Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Man, it's even stronger this time around. This lead wave is going big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Man, it's even stronger this time around. Yep. Wouldn't be surprised to see the main system nudge south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Yep. Wouldn't be surprised to see the main system nudge south. It did. Now we got two systems to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 South we go let's go!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The main storm's at least a little further south in southern Plains at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 102 hours. Snow band is further south, streaking out into MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Slightly further south at 108, but some of the bigger differences I was seeing earlier are getting more muted. Should be an incremental improvement. Likely not a jump though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Low east at this hour compared to 18z. Starts to hook after MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Looks a little colder...could result in a better front end thump for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Lead storm being stronger is helpful to an extent, but the fact that it hauls ass rather than forming a block over Labrador/N Quebec really limits its usefulness. Going to need the main storm to tread weaker/faster and have less interaction with the energy dropping out of the Canadian Prairies to have a DGEX like solution. So far the more reputable models aren't buying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Madison looks like the place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Parts of N IL get clobbered before a change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Pretty much stays at or below freezing here up until the dry slot - not quite but close. Big numbers showing up in southern WI, holy cow! A definite shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Pretty much stays at or below freezing here up until the dry slot - not quite but close. Big numbers showing up in southern WI, holy cow! A definite shift. IMO, there's more sleet into Chicago than that lets off. 925mb is AOB through 114 south of Gary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Geos can you pull the magnet just a bit more south? Good work so far ! Trends are encouraging. It'll be interesting to see if the ensembles stay east of OP like 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Parts of N IL get clobbered before a change to rain.That's the importance of the colder air being much farther south because of Sunday being stronger. Warmer air does rush back north but you also get an increase in baroclinicity due to that which intensifies the frontogenetic response. In addition, a source of wet bulbing from the strengthening northeast flow as the low lifts northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Yeah not at all worried about a lame storm IF it does go a little further south for areas not in the brunt right now. Long ways to go but this is going to be a juicey one for great lakes standard's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 IMO, there's more sleet into Chicago than that lets off. 925mb is AOB through 114 south of Gary. It's tricky as the temp profiles rapidly change. The refreeze layer is decently cold but I'm not sure if it would be quite enough for significant sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 IW map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 also of note....off the pacific coast at 12z 01FEB....tonights 00z gfs v last nights 00z gfs....tonight has a ridge or inverted trough developing over the waters off the coast vs last night it having a new trough developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 That's the importance of the colder air being much farther south because of Sunday being stronger. Warmer air does rush back north but you also get an increase in baroclinicity due to that which intensifies the frontogenetic response. In addition, a source of wet bulbing from the strengthening northeast flow as the low lifts northeast. That run verbatim is one of the better snow to rain scenarios that I can recall for the LOT area. Take Geos land for example...heavy snow with big amounts and then driving rain by 120 hours. Would be interesting and you'd have to wonder if sfc temps would be slower to respond if a lot of slow gets laid down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 TT snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Much more of a smooth ENE sfc low movement this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 That run verbatim is one of the better snow to rain scenarios that I can recall for the LOT area. Take Geos land for example...heavy snow with big amounts and then driving rain by 120 hours. Would be interesting and you'd have to wonder if sfc temps would be slower to respond if a lot of slow gets laid down. I'm literally on the freezing line at 120 hours. The position of the rain/snow line didn't really change from the 18z run at 0z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I'm literally on the freezing line at 120 hours. The position of the rain/snow line didn't really change from the 18z run at 0z Wednesday. According to this it would be a little above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 According to this it would be a little above freezing gfs_T2m_ncus_21.png My point was that it was really close. Doesn't matter at this point anyways. CMC is coming in southeast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The differences in models regarding the first system are astronomical, so many many changes are still to come for the main event for sure...983mb over Lake MI on GFS vs. 996mb over Quebec on GEM.....ya that is a bit different...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Hey, I found a GEFS plumes page. I have been looking for a good GEFS plumes page for a while! http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 00z UKMET takes the low near IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 CMC has the low over STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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