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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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we need a storm now followed by severe cold. This El Nino melting is depressing. Seeing tons of grass in Tysons Corner

It is almost a certainty that the snow you see on the ground will be gone as the heavy rain t storms and a few days in the 50s maybe 60s arrive next week....but looking at the set up the chance of new snow on the ground by V day looks good atm.

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1977-01-13

1970-02-14

1994-01-09

1983-02-01

1958-01-11

1998-01-11

1985-01-24

2013-01-22

2014-02-14

1990-01-25

 

Some OK ones in there. Some reminder of the look we were seeing early in the last go.. 1977 was a big one throughout the beginning of the blocking phase.

 

I tend to think the idea of something sooner rather than later is rushing it. I'd still favor mid-to-end Feb, though we could certainly get something prior and it's a bit easier to fall into something in Feb maybe just given it's been money lately.  Maps look good but neither -AO or -NAO is forecast to tumble much if at all into neg territory. Pehaps bumbling around near neutral is workable. Until I see signs a good -NAO isn't pretty key in Mod/Strong Nino in particular I'll probably remain somewhat reserved comparatively. But I'd still get the general feeling we'll get a quality look in Feb one way or another. We didn't really have as much of a more prolonged western ridge this past go so maybe that shifts things up a bit too.  Definitely no despair just not sure it's quite time to chase our next Cat 4 NESIS. :P

People see a great pattern and have to be reminded that our best chance is always as the pattern relaxes, especially if blocking is involved.  Sometimes we can get lucky with a pattern that produces multiple hits.  2010 being the best example, the storm that hit as that broke down didn't even really affect our area that much, the late Feb storm that hit NYC with 20" but we got 4 storms earlier from that pattern.  That is kinda like winning the lottery though, even in an epic pattern.  The 96 storm wasn't really the one as that pattern broke either, it was the storm 5 days later.  So it can happen, but even 96 the blocking was starting to relax I think by the time those 2 storms hit.  Have to be patient.     

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I actually am not too concerned with the long range snowfall means on the Euro at this point though. Looking at the individual members at roughly 6 to 7 days show a large spread with the low running to the lakes for a fairly short lead. The speed and variability of the track as well as the evolution of that low has the following weather all over the board. And the GFS ensembles are having the same issues as the Euro. Until the Euro and GFS can narrow down where and what that low will do I think we are going to see quite a bit of variability (more so then normal) on the models from run to run in their longer range. 

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People see a great pattern and have to be reminded that our best chance is always as the pattern relaxes, especially if blocking is involved. Sometimes we can get lucky with a pattern that produces multiple hits. 2010 being the best example, the storm that hit as that broke down didn't even really affect our area that much, the late Feb storm that hit NYC with 20" but we got 4 storms earlier from that pattern. That is kinda like winning the lottery though, even in an epic pattern. The 96 storm wasn't really the one as that pattern broke either, it was the storm 5 days later. So it can happen, but even 96 the blocking was starting to relax I think by the time those 2 storms hit. Have to be patient.

^^this

Archambault events are 'usually' our best shot at a biggie tho as noted, we can get a renegade big hit from time to time. Hedging my bet on the pattern repeating and a repeat Archambault, tho likely not on the same level as the last Blizzard, by mid/late Feb even possibly into early March as the -ao/-nao starts to flip. Going to take a practice in patience for many here. I am also not writing off any minor or moderate events prior. I think our next shot at a biggie, however, comes after re-establishing the pattern and the subsequent flip.

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Euro ensembles stepped back on the snowfall in the long range. Now showing a mean of 1 inch through day 16 in the DC/Balt corridor. Actually a pretty ugly look with 40 some members that show at best pity snow.

The h5 pattern looks really nice. If something close to that verifies, there will be snow ops. Its February, and we have a raging Nino. Our friends to the south may get a nice storm towards the end of the period. Were hints of that on a few of the members.

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^^this

Archambault events are 'usually' our best shot at a biggie tho as noted, we can get a renegade big hit from time to time. Hedging my bet on the pattern repeating and a repeat Archambault, tho likely not on the same level as the last Blizzard, by mid/late Feb even possibly into early March as the -ao/-nao starts to flip. Going to take a practice in patience for many here. I am also not writing off any minor or moderate events prior. I think our next shot at a biggie, however, comes after re-establishing the pattern and the subsequent flip.

right on ralph 2 other mets, including mitchium already notice almost identical setup being advertised

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Euro ensembles stepped back on the snowfall in the long range. Now showing a mean of 1 inch through day 16 in the DC/Balt corridor. Actually a pretty ugly look with 40 some members that show at best pity snow.

There are reasons to have some pause. It's not a dry period d10 - 15 on the means. Mean precip through the area is .6-.7". Temp and track issues are apparent.

The higher heights in the north atl off of NF imply that temps and track may favor warm and wet during precip. MSLP panels don't show cold hp getting locked where we need it. We could easily end up BN temps/AN precip/no snow during the period.

