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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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No need to look at models.  My birthday is February 11th and almost every single year (maybe every single one?) there's been at least 1 accumulating snowfall that week in DC.  Lock it up.

Mine's the 9th. It is a money period for snow.

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Heh?

Phase 4 on the left set of maps shows AN temps and the poster above me said that the MJO had a higher significance in Phase 4 on the set of maps to the right, while the models are showing cold after a brief warm up between Sun-Tues. The 12Z GFS has the PV hanging out over and south of Hudson Bay by day 7.

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Phase 4 on the left set of maps shows AN temps and the poster above me said that the MJO had a higher significance in Phase 4 on the set of maps to the right, while the models are showing cold after a brief warm up between Sun-Tues. The 12Z GFS has the PV hanging out over and south of Hudson Bay by day 7.

 

Phase 4 shows a warm, wet composite with high significance. We are getting a cutter mid next week that will bring 60s over your head. I'm not sure how much more closely you want that to verify.

 

GEFS mjo plots want to bring it back closer or into phase 3.

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Phase 4 shows a warm, wet composite with high significance. We are getting a cutter mid next week that will bring 60s over your head. I'm not sure how much more closely you want that to verify.

 

GEFS mjo plots want to bring it back closer or into phase 3.

No, my point was that the models are NOT showing a typical Phase 4 MJO, hence why I said somebody better tell the models because med and long range they show cold.

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Ha, I obviously misunderstood "significance" and why I profess little knowledge of MJO beyond the weenie 8-1-2 progression. 

 

From the MJO discussion:

 

 

 

  • Right 8 panels: Displayed as in the left panel except showing the level of statistical significance. Purple/blue shaded areas (lower percentages) represent regions that have higher levels of statistical significance according to a Monte Carlo test (see details in methodology). In these plots, a significance level of 5% means that there is a 5% chance that the anomalies arise from random chance (also known as the 95% confidence level).
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My post said mid and long range, so I was referring to beyond the cold front passage on Wednesday next week and beyond.

 

Ok, I was thinking 3-7 for mid range so just a misunderstanding.

 

The Euro and GFS do appear to take very different paths out of phase 4. I know they aren't very reliable for mjo at these long lead times, but it does make me wonder how long the cold sticks around.

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MJO is hinting of a phase 3, *maybe* 4, as we venture out towards Feb 11. This is not a bad phase at all during a strong Nino episode.

 

jb said same thing

 

Bastardi discusses the MJO quite often and I remember some references to this. Had to take a look back and did find one mention that in Feb/March time period that phase 3 is a cold phase but not phase 4. If I remember correctly at some point he attributed that to the el nino and the changing wave lengths. As far as the MJO forecasts at range the Euro hasn't been to bad but you might want to be leery of the GFS which has performed poorly during several stretches this winter.

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Looking at the significance plots with the MJO, it doesn't look like phase 4 is a big signal for anything in JFM

 

combined_image.png

Bob , Scott Coastal Wx posted this link, background state , amplitude and individual months are what you should be referring to.

 

http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

 

Also we  have Allans stuff here on AMWX

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

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Bob , Scott Coastal Wx posted this link, background state , amplitude and individual months are what you should be referring to.

 

http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

 

Also we  have Allans stuff here on AMWX

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

Thanks Ginx. To be honest, I tend not to worry about the MJO when ens h5 progs inside of 15 days look half decent. When h5 looks like crap and the MJO supports it then I hedge towards suckiness. lol

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Thanks Ginx. To be honest, I tend not to worry about the MJO when ens h5 progs inside of 15 days look half decent. When h5 looks like crap and the MJO supports it then I hedge towards suckiness. lol

don't know where it started but MJO looks meh to me as far as  influence goes right now . I agree with you 100%

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