Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 GFS is 1mb lower with storm coming out of CO. Going a little bit south of the 18z run, 2mb weaker near Enid, OK. GFS still not excited about that system. That's really nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 A little bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 SPC talking about the severe threat that is a accompanying this system. They have a Day 5 and 6 Outlook. TWC is talking about "long track tornado" potential with this system (going out on a limb, perhaps?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 3:51 AM, Geos said: A little bit faster. Weaker cold shot, stronger out west...it's going north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Not going to be good for those of us SE of the consensus snow swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 No good. Way north for most of us. Did this thing get sampled by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Uh oh....classic Friday night entertainment brought to you by the 0z GFS. Wowzers. 992 over NW IL at hr 96. No wave on Sunday really changes things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 First TSRA of 2016? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 3:51 AM, TimChgo9 said: SPC talking about the severe threat that is a accompanying this system. They have a Day 5 and 6 Outlook. TWC is talking about "long track tornado" potential with this system (going out on a limb, perhaps?) Not happening if this cuts so far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 That was a 120+ miles shift of the 6" line. Weird... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The GFS has what appears to be a squall line at hour 102 down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 4:08 AM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: The GFS has what appears to be a squall line at hour 102 down south. Pooooft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Wow, 10 inches to zero in one run..... what a giant kick to the gut for eastern Iowa. I figured the GFS was too amped with the Sunday wave, but if the wave is nothing but a mouse fart my area is in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 GGEM coming in slightly north as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I guess if the model can all of sudden form a substantial Sunday wave and take it away mostly in one run, then the 6z run might end up something totally different still. Only time will tell. CMC has what looks like a more pronounced first wave. 988 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Now that was "lame" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Now for fun we root how far west we can get it.kind of like ghd 2011 nw trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Starts in TX in a similar fashion. Freezing line cuts through Chicago on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 4:13 AM, Geos said: I guess if the model can all of sudden form a substantial Sunday wave and take it away mostly in one run, then the 6z run might end up something totally different still. Only time will tell. Agree with Geos here. Although trends aren't looking very great for us SE folk, we are still not really in the position where we can say for certain that a particular trend has occurred and the models stick with it. The models are clearly not very consistent at this point and only time will tell. But for now, things don't look too hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Well the models are nailing the weaker first wave again.. Hence I think it's going to trend bye bye Betty for eastern folks. Look out msp flirting with how long before we hear the first ping on the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 4:19 AM, homedis said: Agree with Geos here. Although trends aren't looking very great for us SE folk, we are still not really in the position where we can say for certain that a particular trend has occurred and the models stick with it. The models are clearly not very consistent at this point and only time will tell. But for now, things don't look too hot It's 90 hours away. We're not even within the range of the NAM yet and look at how many times that usually jumps around. As of this moment it is the GFS vs. EURO and CMC - and from what I can tell the NAM probably would be in the south camp as well. CMC is pretty good from I-88 on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 1:45 AM, Natester said: Do you work at NWS DVN? I've seen AFD's from DVN with the "gut" word, hence it made me wonder if it was you. Haha, nope. Overall today's trend continues to look pretty crappy compared to this time last night. Maybe the trend starts to reverse back the other way with tomorrow's runs. Still 4 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Canadian 996 near Terre Haute 00z 03FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 4:16 AM, UMB WX said: Now that was "lame" That's what she said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 4:24 AM, Geos said: It's 90 hours away. We're not even within the range of the NAM yet and look at how many times that usually jumps around. As of this moment it is the GFS vs. EURO and CMC - and from what I can tell the NAM probably would be in the south camp as well. CMC is pretty good from I-88 on north. I think the real Geos magnet comes from your optimism (and my optimism may help too)!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 4:25 AM, cyclone77 said: That's what she said. You big weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Optimism is the only way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 This map has be some kind of fluke around here. I've never seen anything like this and I don't foggiest idea how to explain what it is showing for the Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 4:32 AM, Geos said: This map has be some kind of fluke around here. I've never seen anything like this and I don't foggiest idea how to explain what it is showing for the Chicago metro. Maybe too much optimism??? It's called the Homedis snow repellant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.