that's a big change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 00z UKMET takes the low near IND. Keep the south train rolling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Pulling into Chicago at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 BL temps are marginal on the CMC even as far west as Cycloneville. But still looks like all snow on the IL-IA border-- significant at that-- and a front end thump for most of LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 It's Congrats Cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 No matter what happens, it sure is nice to see a relatively wide swath of sig snow. Of course not everyone in the sub will get in on wherever this thing lines up, but it's nice to see something other than a 100-200 mile wide swath of significant snows showing up. Thread the needle events are sort of depressing to track lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Wow what a shift in the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Things are moving in a much more positive direction for the Central/Lower Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 No matter what happens, it sure is nice to see a relatively wide swath of sig snow. Of course not everyone in the sub will get in on wherever this thing lines up, but it's nice to see something other than a 100-200 mile wide swath of significant snows showing up. Thread the needle events are sort of depressing to track lol. Too much drama. Can we order up a GFS/GGEM blend and knock it south 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Too much drama. Can we order up a GFS/GGEM blend and knock it south 50 miles. Ha, yeah works for me. Not be negative, but the GEM has buried us many times this season. The overall trend however is definitely looking pretty uplifting for those of us who wanted a southeast shift compared to the past few days. Still a long ways to go, but it's nice to see. Glad I never officially threw in the towel. One of our local TV mets went on a bit of a rant tonight on facebook. Basically tired of certain peeps on social media posting map images of models well in advance of an upcoming storm. Can't blame him. As a TV met (or any op met for that matter) it's gotta be a bit tiresome fielding questions about hype generated from this type of stuff on social media.. https://www.facebook.com/108744455887159/videos/984017528359843/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 pick any model....that jet streak across the CONUS means business... agree Cyclone (edit: on both posts lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I hear the GFS Ensembles are clustered back toward a track near Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I think another 24-36 hours will tell the tale in general where the track will likely end up. Probably until Sunday night will be able to pin point a rain snow line within a narrow corridor. Yeah that was some rant by Erik. Don't blame him though. This was the Kuchera ratio map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I hear the GFS Ensembles are clustered back toward a track near Chicago.00z: Same time on 18z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The GEFS mean is pretty much where the CMC OP is. I would expect some of those far right and left solutions to start disappearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 That run verbatim is one of the better snow to rain scenarios that I can recall for the LOT area. Take Geos land for example...heavy snow with big amounts and then driving rain by 120 hours. Would be interesting and you'd have to wonder if sfc temps would be slower to respond if a lot of slow gets laid down.I don't think I can recall any similar example since I've been here. Anyone have any example Idea of a significant front end thump is a reasonable scenario given recent trends. Could see a snowpack slowing warming a bit. Also wonder how much sleet there will be with 925 mb level staying colder longer. To get sleet like 12/28 is a pretty unique setup though, need to have the refreeze energy down low outweigh the warming aloft. If surface warming is slowed by snowpack, could be that most places do go over to rain but freezing rain a lingering issue over north central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 This general consensus of moving the Low ENE instead of NE and somewhat NNE is better for many of us. Sorry, Chicago Storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Snow to rain events are rare around here. I have to say, I can't remember any off the top of my head. It seems that if it does warm up during the storm, it just dry slots here and really doesn't rain appreciably. I vaguely remember a few in the 90s, but I can't tell you when they were. Almost want to say one happened during the super el Niño, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 72 hours and the low is still over the Grand Canyon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 ^Higher heights in the Great Lakes compared to 0z run yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I don't think I can recall any similar example since I've been here. Anyone have any example Idea of a significant front end thump is a reasonable scenario given recent trends. Could see a snowpack slowing warming a bit. Also wonder how much sleet there will be with 925 mb level staying colder longer. To get sleet like 12/28 is a pretty unique setup though, need to have the refreeze energy down low outweigh the warming aloft. If surface warming is slowed by snowpack, could be that most places do go over to rain but freezing rain a lingering issue over north central IL.I racked my brain trying to come up with something and I sorta did, but it was more of a central IL event I think. April 10-11, 1997. A band of snow developed down south and hit places like PIA hard before changing to rain.I almost expect something to happen (a rainier scenario or a snowier scenario) because of the rarity, but as of now there's pretty decent agreement on the thump idea for northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 For comparison last night at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Based on 90 hours, this is coming west and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 That's where the CMC had the low at the same time. Little warmer out ahead it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Quite different from the 0z GFS...still doing the zig zag movement with the sfc low and moving NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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