mdsnowlover Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Bastardi discusses the MJO quite often and I remember some references to this. Had to take a look back and did find one mention that in Feb/March time period that phase 3 is a cold phase but not phase 4. If I remember correctly at some point he attributed that to the el nino and the changing wave lengths. As far as the MJO forecasts at range the Euro hasn't been to bad but you might want to be leery of the GFS which has performed poorly during several stretches this winter. jb says a lot of things, 1/4 to 1/2 i ignore. This morning he just rambled, way to much, i skipped all but 2 min of his 8 min presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 take out this past storm and this winter is a colossal disaster you're 150% of climo snowfall next month, don't wait so long to make your therapist's appointment....I know, I know, the blizzard caused you to cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard or what JI said. howdy scraff, good to see you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 The euro and the CMC both show what can easily happen with an uncooperative Atlantic. No mechanism to lock cold air into place and drive energy underneath us. Both the euro and CMC have energy running across the lakes along with a shortwave to the south. Typical annoying type of setup. Ens h5 guidance around d10 are supportive of something like what the euro and CMC are showing. Obviously nothing is resolved or nearly close enough in time to overthink but big storm expectations over the next 10-12 days should be kept in check for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Many on here know what to look out for but I circled the problem area on this snip from d10 on the 12z euro. CMC is similar GFS isn't as hostile but has no southern shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The euro and the CMC both show what can easily happen with an uncooperative Atlantic. No mechanism to lock cold air into place and drive energy underneath us. Both the euro and CMC have energy running across the lakes along with a shortwave to the south. Typical annoying type of setup. Ens h5 guidance around d10 are supportive of something like what the euro and CMC are showing. Obviously nothing is resolved or nearly close enough in time to overthink but big storm expectations over the next 10-12 days should be kept in check for now. How about small storm chances? You know 1-3, 2-4? Have those become taboo around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 How about small storm chances? You know 1-3, 2-4? Have those become taboo around here? Once we get past the warm rainer I think small or mixed storm chances are definitely possible. Could get a weak NS wave that drops some cold snow or a snow to rain event on the heels of an escaping high. We could also time something more substantial with a good trough axis but leads on a storm like that would be similar to Feb 15. Nail biter even inside of 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Many on here know what to look out for but I circled the problem area on this snip from d10 on the 12z euro. euroh5anom.JPG CMC is similar cmc5hanom.JPG GFS isn't as hostile but has no southern shortwave. Bob, I think our hopes would lie in having one wave go by and then another having better timing than forecast by the Canadian or the Euro. Either the northern stream speeds up and pulls in cold air and we get a more sheared out southern stream system or we have something like the Euro is showing with another strong shortwave dropping down behind the first system. For getting some snow, it's not a horrid pattern. For getting a big storm it needs some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 jb says a lot of things, 1/4 to 1/2 i ignore. This morning he just rambled, way to much, i skipped all but 2 min of his 8 min presentation. I very rarely watch them (As in I haven't watched one since last year). I do follow his blogs though and I find that when you really look into what he says he is very knowledgeable. The problem is that he over hypes and goes to the extremes on everything and that has a tendency to bias his outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Bob, I think our hopes would lie in having one wave go by and then another having better timing than forecast by the Canadian or the Euro. Either the northern stream speeds up and pulls in cold air and we get a more sheared out southern stream system or we have something like the Euro is showing with another strong shortwave dropping down behind the first system. For getting some snow, it's not a horrid pattern. For getting a big storm it needs some work. Absolutely. It's not horrid at all. I just get the sense that expectations of another big storm may be running a little high right now. As we are moving forward in time the general look has moved away from quickly transitioning to something really tasty. I just like seeing snow fall even if it's not going to bury cars. A small/moderate or even mixed event is totally fine in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Many on here know what to look out for but I circled the problem area on this snip from d10 on the 12z euro. euroh5anom.JPG CMC is similar cmc5hanom.JPG GFS isn't as hostile but has no southern shortwave. Haven't looked at the 12Z ensembles yet but I wouldn't be surprised if the weakness you see to the east of the ridging you circled is actually suggesting the possibility of a 50/50 low which I think would be a game changer. Noticed on the 00Z ensembles that depending on the evolution and the track of the day 6 Great Lakes low there were more then just a few solutions that were actually showing one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 take out this past storm and this winter is a colossal disaster That's like saying other then winning the powerball last year sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Can't keep talking about day 10. At some point it has to become day 9...8...7. 10 days from today is Feb 7. The window is closing. Relax feb 7 isn't March 7. Our next window is prob mid to late feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Apparently, the ensembles look good in the eyes of CoastalWx, sooooo anybody see them yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Yeah, they do look good, but prolly a little better for those further north. Details not important at this pont though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Yeah, they do look good, but prolly a little better for those further north. Details not important at this pont though. They bigger story is probably the cold d12-15. Impressive signal on the means for such a long lead. Big storm chances still look pretty low but it's a very amplified pattern showing up with a deep longwave trough over the east and pretty stout +pna/-epo to deliver cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 They bigger story is probably the cold d12-15. Impressive signal on the means for such a long lead. Big storm chances still look pretty low but it's a very amplified pattern showing up with a deep longwave trough over the east and pretty stout +pna/-epo to deliver cold air.I don't need a big storm. 