mimillman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Thanks, I wasn't sure where/what he was looking. Sounds like what the EURO was doing with the west tracks before 12/28. I heard the low enters SW Iowa, weakens, and then it jumps east It does. Center of LP ends up over Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 It does. Center of LP ends up over Chicago. EURO didn't learn anything from a month ago. Probably not the last run will see like that then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 EURO didn't learn anything from a month ago. Probably not the last run will see like that then. Arent the GFS and the UKMET showing generally something similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Seriously....TWC is a friggin hype machine, not a weather news service. That's just poor to post that graphic TWC is to weather what Fox is to news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Arent the GFS and the UKMET showing generally something similar? mean SLP near chicago has good support right now...how they get there is all over the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 mean SLP near chicago has good support right now...how they get there is all over the map Right just stating that Ukie and GFS are relatively hard left on the onset as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Arent the GFS and the UKMET showing generally something similar? The path is totally different. It's repeating the 12/28 scenario all over again. EURO has an unrealistic hard left turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The path is totally different. It's repeating the 12/28 scenario all over again. EURO has an unrealistic hard left turn. doesn't look at all unrealistic given the modeled h5 setup you can tell when the SLP is sitting over Vegas that it would cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 doesn't look at all unrealistic given the modeled h5 setup you can tell when the SLP is sitting over Vegas that it would cut. I know it could, but we've all been burned on the EURO this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I know it could, but we've all been burned on the EURO this winter. GFS has the same general look at h5 over the southwest @hrs 90-100, unless we get the trough looking more like this, it's going to send the low straight overhead and bring p-type concerns throughout the CWA same look on the GFS, neutral tilt, elevated heights in the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 GFS has the same general look at h5 over the southwest @hrs 90-100, unless we get the trough looking more like this, it's going to send the low straight overhead and bring p-type concerns throughout the CWA same look on the GFS, neutral tilt, elevated heights in the plains Yeah I definitely agree we want it to stay positively tilted as it goes through the southwest. I'll have to dig through the sleet storm thread and see if your map matches up in the SW at all. Anyway, here is the ensemble and operational low tracks. Operational CMC moved the most since the 0z run. OP GFS really didn't move much through IL. It bends to the east more now in upper lower MI. (Somehow the operational GFS track disappeared on the map), but it's basically from Quincy to ENW to Rogers City.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 FWIW...WPC leaning away from the GFS on most of aspects (direct and indirect) involved with the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 FWIW...WPC leaning away from the GFS on most of aspects (direct and indirect) involved with the system Interesting. So what is the preference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Demetrius Ivory of WGN posted a EURO animated snowfall map. Secondary deformation band formed behind the departing low to give Chicago 6". https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=929515743806246 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 WPC.... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 153 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRI AND CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SUNDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET BLEND THRU 30/12Z... 12Z ECMWF/CMC BLEND AFTER CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PRIOR TO 30/12Z... BELOW AVERAGE AFTER MODELS ARE FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY...WITH ONLY THE 12Z UKMET DEPARTING BEING FAST ALOFT AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW. BY 30/12Z SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE...WITH THE 12Z GFS BECOMING TRENDING DEEPER AND MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS WITH A DEEPER SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY; COUNTER TO THE DAY TO DAY TREND SEEN IN THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS THAT WERE TRENDING TOWARD THE FLATTER SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS/GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE 00Z ECENS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN WITH THE FLATNESS AND ORIENTATION OF FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY; THE 00Z GFS WAS WELL IN LINE WITH THIS. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE SOLUTIONS AND FAVORS THE FLATTER SOLUTION WHILE ALSO DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SFC TROF/BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS; HOWEVER TRUE TO ITS BIAS IS A BIT STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THE WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MORE WHICH IN TURN AFFECTS THE QPF ACROSS THE AREA IN A SIMILAR MANNER TO THE GFS. THE 12Z CMC IS INITIALLY A BIT SLOW PER USUAL TO THE OPERATIONAL SUITE...AND HAS A SIMILAR FLATNESS TO THE FLOW HOWEVER DUE TO A SLIGHTLY FASTER DOWNSTREAM WAVE ACROSS CANADA AN INFLECTION/WAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF DAY 3 WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE THOUGH A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AS A WHOLE IN DEVELOPING THIS WEAK INFLECTION. THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE TO THE 12Z ECMWF TO REPRESENT THE ECENS MEAN AND LONGER TERM CONTINUITY. AS SUCH WILL SUPPORT A NON-UKMET BLEND THROUGH LANDFALL OF THE WAVE INTO THE NORTHWEST THRU 30/12Z...AND A 12Z ECMWF/CMC BLEND AFTERWARD. