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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Guys, enough of this sh*t.

Don't you know it's 10 days out?

10 days out and not too hard to screw up compared to the blizzard. But it's early. I don't think we've seen the final pattern config yet and it's also probably closer to the start than the end. Do think we have legit displaced PV stuff ahead etc, so colder source seems likely for a while--only 45 days late, close enough. ;) Keep those waves running and something will get it done.  Plus I still feel like we should see more legit blocking than we're seeing but perhaps I'm wrong, and I don't know if we totally need it in this case either. Except strong Ninos are a b*tch. Definitely some increased 0z Euro watching ahead.

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10 days out and not too hard to screw up compared to the blizzard. But it's early. I don't think we've seen the final pattern config yet and it's also probably closer to the start than the end. Do think we have legit displaced PV stuff ahead etc, so colder source seems likely for a while--only 45 days late, close enough. ;) Keep those waves running and something will get it done.  Plus I still feel like we should see more legit blocking than we're seeing but perhaps I'm wrong, and I don't know if we totally need it in this case either. Except strong Ninos are a b*tch. Definitely some increased 0z Euro watching ahead.

What about the sun angle tho?

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Interstingly, the discussion in the link I posted from 1/13 talked about the flawed setup of the blizzard modeled at that time. The models today are showing this setup as near textbook for a major storm, with no suggestion of taint on the operationals. Maybe someone who's on Twitter should tweet about the next blizzard and its likely 2-4' before someone else does it first.

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Not to sound like a total newb, but what is it with that goofy sh*t that the wxbell maps always do around the bay? Is it just the algorithm's way of saying "snow doesn't accumulate on water"?

Snow won't accumulate in a grid space that is mostly or all water. The fast cutoff is partly just an interpolation of going to 0 quick.
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It always mixes here.. except all the times it didn't.

 

It didn't mix in Dec 09, Feb '10 Part one and two, Jan 2016, PDI, probably some more. I guess it kinda mixed in 96 but I don't think that cut down on totals much... we were already on the edge of the dryslot then. 

 

Somebody said it always mixes in our big ones. I don't think thats true.

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