Amped Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 48hr Storm best part BOS goes to rain and we don't even come close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Eh, we've already had a historic blizzard. A second one might be boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 GFS/EURO combo ftw Only 9/10 more days to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 PD 3....we've been chasing that Unicorn since 2004....lets do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 GFS/EURO combo ftw Only 9/10 more days to go... Our last storm was modeled from 7, I think we can do 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Eh, we've already had a historic blizzard. A second one might be boring. The set up on both the GFS and Euro is a blizzard type set up. The GFS reminds me a little of 1979 though the 500h is stronger which places a stronger low over KY than that storm. Still 10 days is an eternity in model land. The most important feature on the GFS and Euro is the big block to our northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 PD 3....we've been chasing that Unicorn since 2004....lets do it! 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 2003Think a little harder pal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 2003 We had it in 2003, so our next opportunity would have been 2004....Semantics, I want to get that monkey off our backs so we can chase PD4, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The set up on both the GFS and Euro is a blizzard type set up. The GFS reminds me a little of 1979 though the 500h is stronger which places a stronger low over KY than that storm. Still 10 days is an eternity in model land. The most important feature on the GFS and Euro is the big block to our northeast.Verbatim, the Euro and GFS are both showing probably a once in 20 or 30 year setup for an monster blizzard starting next weekend (2/13) on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The set up on both the GFS and Euro is a blizzard type set up. The GFS reminds me a little of 1979 though the 500h is stronger which places a stronger low over KY than that storm. Still 10 days is an eternity in model land. The most important feature on the GFS and Euro is the big block to our northeast. I thought PD3 got banned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 The set up on both the GFS and Euro is a blizzard type set up. The GFS reminds me a little of 1979 though the 500h is stronger which places a stronger low over KY than that storm. Still 10 days is an eternity in model land. The most important feature on the GFS and Euro is the big block to our northeast. I got pretty excited when I saw the h5 mean on the euro ens. The 50/50 has been stuck in time for 4 euro ens runs in a row but the height patterns here didn't look so hot until today. What's not to like about this plot? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 We had it in 2003, so our next opportunity would have been 2004....Semantics, I want to get that monkey off our backs so we can chase PD4, lol. Ok, gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 What an epic HP in the perfect spot man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Sure, let's all jump on a +10 day unicorn threat. I mean, c'mon, a huge blizzard happening a few weeks before obviously increases the chances of another one happening, the same way an EF5 tornado means more EF5s, right? Just because the LR models got right on one storm, doesn't mean they'll be correct again. A broken clock is right twice a day. A +10 day threat hardly has much veracity, especially when we're talking about the 18z GFS, which so many of you knock when it dares show a rainstorm or warm pattern. This threat should be approached with more caution, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Verbatim, the Euro and GFS are both showing probably a once in 20 or 30 year setup for an monster blizzard starting next weekend (2/13) on.... Is it a better setup than the one we just had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Thanks Bill. Looks like it will occlude and rain in NYC. Sorry man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like temps are <32 rest of that week on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Is it a better setup than the one we just had?It looks better yes. Obviously have to be real cautious because it's so far out. We are talking 10 days away basically but if that setup really does verify, just wow. The chances of getting out of that without a really huge storm are pretty slim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The set up on both the GFS and Euro is a blizzard type set up. The GFS reminds me a little of 1979 though the 500h is stronger which places a stronger low over KY than that storm. Still 10 days is an eternity in model land. The most important feature on the GFS and Euro is the big block to our northeast. I need to change my pants. It is pretty awesome to see the GFS & EURO show agreement with the HP placement along with the 50/50 block.,,,,Long way to go, but easier to swallow Tuesday's near miss if we can start tracking PDIII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I would never worry about a modeled high 10 days away being too strong. That happens like never. GFS is a crushing so we're good for now. haha Thanks, Bob. Hopefully it melts in time for our spring crabbing trip lol. I'm in.. let's do it this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Sure, let's all jump on a +10 day unicorn threat. I mean, c'mon, a huge blizzard happening a few weeks before obviously increases the chances of another one happening, the same way an EF5 tornado means more EF5s, right? Just because the LR models got right on one storm, doesn't mean they'll be correct again. A broken clock is right twice a day. A +10 day threat hardly has much veracity, especially when we're talking about the 18z GFS, which so many of you knock when it dares show a rainstorm or warm pattern. This threat should be approached with more caution, IMO. lol. this guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I don't love the kicker on its heels, but need to ignore the little things at this stage.... Bottom line to take from today's 12z suite is that we have a potentially really good setup for the Feb 14-16th time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 itshappening.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Ens support continues...I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 lol. this guy definition of a wet blanket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 GEFS mean is basically TN valley then jump to the NC coast and to the benchmark. Pretty classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I need to change my pants. It is pretty awesome to see the GFS & EURO show agreement with the HP placement along with the 50/50 block.,,,,Long way to go, but easier to swallow Tuesday's near miss if we can start tracking PDIII Needing to change your pants....easier to swallow. C'mon Highzenberg. You can't put that stuff in the same post even if you are talking wx. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 GEFS mean is basically TN valley then jump to the NC coast and to the benchmark. Pretty classic. Perfect timing. Sunday night into Monday with the blizzard really raging all day Monday. Temps go into the 40s but then never get above freezing. Everything closed the whole entire week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Mean precip looks to be around 1" for DC for that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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