KokomoWX Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 so is there no hope for me in Ohio? None. Nil. Nada. (I am in the same boat.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Nah, just sit back and watch the central lakes crew try to drive it eastward. There will be moments of glee, depression, last second hopes and then finally capitulation. It is the cycle of a weenie. that is priceless lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 so is there no hope for me in Ohio? 50F and rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Nah, just sit back and watch the central lakes crew try to drive it eastward. There will be moments of glee, depression, last second hopes and then finally capitulation. It is the cycle of a weenie. lol, so salty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Kuchera ratio map from the GGEM. I don't think it was posted. It only goes out to this hour. Still snowing in eastern WI and MI. Gives you an idea though. Maybe another inch in eastern WI, far northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 18z NAM has the SE CO low is about the same spot as the 12z GFS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Over Las Vegas at 102 hours Going to kick out in NE NM again. Low in Quebec stronger this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 CPC...for fun....fwiw.... has most of iowa, wisco, western portions of mich, and northern IL in the heavy snow and high wind circles for 02FEB thru 03FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Close to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Too fast, won't be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Trust me, it isn't. Snow is gone from N Illinois. WF is sitting in NC Illinois, LOL. At least there's some CAPE, right? Seems like the snow totals are down, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Low passes just south of Chicago/Gary. More backlash this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 06z DGEX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 The rain from this system should help to further diminish the remaining crud piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 GFS doesn't hook as much, which looks more GGEM'ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 06z DGEX... Finally a model on our side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Local met getting a bit reckless this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 lol, but he has 109 likes.... meanwhile, LOT is being realistic... ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SUPPORT ASIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOTHE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE INRESPONSE TO IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN UPPER JET AND DIGGING MID/UPPERTROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWEST. WE`RE STILL A LONG WAYS OFF FROM THISSYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA...SO THERE REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL SPREADWITH RESPECT TO TRACK....STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURESYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER FEATURES. ASSESSING PREVIOUS 2DAYS OF MODEL RUNS...BELIEVE THAT THE SUNDAY WAVE BEING STRONGERCOULD PLAY A ROLE IN A BETTER COLD SUPPLY/FARTHER SOUTH BAROCLINICZONE IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP SPREADING NORTHWARD LATE MONDAYNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEIN PLACE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.STRONG SOUTHWEST SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS ONE WITH GUIDANCE SHOWINGTENDENCY FOR CLOSING OFF AT MIDLEVELS OFTEN TRACK SLOWER INREALITY THAN PROGS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. IF THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIRIN PLACE...COULD BE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET IN WAAPRECIP ON TUESDAY...BUT A FARTHER NORTH BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAVECLOSING OFF FARTHER WEST COULD QUICKLY FLOOD WARM AIR NORTHWARDAND RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN. OF COURSE...STILL A SCENARIO IN WHICHWAVE DIGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO GET US IN THE PRIMARILY WINTRYZONE. STILL TOO EARLY FOR MUCH IN WAY OF SPECIFICS...AND POTENTIALSCENARIOS STILL RANGE THE GAMUT FROM A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOWSOMEWHERE IN THE CWA TO A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN TO HEAVY RAIN ANDEVEN TSTORMS AND FLOODING. WIDE OPEN GULF WILL RESULT INIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPCONTINUES TO BE A GOOD BET WHATEVER THE TYPE. FOR NOW...IN MONDAYNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITHRAIN/SNOW IN WEATHER GRIDS. WITH A STRONG SFC LOW EXPECTED...THEREWILL ALSO BE PERIODS OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AS WELL.COLDER AIR WILL RETURN ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM ON WEDS...WITH ANYPRECIP FAVORED TO BE IN FORM OF SNOW. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Local met getting a bit reckless this far out. Confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Local met getting a bit reckless this far out. That's a nasty gradient between Wahoo and Columbus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 18z GFS would have a potential severe threat as far north as I-70 in IL/IN. Brings 500J/kg of SBCAPE up to Kankakee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 DVN somewhat skeptical of the storm shifting further southeast at this point... ...THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE PACIFIC...CLOSERTO JAPAN THAN ANY OTHER LANDMASS THIS MORNING. THUS...THE MINORDIFFERENCES IN MODEL INITIALIZATION ARE RESULTING IN VERY LARGEDIFFERENCES IN RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL FORECASTS OF THETRACK...INTENSITY... PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN ORSNOW. THIS CAN BE SEEN THROUGHOUT ALL MODELS...BUT ESPECIALLY THEGFS WHICH HAS GONE FROM A MASSIVE SNOW STORM FOR OUR AREA TO ALIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW/RAIN EVENT. IN ANY CASE...WHEN WE ARELOOKING AT A STORM SO FAR AWAY...WE NORMALLY ARE JUST TRYING TOFIGURE OUT WHETHER IT WILL BE COLD/MILD...PARTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY...ANDWHETHER TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM 20 PERCENT TO 40 PERCENT.JUST BECAUSE OF THE HIGH IMPACT TO THE REGIONAL WEATHER...INCLUDINGTHE IOWA CAUCUS...DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE FORECAST FOR DAY 6 AND 7SHOULD BE VIEWED IN ANY KIND OF CONFIDENCE. THE ONLY MODEL NOWINDICATING HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FROM A WINTER STORM AT THIS TIMENOW IS THE GEM...WHICH REMAINS SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWFHAVE DECIDEDLY SHIFTED NORTH. I THINK THAT TREND MAY WELL BEAROUT...AS THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A LEADING TROF SUNDAY THAT ISDEEP ENOUGH TO SPREAD SUFFICIENT COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE MIDWESTTO WARRANT A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT MONDAY...AND THAT SHOULD ALSOLEAD TO LESS NEGATIVE FEEDBACK OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY. THUS AMORE NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED...AS RAIN/SLEET/MIXCOVER LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. IN ANYCASE...AS SAID AT THE START...THE ENERGY IS ON THE OTHER SIDE OFTHE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE...SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE FURTHER SHIFTSIN THE STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH. IT JUST MAKES MORE SENSE THATTHE STORM TRACKS FARTHER NORTH GIVEN WHAT I SEE AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 TWC going premature with the snowfall maps too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 TWC going premature with the snowfall maps too. lmao!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 a bit of irony....GHD 2012 showed up in the late stage analogs (H120) from the southern plains set...it featured a decent hit in the plains and some freezing rain closer to home here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 TWC going premature with the snowfall maps too. oh lord...riding the DGEX ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 lmao!! What model is that even! Thinking a big weenie drew that, that is probably from the 18-24" area. oh lord...riding the DGEX ... It's not the DGEX. Powerball posted that up on top^. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 What model is that even! It's not the DGEX. Powerball posted that up on top^. maybe they used the DGEX and took compaction off and bumped ratios to 20:1 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 TWC going premature with the snowfall maps too. wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I'm surprised they haven't named the storm yet then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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