TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Basically, we need to get a disgustingly mild mid-winter system first in order to get the good stuff...hopefully... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Geos posted that map. Geos is a reliable poster who I trust. I apologize for nothing. I thought it was a weenie map they drew up. So I grabbed it from another forum. I thought it was appropriate coming from them. The reactions in here were pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Sensible write-up from MKX http://www.weather.gov/mkx/winterstorm020316 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Sometimes there is truth in jest, TWC could verify. If it does, Geos is the man. Josh will be posting snow angels next to his snow piles the morning after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Interesting to see how much stronger the NAM is on the initial system on Sunday....wonder how that may affect things later on. GFS is much more diffuse on this wave of energy...This storm alone on the NAM would be significant.... That's huge. It looks close up and a lot more compact than the GFS has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I thought it was a weenie map they drew up. So I grabbed it from another forum. I thought it was appropriate coming from them. Yeah, I don't blame you. Honest mistake. They, and the media generally, have got that rep so it's understandable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 NAM strong with the first system is unsurprising. We all know it's bias is to oversimplify at this range. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the GGEM do this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 18z DGEX was even better... :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Interesting to see how much stronger the NAM is on the initial system on Sunday....wonder how that may affect things later on. GFS is much more diffuse on this wave of energy...This storm alone on the NAM would be significant.... FWIW, the DGEX is essentially the long range NAM with the GFS' resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 FWIW, the DGEX is essentially the long range NAM with the GFS' resolution. Which is why it's terrible haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 NAM strong with the first system is unsurprising. We all know it's bias is to oversimplify at this range. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the GGEM do this as well. Now if others follow suit, then we might have something. Surprised the DGEX doesn't have widespread 2' amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Which is why it's terrible haha No doubt, lol. But the DGEX is still fun to look at when we're wondering what lunacy the NAM may have in store for us beyond the end of its operational run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 GFS 2mb weaker with this OK wave. Spins and spins near Las Vegas for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Looks like we had some HDOBs roughly 157W x 22N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Western trough is digging more but any benefit there may be offset by the weaker lead storm. I'm guessing status quo outcome with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Identical ejection spot. It's moving slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 That vort over the central Canadian Prairies at 120 looks ugly. It's stronger and more aggressive this run. Earlier phase would not be good. edit: yeah, this is not going to end well for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The slower speed in no good for the lower lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 meh.. This thing looks like garbage for most. That vort over the central Canadian Prairies at 120 looks ugly. It's stronger and more aggressive this run. Earlier phase would not be good. edit: yeah, this is not going to end well for most. The writing was on the wall the minute it ejected into the Plains north of Amarillo. Would need a strong high to the north to prevent it from going into the unknown which it is doing.. Not saying it stays on that course. Shouldn't have a decent handle on that till we are fully in the 120hr/day 5 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 MKX posted their thoughts on this system and mentioned the great degree of uncertainty over the region, which is depicted on this map. http://www.weather.gov/mkx/winterstorm020316 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I think this is going to be an MSP special any way you slice it. Sure, there's plenty of time, but this looks like their big dog. Cold rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 120 hour GEM. Low placement the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Skilling said it needs to be sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Skilling said it needs to be sampled. Yeah that's a good idea. 144 hours, near Pontiac. Surprised the 992mb low would end up that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 That weak low over Superior is probably what pulled it further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Low track wasn't all that much different really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Low track wasn't all that much different really. That looks like money for NE Iowa and SW Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Nice hit on the GFS. Good trends up this way. Took a quick peak at the GGEM ensembles. A few of them wrapping up the low super tight. Some close to going sub 980MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Take your pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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