Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Nice Hawkeye. Baroclinic zone gets pushed farther south by that low south of Hudson Bay. How far south that gets and how much height building goes on behind it is the key to this puzzle imo. CMC has gotten quite a few tracks correct this winter. I'll post some color maps when they come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Aren't the GGEM and RGEM the Canadian models? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Cold rain, followed by flash freeze and flurries. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I don't think the EPS was posted this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I'm about ready to call off this storm if the models (aka GFS) continue to show just a cold rain for us. Hopefully the models shift the track a bit to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Really don't get how anyone in IA is already throwing in the towel lol Still 120hrs before any flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Really don't get how anyone in IA is already throwing in the towel lol Still 120hrs before any flakes Yeah really. GFS is now the most NW and warmest for eastern Iowa. I think CID stands a much better chance at big snowfall numbers than here. Neutral tilt, even slightly positive still on the CMC until central Oklahoma this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I'm about ready to call off thus storm if the models (aka GFS) continue to show just a cold rain for us. Hopefully the models shift the track a bit to the south. The GFS seems to be the farthest north and west now. The Canadian, Euro, and Japanese (JMA...which can be a joke) are all farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 A few differences i saw on GGEM vs GFS.... HP on the backside of the trough in the SW was a bit stronger on the GGEM... The vort along the west Canadian coast at H42 was stronger on the GGEM compared to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Really don't get how anyone in IA is already throwing in the towel lol Still 120hrs before any flakes Lol. Yea I can see posters from semi and N.Ohio throwing in the towel but Iowa...jeez tough crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 A few differences i saw on GGEM vs GFS.... HP on the backside of the trough in the SW was a bit stronger on the GGEM... The vort along the west Canadian coast at H42 was stronger on the GGEM compared to the GFS And the high to the north is stronger on the GGEM. Warm front stays south of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Lol. Yea I can see posters from semi and N.Ohio throwing in the towel but Iowa...jeez tough crowd We threw in the towel for the winter, let alone this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I get more on the GFS run than the Canadian! We need it to flatten out a bit more, and then Chicago to Detroit could still get in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 12z GEFS ticked colder, obviously lots of deep members/rainers but the entire baroclinic zone running from the plaints into the lakes took a baby step southeast, h5 heights are lower across the east as well. Could be noise but there is a lot of time left for small incremental changes like this to add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 12z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 12z GEFS ticked colder, obviously lots of deep members/rainers but the entire baroclinic zone running from the plaints into the lakes took a baby step southeast, h5 heights are lower across the east as well. Could be noise but there is a lot of time left for small incremental changes like this to add up. Hopefully the GFS runs are the farthest NW we see the possibilities go, and then things start shifting SE. Seems like many of the models are starting to do so. Interesting to see the GEFS go from very scattered on the 6Z to more consolidated in the Illinois area. I'd gladly take the 2 that are way over in Ohio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Really don't get how anyone in IA is already throwing in the towel lol Still 120hrs before any flakes I'm just sitting over here quietly wondering if I'll stay in the bullseye area over the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Looks like I will be making a trip to the Lake Erie shoreline....850's are NUTS...could be an impressive wind/wave event. Haven't taken too close a look but assuming these winds are in the warm sector I don't think anything much over 40-50kts will mix down to the surface. Still, the moisture transport from that kind of LLJ will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 UK just started working again.... has the 120 hr surface low position in nw Missouri, so it's taking the nw route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Ontario low this weekend coming in strong again. 984mb north/northwest of Thunder Bay. Much stronger than 24 hours ago as it goes by James Bay. Heights in northern Plains are rising quicker this run. ^Cold air is deeper over WI and MN compared to the last 12z run at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 ECMWF still looking a bit quicker than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Positively tilted and it goes NW. Weird run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Positively tilted and it goes NW. Weird run... It follows the closed off low. Not a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 It follows the closed off low. Not a good run. It's very sleety for YBY. Even front end sleet in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 It follows the closed off low. Not a good run. The Quebec low? Or is it another wave, in between time frames I can't see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 It's very sleety for YBY. Even front end sleet in Chicago. Wonder if there's a warm layer above 850 mb. If not, that may be a snow look with initial precip as evaporative and dynamic cooling tries to offset the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The Quebec low? nah, he's talking about how the models keep closing off the upper level low practically over the rockies which keeps pulling the SLP hard left...it's been consistently modeled...we can talk about better cooling and highs in canada all day but as long as that closes off so far west/north, it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Wonder if there's a warm layer above 850 mb. If not, that may be a snow look with initial precip as evaporative and dynamic cooling tries to offset the WAA.Perhaps at the very onset. 850 warms up very fast though. 925mb stays below freezing up until the dry slot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 The Quebec low? Or is it another wave, in between time frames I can't see. The sfc low is following the location of the negatively tilted low inside the trof itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 nah, he's talking about how the models keep closing off the upper level low practically over the rockies which keeps pulling the SLP hard left...it's been consistently modeled...we can talk about better cooling and highs in canada all day but as long as that closes off so far west/north, it's over. Thanks, I wasn't sure where/what he was looking. Sounds like what the EURO was doing with the west tracks before 12/28. I heard the low enters SW Iowa, weakens, and then it jumps east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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