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY STRONG INITIALLY AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE NON-UKMET BLEND; BUT QUICKLY CONFIDENCE REDUCES TO BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS LARGER SPREAD/FLATTER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 3... LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST LATE SAT DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CA SUNDAY NIGHT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 12Z NAM/ECMWF BLEND CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE INCREASES MODEL SPREAD EXISTS WITH THE DEVELOPING LONGER WAVE TROF IN THE LEE OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE RUN TO RUN ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ECENS MEAN REMAINING RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WHILE THE GEFS/GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION THOUGH A BIT FLATTER WITH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE COMPARATIVELY TO THE ECMWF/ECENS MEAN. THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE EVEN MORE SO THAN THE ECENS MEAN. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN COMING INTO PHASE WITH INCREASING OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT AND IS MOST IN LINE WITH TIMING OF THE EARLIER FAVORED 00Z ECMWF MAKING IT A MORE VIABLE POSSIBILITY. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO TREND IN THE ECMWF DIRECTION PARTICULARLY WITH THE UPSTREAM WAVE THOUGH TIMING OF THE TROF IS STILL SLOWER AND STRONGER -- CLOSER TO THE 00Z UKMET AND CMC IN TIMING BUT ALSO THE STRONGEST OF THE SOLUTIONS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 12Z UKMET AND CMC TO THEIR 00Z COUNTERPARTS STILL A BIT SLOWER AND STRONGER WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z RUN IN TIMING IF MAYBE A SHADE BIT STRONGER; STILL FURTHER CONFIRMING CONTINUITY. BEST LIKELIHOOD OF POSSIBILITY WOULD BE TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECENS MEAN...WHICH REMAINS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF MASS FIELDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS BLEND. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... GALLINA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Demetrius Ivory of WGN posted a EURO animated snowfall map. Secondary deformation band formed behind the departing low to give Chicago 6". https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=929515743806246 That looks more like the front end plus an inch or so on the back end. And IMO it's overdone, not sure what algorithm they're using to calculate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 That looks more like the front end plus an inch or so on the back end. And IMO it's overdone, not sure what algorithm they're using to calculate that. yep and yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 That looks more like the front end plus an inch or so on the back end. And IMO it's overdone, not sure what algorithm they're using to calculate that. Was just going to post that...looks like the front end based on the time that the bulk of the snow occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 output_XVLfyE.gif keep up the good fight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Could anybody kindly recommend a link to their favored website to view the Euro model.. Tyia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Congrats MSP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 long range NAM looking better than the GFS over the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 long range NAM looking better than the GFS over the southwest Yep. Baroclinic zone is further south and lower height field/less ridging east of the four corners thanks to the nrn stream wave being further south/slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 long range NAM looking better than the GFS over the southwest Better....maintain that to the east a ways and we are in bidness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Better....maintain that to the east a ways and we are in bidness something like that would definitely be east of the GFS the tricky part is getting consistent globals to trend towards the 84hr NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I believe the NAM nailed the November storm before the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 That looks more like the front end plus an inch or so on the back end. And IMO it's overdone, not sure what algorithm they're using to calculate that. Looked like a back end feature to me, but I dont' have access to the maps. NAM did really well with the November system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Ricky throwing us a bone IT'S STILL OVER 100 HOURS OUT FROM ANY SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS FROM THE STORM LOCALLY AND PARENT WAVE IS STILL WELL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. UNSURPRISINGLY ...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY IN THE ALL IMPORTANT SURFACE LOW TRACK AND TIMING INTO TUESDAY ON THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. RECENT RUNS OF GFS HAVE BEEN BY FAR MOST AMPED/NW WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACK...WHILE ECMWF IS FARTHER EAST. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN THAT GET OUR AREA IN THE MOST FAVORABLE WINTRY PRECIP PATH INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS AND MANY INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY RUNNING FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH LOW TRACK...SO CANNOT RULE OUT FUTURE SHIFTS TO COLDER/SOUTHEAST WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. KEY WILL LIKELY BE HOW FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST MIDLEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 18z GFS is slower/stronger with the sfc low across the plains on Sunday morning and drags the baroclinic zone south behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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