3-6" followed by cold is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 They bigger story is probably the cold d12-15. Impressive signal on the means for such a long lead. Big storm chances still look pretty low but it's a very amplified pattern showing up with a deep longwave trough over the east and pretty stout +pna/-epo to deliver cold air. I would gladly take a mini version of the last 2 winters. A light-moderate event or 2, maybe by way of clipper, with days of cold after. Not the norm in a strong nino, but doable. I would take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Relax feb 7 isn't March 7. Our next window is prob mid to late feb. It's obvious that you are a big snow chaser, which is fine. I, on the other hand, would like a period of cold with several small events. By Feb 20, the sun angle goes above 40 degrees, roughly the same as mid Oct. It changes things completely. If you're ok with a big snow that starts melting as soon as it stops, then yeah, you've got a good bit of time. Personally I don't like that type of winter weather. Gfs looks cold after about day 8. My hope is that we go into a below normal temperature regime for an extended period with several snow chances. I couldn't care less about another HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I would gladly take a mini version of the last 2 winters. A light-moderate event or 2, maybe by way of clipper, with days of cold after. Not the norm in a strong nino, but doable. I would take that in a heartbeat. Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 I don't need a big storm. 3-6" followed by cold is great. I'm good with that too. I'm basically hoping the airports log another 10-12" for the season. Would put this winter up there with some of the best. One to look back on and remember fondly. I'll always remember the blizzard as a benchmark storm forever but if we don't get a couple more events I won't remember the winter as a whole as a really good one from a seasonal perspective. As pointed out by gym, it's pretty uncommon for a winter with a really big storm to be eventless otherwise. Things look pretty good for Feb for now. The next 7 days aren't going to be much fun though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 We got a spectacular HECS after a record-setting dismal month of December. I'm not looking for, nor am I expecting, another similar type of system this winter. Though of course, I'd take one in an instant if such an event actually becomes possible again! For now, I'm on the quest for a couple more moderate-level (MECS?) snow events through the first part of March, which I think should be quite doable. That, and some decent cold in there as well. Something a'la the Feb-Mar period in 2014 or 2015, though I know we won't be as incredibly cold as last February. That would really make this winter a solid turn-around one and take a lot of the bitterness out of the record warmth in December. Too much to ask or expect the rest of the way? Maybe, though I don't think all that much. Far more reasonable/realistic than expecting we should get another 20" event, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I'm good with that too. I'm basically hoping the airports log another 10-12" for the season. Would put this winter up there with some of the best. One to look back on and remember fondly. I'll always remember the blizzard as a benchmark storm forever but if we don't get a couple more events I won't remember the winter as a whole as a really good one from a seasonal perspective. As pointed out by gym, it's pretty uncommon for a winter with a really big storm to be eventless otherwise. Things look pretty good for Feb for now. The next 7 days aren't going to be much fun though. Yeah, the minimum was 11" and that was 82/83. But we do futility pretty well in general so I'm just going to remember that we haven't hit February yet, so lot of time ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 howdy scraff, good to see you!! Haha. Always here. Seriously. Just never that much to contribute except some comedy here and there. I can't get enough of AMWX though. Was here when it was Eastern too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 take out this past storm and this winter is a colossal disaster You mean the biggest snowstorm we've pretty much ever had? Or at least for a good number of people, including BWI? That seems more than a bit unfair. I'll take a HECS or BECS and nothing else over a winter of small to medium stores anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Are some of you guys kidding me! You just had a massive and one of the best snow storms of all time, and you are complaining about the winter? Your subforum gets hit by more major snowstorms in 5 years than most do in 30. With that said hopefully we get back to some wintery weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 This is the long range thread. I'm sure we will have a rate the winter thread soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Are some of you guys kidding me! You just had a massive and one of the best snow storms of all time, and you are complaining about the winter? Your subforum gets hit by more major snowstorms in 5 years than most do in 30. With that said hopefully we get back to some wintery weather. One day people will realize Ji plays the weenie troll card. He's like the forum's comedy relief. Deep down we all want 5 more HECSs. Admit it Ryd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 One day people will realize Ji plays the weenie troll card. He's like the forum's comedy relief. Deep down we all want 5 more HECSs. Admit it Ryd My back doesn't but I certainly do. I missed 15 inches by 30 miles the last storm. It definitely hurts especially when the odad's are against you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Yeah, the minimum was 11" and that was 82/83. But we do futility pretty well in general so I'm just going to remember that we haven't hit February yet, so lot of time ahead. BWI only had 4.1" in 41/42 outside of the HECS- the rest of that winter was terrible; however, its extremely rare to be completely shut out in Feb so I think we'll get something, even if its just a 0.2" cartopper. I'm expecting a lot more though :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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