Stebo Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 And then it goes almost straight north into the high... Occludes also. I will file that under the unrealistic solutions. It isn't going to drive right into that 1030mb high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Aleks call for a rainer last week looks to verify for mby. Congrats to those up north. still 5-6 days away anything can happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 And then it goes almost straight north into the high... Occludes also. the signal at h5 for rapid deepening has been obvious for days now, this will likely go boom and a hard left turn like that isn't unheard of...we just need digging to delay the inevitable long enough for the baroclinic zone to ease south. I think there is some good reason to suspect that will happen to some degree in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 not enough to save us but at least we went the right direction Another good bump in the digging the wave/further south sfc low department. Sfc low gets to nearly the Red River then into northwest AR to then just west of STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I will file that under the unrealistic solutions. It isn't going to drive right into that 1030mb high. famous last words prior to almost every bomb around here large highs be damned, that kind of h5 look with strong jet and open gulf is going to cut hard into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Latest Euro says Bo may need a bigger snowblower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 famous last words prior to almost every bomb around here large highs be damned, that kind of h5 look with strong jet and open gulf is going to cut hard into it Not saying it won't occlude but when it does it isn't going to keep driving north. especially with a strong elongated high. That is just doesn't happen. Bombs don't drive into highs they form on the backside of them as the high moves off to the east. This has the high right over top blocking the road. The weakness in the high is to the east, not the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 the signal at h5 for rapid deepening has been obvious for days now, this will likely go boom and a hard left turn like that isn't unheard of...we just need digging to delay the inevitable long enough for the baroclinic zone to ease south. I think there is some good reason to suspect that will happen to some degree in future runs. Remember what the EURO did initially with the sleet storm. It was so persistent cutting the low too far west for days, while the GFS and GGEM came to a track agreement fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Remember what the EURO did initially with the sleet storm. It was so persistent cutting the low too far west for days, while the GFS and GGEM came to a track agreement fairly quickly. I'd have to go back and look but I don't remember the exact solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 This needs to favor a AR/TX/OK location for the low prior to ejecting N/NE if LOT is going to participate in big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I'd have to go back and look but I don't remember the exact solutions EURO was persistent with bringing the low into central and even western Iowa at times. This map was the 12z run snow map from the 24th. It stayed like this until Sunday 12z. GGEM had the heaviest snow in eastern Iowa over Hawkeye for at least three runs. This was the 18z run of the NAM on Sunday the 27th! It agreed with the EURO until the last minute. For anyone wanting a refresher, the low passed over Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 The low needs to get to Little Rock and then southern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I really don't believe the low will barrel basically due north into the high as the Euro says... I'd imagine the Low would track over to the north east into Indiana and then Michigan in that situation, which would be good for our area depending on where the low tracks in the in the plains. Euro isn't realistic imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 From what I heard, the ULL (euro) acts to pull back the surface low to the west in Iowa. I think something like that was shown in the days leading up to the sleet storm - except it was doing that in western Iowa. Low goes from just west of STL to WSW of CID, then back NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Worst case, gotta like the chances for a quick front end thump in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 EURO control vs. para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 I will say the 0z Euro para track seems a bit more realistic but we'll see. It goes ENE from about Woodward, OK with no zig zagging. Moves over STL/SPI then SBN/srn MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I will say the 0z Euro para track seems a bit more realistic but we'll see. It goes ENE from about Woodward, OK with no zig zagging. Moves over STL/SPI then SBN/srn MI We saw a lot of bouncy positions of the surface low with the Dec 28 storm iirc, in part due to convection. I haven't checked the Euro in detail but could that explain what's going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Ensemble and control tracks. Pretty close agreement the low kicks out near AMA or just north there. The ensemble mean for the CMC does not look right. Not sure what's going on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Ensemble and control tracks. Pretty close agreement the low kicks out near AMA or just north there. yeah, that won't do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 We did at least get a bump SE in the 12z Euro ensemble mean snowfall (left) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 baby steppin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 JMA would rule here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 lol^ going full money man, JMA @ 168 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Another thing, several Euro members with 6-12" front end thumps even with the sfc low passing overhead here or just west. They juiced in the QPF department on the front end compared to the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Another thing, several Euro members with 6-12" front end thumps even with the sfc low passing overhead here or just west. They juiced in the QPF department on the front end compared to the op run Can you see where the low starts occluding on any of the members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Another thing, several Euro members with 6-12" front end thumps even with the sfc low passing overhead here or just west. They juiced in the QPF department on the front end compared to the op run Wxbell maps? Just asking since they are notorious for not differentiating sleet/ice from snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Wxbell maps? Just asking since they are notorious for not differentiating sleet/ice from snow. True but they have are colder at the low levels with a longer duration of snow but that's just a guess since you can't see temps aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Can you see where the low starts occluding on any of the members? Many don't hook like the op runs. Smooth movement off to the NE or ENE on some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 so is there no hope for me in Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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