Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 It's a little early and obviously questions and details will remain but I feel there is and has been plenty to warrant a thread and seeing if I still have the mojo after starting the Super Bowl/GHD II thread. Below are the 12z GEFS ensembles and the mean SLP track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 GFS ensemble member snowfall accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Hopefully it digs further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Canadian playing ball...weaker and souther...but tough to tell if convection is messing up SLP path, strength.... still shows a nice swath of snow across the area though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Wisconsinwx back west towards MSP looks good. That's a pretty strong ensemble signal for this range + the model agreement on the general pattern at H5 is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 12z Euro holding on to a more southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 One thing to watch as SSC mentioned in other thread, with the clipper to the north forcing confluence to the east and a flatter track at that point. If the clipper is quicker and stronger this would help out those to the south and east. Stronger to me would be more questionable, quicker though won't be as clippers tend to move faster than model projection this far in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 12z Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GFS ensemble member snowfall accumulations gefs snow.png Some nice outcomes in there. Now this is quite a bit different than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I can dig it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Wow absolutely buried here on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Once again...Ohio is NOT invited to the party. I'm selling my house. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Wow absolutely buried here on the EuroSome good mojo already lol. We're weenieing out at LOT over this Euro run. Nice to see one of the operational runs depict exactly the evolution we need to get buried here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 What a sleet storm at my house verbatim on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Nice lake effect signal on the Euro. Much like the other two "big dogs" of recent past around GHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Wow absolutely buried here on the Euro Snow swath seems similar to something I have seen before.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Can't wait to answer questions about the 1.5' of snow we're getting over a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Canadian has it as well in a similar path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Look at that cut off in SEMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 8 long days to go. What a difference 24 hrs makes. Yesterday's 12z Euro showed about 18" here and a top 3 all-time storm. Now we're stuck with the GFS op run. Hype and meltdowns guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Canadian has it as well in a similar path. Not as developed as the EURO or GFS, but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 8 long days to go. What a difference 24 hrs makes. Yesterday's 12z Euro showed about 18" here and a top 3 all-time storm. Now we're stuck with the GFS op run. Hype and meltdowns guaranteed. Going to be interesting following this thread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Look at that cut off in SEMI It's freezing rain here, temps are 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 8 long days to go. What a difference 24 hrs makes. Yesterday's 12z Euro showed about 18" here and a top 3 all-time storm. Now we're stuck with the GFS op run. Hype and meltdowns guaranteed. IMO the model agreement on the western trough and potent h5 vort ejecting from the Rockies says hedge towards stronger / more organized solutions but with the raging nino jet you really have to wonder if the trough will be able to dig enough to allow a proper bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 We've seen this all play out before. The agreement that something is present is there, but shifts can happen so quickly that the totals are just guesstimates for now. Something to watch, especially come Thursday/Friday time-frame if that agreement is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I've begun stocking up on beer and toilet paper ever since yesterday's 18z run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 ^ I think the convection in the Pacific has been shifting westward, so that could help up out by keeping the fastest part of the jet stream further out in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Threat definitely looks best for the west at this juncture. Still, seems like there are 3 smaller systems in play before the main show around Groundhog Day, all of which will affect track/placement. The first being the system 12-24 hours out (seems to be locked in at this point). The second is the Jan 28-29 clipper, which has a chance to go sub 995mb and finally the more strung out clipper on the 30th-31st. Moving parts galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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