HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 On 1/28/2016 at 11:43 PM, snowstormcanuck said: 18z GEFs is some eye candy. I wonder if that cold bias I heard about years ago has been worked out of it. Would add more credibility to its solution. Like with the old tale of the 06Z/18Z runs are worse, the GEFS seems to have fixed that problem long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 On 1/28/2016 at 11:45 PM, blackrock said: I imagine our two options are a northwest track with a strong storm of heavy snow in Iowa/northern WI,UP.....or a track southeast like the DGEX and GEFS show and a weaker system. Seeing how systems have been, if it takes the southeast route, it will probably be lame and not nearly as strong as a northern Great Lakes hit. Maybe not...look at some of the GEFS members that were just posted...some pretty strong ones with more southerly tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 On 1/28/2016 at 10:26 PM, Brewers said: Not going to happen. I'm gonna fire up my snowblower for our inch snowfall. I need to use up the gas in the tank. The winter of 2015-2016 lives on. I want it to die. Soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 On 1/29/2016 at 12:07 AM, Hoosier said: Maybe not...look at some of the GEFS members that were just posted...some pretty strong ones with more southerly tracks. I'll take that E9 member all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 There is an obvious path where east doesn't have to equal weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 On 1/29/2016 at 12:07 AM, Hoosier said: Maybe not...look at some of the GEFS members that were just posted...some pretty strong ones with more southerly tracks. This, misconception with this event that south for sure means a weaker solution. That is not the case. Think you could make a case for more QPF on the cold side if you get a further SE sfc low to tap some better moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 So many good ones to choose from! #19 is the best, but any of these are good: 3, 4, 7, 8, 11, 14, 15, 18, 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Parallel EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 On 1/29/2016 at 12:16 AM, A-L-E-K said: There is an obvious path where east doesn't have to equal weak. It's not "obvious" if it hasn't happened or there isn't evidence to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 With the exception of a couple of the above runs, MBY looks like it comes in on the moderate side. Lots of solutions between 4"-12" with a couple on the higher end of that, and one showing less than 4". So, we will just have to see what happens. Definitely going to the store for salt, and whatnot tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 On 1/29/2016 at 12:16 AM, Thundersnow12 said: This, misconception with this event that south for sure means a weaker solution. That is not the case. Think you could make a case for more QPF on the cold side if you get a further SE sfc low to tap some better moisture It's not a misconception with this event. It is what happens often with these lows that have moved on a path similar to what some of the farther southeast solutions are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 On 1/29/2016 at 12:33 AM, Geos said: So many good ones to choose from! #19 is the best, but any of these are good: 3, 4, 7, 8, 11, 14, 15, 18, 20. Some of those sure are beautiful! On 1/29/2016 at 12:07 AM, Hoosier said: Maybe not...look at some of the GEFS members that were just posted...some pretty strong ones with more southerly tracks. On 1/29/2016 at 12:33 AM, Geos said: So many good ones to choose from! #19 is the best, but any of these are good: 3, 4, 7, 8, 11, 14, 15, 18, 20. Some of those sure are nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Geos magnet starting to take effect. 18z GFS Ensemble mean around 9" for MKE. If only this were a couple days closer I could feel a bit more confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 ^ WPC hazard outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Lurking in the thread from Kansas. Obvious interest in this upcoming event. We were burned by the storm post-Christmas with suppression. The high pressure drained colder air in than forecast and the stronger El Ninos tend to keep the jet farther south...so those are a couple of things to consider with future model analysis. Sent from my SM-N910P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 On 1/29/2016 at 12:08 AM, Chitown Storm said: I'm gonna fire up my snowblower for our inch snowfall. I need to use up the gas in the tank. The winter of 2015-2016 lives on. I want it to die. Soon. Might get more snow out of the lead wave if the GFS is correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I wouldn't stress over a "lame" southern solution especially if you're east of guidance because as of right now it can't get much lamer for those of us that are.. With no real strong blocking if you will, I find it hard to phantom a real lame solution playing out if your are on the right side of the system. On 1/29/2016 at 12:44 AM, blackrock said: It's not "obvious" if it hasn't happened or there isn't evidence to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 With that fresh snow cover just north of the area from the lead wave, cold air drainage off that high will probably be stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 On 1/29/2016 at 12:44 AM, blackrock said: It's not "obvious" if it hasn't happened or there isn't evidence to back it up.It's really obvious sooo. East doesn't = weak. That's a fact. What were debating on it which path the Low takes in regard to the wind stream and other high pressures and other factors, not the strength of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 On 1/29/2016 at 1:32 AM, UMB WX said: I wouldn't stress over a "lame" southern solution especially if you're east of guidance because as of right now it can't get much lamer for those of us that are.. With no real strong blocking if you will, I find it hard to phantom a real lame solution playing out if your are on the right side of the system. Oh, I don't think it would be weak either if my location is on the east side of the system. I was talking about whether the low actually goes farther southeast and much of us are on the left side of the system. On 1/29/2016 at 1:41 AM, homedis said: It's really obvious sooo. East doesn't = weak. That's a fact. What were debating on it which path the Low takes in regard to the wind stream and other high pressures and other factors, not the strength of the storm. No, not really that obvious. At least not recently. Correction: Never mind, I think I get what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I don't think we'll have to worry about a weak system if we somehow find a way to track it to se mi. This has the hallmarks of a text book 6-12"+ Midwest cutter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 On 1/28/2016 at 11:33 PM, A-L-E-K said: Please continue your banter on the impending storm, I just wanted to say that this cracked me the F up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 21Z SREF 500's.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Yeah the goin' south movie graphic was pretty good! Might have to watch that now. End of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 00z NAM continues the idea of a stronger Sunday/Sunday night system, with much stronger cold advection in its wake. Will be interesting to see if GFS follows, since 18z run went that route. If the baroclinic zone gets shunted well south, that would at the least increase chances of a notable front end thump for northern IL/possibly NW IN and far southern WI even if main SLP track is not as favorable. Saw some posts earlier about the 12z Euro and there were no sneaky warm layers at onset for I-80 and north, so precip would start as snow on that run then transition to sleet then ZR and rain. ZR could be a problem for interior portions of far northern IL later into the day Tuesday if surface warm front doesn't make it up there with something like a Euro track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 On 1/29/2016 at 3:23 AM, RCNYILWX said: 00z NAM continues the idea of a stronger Sunday/Sunday night system, with much stronger cold advection in its wake. Will be interesting to see if GFS follows, since 18z run went that route. If the baroclinic zone gets shunted farther south, that would at the least increase chances of a notable front end thump for northern IL and far southern WI even if main SLP track is not as favorable. Saw some posts earlier about the 12z Euro and there were no sneaky warm layers at onset for I-80 and north, so precip would start as snow on that run then transition to sleet then ZR and rain. ZR could be a problem for interior portions of far northern IL if surface warm front doesn't make it up there. Helluva a pm AFD.....One of the best I've seen in reading them for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 On 1/29/2016 at 3:26 AM, Baum said: Helluva a pm AFD.....One of the best I've seen in reading them for a long time.Thanks! I hoped it wasn't too long a read to get some of the most important parts in about notable trends on the guidance and how it could affect things. Wish it wasn't the last AFD I'll be writing for this event, unless I'm called in to help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 On 1/29/2016 at 3:26 AM, Baum said: Helluva a pm AFD.....One of the best I've seen in reading them for a long time. Seriously. Great read and great take on the setup, RC. Those things are such a gift to dorks like all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The PM AFD pretty much spells out everything... Great read . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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