Baum Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I think model support for a western cut (approx over NE IL) is excellent at this point, the GEFS slp mean (for many runs in a row) and the Euro are in agreement. Looking at h5 between 84-120 hrs you can really see how the pac jet pushes the trough east causing heights over the plains to rise and preventing the baroclinic zone from sagging in wake of the initial low. That's okay. If it stays cold enough for the WAA précip to be snow IOBY. Big if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 i haven't really paid much attention to front end prospects, kind of boring but i guess it's notable to see the euro rather bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Still time for things to change but based on how the models have been handling this storm aloft the last 6-7 runs, unless I see the sfc low travel through LA/MS, it's almost certainly going to be crud imby. I don't see much hope for Toronto either. Too much model consistency with us well in the warm sector. Cold and dry periods followed by rainstorms... story of this winter. The worst. One day, Toronto will get a snow storm... out of Chicago, Detroit and Toronto, we are definitely the big losers this decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 i haven't really paid much attention to front end prospects, kind of boring but i guess it's notable to see the euro rather bullishTo me, this is the type of storm-given moisture transport- could be a little more interesting. Sort of like the Valentines Day storm back in the late '80's. Of course, if my recollection is correct that moisture was heading into a retreating arctic high. Not the case here. Still, if the low goes overhead you could hope for a 4-6 inch thump before dry slot and a couple wind blown inches on the backside. Given this winter, beggars can't be choosers.http://www.apnewsarchive.com/1990/Chicagoans-Brave-February-Blizzard-Like-Conditions-With-AM-Storm-Rdp-Bjt/id-24ae6810e5baa59c6c4ee6a97fb182ca Note the warmth prior to the storm. Not sure if it was an El Niño year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 To me, this is the type of storm-given moisture transport- could be a little more interesting. Sort of like the Valentines Day storm back in the late '80's. Of course, if my recollection is correct that moisture was heading into a retreating arctic high. Not the case here. Still, if the low goes overhead you could hope for a 4-6 inch thump before dry slot and a couple wind blown inches on the backside. Given this winter, beggars can't be choosers. go big or go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Seems the EPS mean is nudging the slp a bit farther east, versus prior runs. Though knowing what happens in-between hours 120 and 144 would be helpful (does the track zig zag, reform, etc). Of course, where the mid-level lows track is also kinda crucial. Probably too early for people like hawkeye/cyclone/NE IL & S WI crews to completely abandon hope. Regardless of outcome, if things end up poorly...I hope the mod/heavy cold rains miss MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 feeling the south trend mojo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 feeling the south trend mojo it's real....fwiw, i'm in the bullish camp...BUT, if it cuts west of us I hope to watch a full fledged big dog bomb for wisco and iowa and Minnesota.... for the local IMBY'ers....it's not like we are trying to drag a modeled nor-easter to become a lakes cutter. This storm is quite doable still imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 To me, this is the type of storm-given moisture transport- could be a little more interesting. Sort of like the Valentines Day storm back in the late '80's. Of course, if my recollection is correct that moisture was heading into a retreating arctic high. Not the case here. Still, if the low goes overhead you could hope for a 4-6 inch thump before dry slot and a couple wind blown inches on the backside. Given this winter, beggars can't be choosers.http://www.apnewsarchive.com/1990/Chicagoans-Brave-February-Blizzard-Like-Conditions-With-AM-Storm-Rdp-Bjt/id-24ae6810e5baa59c6c4ee6a97fb182ca Note the warmth prior to the storm. Not sure if it was an El Niño year. This was pretty big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I don't see much hope for Toronto either. Too much model consistency with us well in the warm sector. Cold and dry periods followed by rainstorms... story of this winter. The worst. One day, Toronto will get a snow storm... out of Chicago, Detroit and Toronto, we are definitely the big losers this decade. El Nino winter. We knew this going in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 12z GFS looks like it's going back to a stronger 1st storm at 84. Hopefully that helps those of us looking for front-end wintry precip with the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 At 102 you can see the push of cold air behind the departing storm is stronger. Front gets well into the OV. But the s/w out west looks stronger this run too. Might be a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 12z GFS looks like it's going back to a stronger 1st storm at 84. Hopefully that helps those of us looking for front-end wintry precip with the main storm. doesn't look like it will be enough for meaningful change, still going to wrap up too fast out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 At 102 you can see the push of cold air behind the departing storm is stronger. Front gets well into the OV. But the s/w out west looks stronger this run too. Might be a wash. Yay. Two rainstorms instead of 1 within a couple days...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 doesn't look like it will be enough for meaningful change, still going to wrap up too fast out west yah, not going to work. edit: lol, may end up being worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 GFS continues to be super fast/aggressive with lee cyclogenesis...goes neg at H5 way west and heights crank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Seems like south central WI always winds up with a mix from systems like this so am happy to see the EPS with a south ward shift even if it might mean less precip. for us. If you did a composite ensemble of the GEPS, EPS, and GEFS it would show the center tracking into south west lower Michigan. I think I could live with that.Too bad they don't make an ensemble out of more then one model as they do with the NAEFS which I note keeps Madison 850 temp at -4 with Chicago close to 0 thru the whole event. NAEFS I think is combination of GEFS, GEPS, and one other ensemble model. I'm told the other ensemble model is the Mexican. Not sure if that is true as I have never heard of or seen any reputed Mexican out put. Anyone one here know just what goes into the NAEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 yah, not going to work. edit: lol, may end up being worse. rain all the way up to moneyman land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 El Nino winter. We knew this going in. Of course we knew this, but it is disappointing that we haven't had a legit big dog since Feb 2013. And before then, 2008? It's felt a bit like west of Detroit and east of Buffalo seems to be snowmaggedon the last couple of winters, with us left in meagreness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 12Z GFS has a nice windstorm for Toronto... gusts of 65 knots potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Seems the EPS mean is nudging the slp a bit farther east, versus prior runs. Though knowing what happens in-between hours 120 and 144 would be helpful (does the track zig zag, reform, etc). Of course, where the mid-level lows track is also kinda crucial. Probably too early for people like hawkeye/cyclone/NE IL & S WI crews to completely abandon hope. Regardless of outcome, if things end up poorly...I hope the mod/heavy cold rains miss MBY. eps 120.png eps 144.png THAT is more or less where the storm needs to be to have a chance at some snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 12Z GFS has a nice windstorm for Toronto... gusts of 65 knots potentially. The swirling trash tornado enthusiasts should be stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 GFS at least looks better for Southern Wisconsin and Northern Lower Michigan than the 06Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Seems the EPS mean is nudging the slp a bit farther east, versus prior runs. Though knowing what happens in-between hours 120 and 144 would be helpful (does the track zig zag, reform, etc). Of course, where the mid-level lows track is also kinda crucial. Probably too early for people like hawkeye/cyclone/NE IL & S WI crews to completely abandon hope. Regardless of outcome, if things end up poorly...I hope the mod/heavy cold rains miss MBY. eps 120.png eps 144.png That's workable. Once we get more data on all the moving parts, this storm has a good chance of moving one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 GFS at least looks better for Southern Wisconsin and Northern Lower Michigan than the 06Z run. SE Michigan has no chance, so.... might as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Canadian still riding the south track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Canadian still riding the south track Front end thump on CMC!! YEAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Wow... storm really runs out of gas on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Looks like I will be making a trip to the Lake Erie shoreline....850's are NUTS...could be an impressive wind/wave event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Aren't the GGEM and RGEM the Canadian models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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