If mean h5 starts showing lower heights pressing down into eastern Canada and N atl with an elongated trough then our chances go way up. Plenty of time. We're a long ways away from a clear picture.

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There are reasons to have some pause. It's not a dry period d10 - 15 on the means. Mean precip through the area is .6-.7". Temp and track issues are apparent.

The higher heights in the north atl off of NF imply that temps and track may favor warm and wet during precip. MSLP panels don't show cold hp getting locked where we need it. We could easily end up BN temps/AN precip/no snow during the period.

If mean h5 starts showing lower heights pressing down into eastern Canada and N atl with an elongated trough then our chances go way up. Plenty of time. We're a long ways away from a clear picture.

maybe wrong here but extended shows exactly that low pressure over east

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maybe wrong here but extended shows exactly that low pressure over east

Hard to say for sure but towards the very end of the run on the EPS, it looks like the area of higher heights east of the maritimes may be shifting/weakening, and lower heights are starting to build in that general area. Plus there is a nice block over Greenland at that time.

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Here is what I'm seeing on the 00z EPS @ 240 hrs.

 

I don't have access to the individuals, but I imagine there are some storms that give snow for 40N based on the snowfall mean.....My guess on why they don't show that much snow south of there is because right now @ Day 10 the mean HP is farther SE than we'd like it. 

 

Like others mentioned, it seems like we do better once a pattern collapses rather than during a decent pattern. 

 

post-8091-0-20431400-1453994858_thumb.pn

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There are reasons to have some pause. It's not a dry period d10 - 15 on the means. Mean precip through the area is .6-.7". Temp and track issues are apparent.

The higher heights in the north atl off of NF imply that temps and track may favor warm and wet during precip. MSLP panels don't show cold hp getting locked where we need it. We could easily end up BN temps/AN precip/no snow during the period.

If mean h5 starts showing lower heights pressing down into eastern Canada and N atl with an elongated trough then our chances go way up. Plenty of time. We're a long ways away from a clear picture.

We were lacking that early in the pattern progression this month and models were throwing some red herrings at us but ultimately we cashed in later. Had to endure some misses first when the pattern was still "getting there". Caveats being same results are never a guaruntee but this is how that started. Each day the high latitudes are looking better. The strat warming looks real and that also lends confidence to getting ao help. Feb is prime time as well so we can do well without a perfect setup. I'm optimistic we will have chances but if I had to bet I would say more likely in the post feb 15 period. Might need to let things marinate a bit and were rushing things as usual. Doesn't mean we can't get lucky before then but my gut says were entering another prolonged blocking period and things probably get more conducive to snow later in the period. I'm fairly bullish we see another snowfall event of some significance. Only thing giving me pause is I would love another soi pulse to help offset the mjo heading for some unfavorable phases. Mjo is showing some pretty weak sauce signals though so perhaps it won't have much impact. I agree we are still several days if not a week from getting close to a clear picture on how things evolve but there are more good then bad signs right now. I'll take it.
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Here is what I'm seeing on the 00z EPS @ 240 hrs.

I don't have access to the individuals, but I imagine there are some storms that give snow for 40N based on the snowfall mean.....My guess on why they don't show that much snow south of there is because right now @ Day 10 the mean HP is farther SE than we'd like it.

Like others mentioned, it seems like we do better once a pattern collapses rather than during a decent pattern.

eps10.png

I wouldn't worry that much about storm tracks or temp profiles post day 10. There was a day or two at that range where the euro had a warm cut off rain storm and the gfs had a cutter for our blizzard. I remember the all is lost mood when it looked like we might escape the blocking pattern without any snow. Then around day 10 the gfs had that one run lost it for a day then around day 8 locked in. Euro came around shortly after and the rest is history. So that really showed itself inside day 10 and it was considered amazing from range. We also had to endure about 4 "threats" that fell apart first. I want to see the signal for favorable blocking continue to improve and the Pna to stay strong. Give me a favorable Pna AO combo and I'll let the chips fall where they may.
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MJO is hinting of a phase 3, *maybe* 4, as we venture out towards Feb 11. This is not a bad phase at all during a strong Nino episode.

So I have heard that stronger ninos change the mjo outcomes but I will admit to some ignorance in this area. Does anyone have the mjo phase teleconnections for ninos? Furthermore I don't have enough experience to know how to factor in the soi here. For instance a string nino might change mjo impacts but if we are in a period where the soi is acting less ninoish does that revert the mjo to normal impacts? I need to learn more in this area before I feel comfortable using it. Someone like hm or Wes might be able to give better insight.

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So I have heard that stronger ninos change the mjo outcomes but I will admit to some ignorance in this area. Does anyone have the mjo phase teleconnections for ninos? Furthermore I don't have enough experience to know how to factor in the soi here. For instance a string nino might change mjo impacts but if we are in a period where the soi is acting less ninoish does that revert the mjo to normal impacts? I need to learn more in this area before I feel comfortable using it. Someone like hm or Wes might be able to give better insight.

Im not very skilled in the ENSO/MJO relation either. Just going off what I read from some red-taggers here at americanwx.
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