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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Eh, we've already had a historic blizzard. A second one might be boring. 

The set up on both the GFS and Euro is a blizzard type set up.  The GFS reminds me a little of 1979 though the 500h is stronger which places a stronger low over KY than that storm.  Still 10 days is an eternity in model land.   The most important feature on the GFS and Euro is the big block to our northeast. 

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The set up on both the GFS and Euro is a blizzard type set up. The GFS reminds me a little of 1979 though the 500h is stronger which places a stronger low over KY than that storm. Still 10 days is an eternity in model land. The most important feature on the GFS and Euro is the big block to our northeast.

Verbatim, the Euro and GFS are both showing probably a once in 20 or 30 year setup for an monster blizzard starting next weekend (2/13) on....
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The set up on both the GFS and Euro is a blizzard type set up. The GFS reminds me a little of 1979 though the 500h is stronger which places a stronger low over KY than that storm. Still 10 days is an eternity in model land. The most important feature on the GFS and Euro is the big block to our northeast.

I thought PD3 got banned ;)

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The set up on both the GFS and Euro is a blizzard type set up.  The GFS reminds me a little of 1979 though the 500h is stronger which places a stronger low over KY than that storm.  Still 10 days is an eternity in model land.   The most important feature on the GFS and Euro is the big block to our northeast. 

 

I got pretty excited when I saw the h5 mean on the euro ens. The 50/50 has been stuck in time for 4 euro ens runs in a row but the height patterns here didn't look so hot until today. What's not to like about this plot? lol

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

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Sure, let's all jump on a +10 day unicorn threat. I mean, c'mon, a huge blizzard happening a few weeks before obviously increases the chances of another one happening, the same way an EF5 tornado means more EF5s, right?

 

Just because the LR models got right on one storm, doesn't mean they'll be correct again. A broken clock is right twice a day. 

 

A +10 day threat hardly has much veracity, especially when we're talking about the 18z GFS, which so many of you knock when it dares show a rainstorm or warm pattern.

 

This threat should be approached with more caution, IMO.

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Is it a better setup than the one we just had?

It looks better yes. Obviously have to be real cautious because it's so far out. We are talking 10 days away basically but if that setup really does verify, just wow. The chances of getting out of that without a really huge storm are pretty slim
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The set up on both the GFS and Euro is a blizzard type set up.  The GFS reminds me a little of 1979 though the 500h is stronger which places a stronger low over KY than that storm.  Still 10 days is an eternity in model land.   The most important feature on the GFS and Euro is the big block to our northeast. 

 

I need to change my pants.

 

It is pretty awesome to see the GFS & EURO show agreement with the HP placement along with the  50/50 block.,,,,Long way to go, but easier to swallow Tuesday's near miss if we can start tracking PDIII

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Sure, let's all jump on a +10 day unicorn threat. I mean, c'mon, a huge blizzard happening a few weeks before obviously increases the chances of another one happening, the same way an EF5 tornado means more EF5s, right?

 

Just because the LR models got right on one storm, doesn't mean they'll be correct again. A broken clock is right twice a day. 

 

A +10 day threat hardly has much veracity, especially when we're talking about the 18z GFS, which so many of you knock when it dares show a rainstorm or warm pattern.

 

This threat should be approached with more caution, IMO.

lol.  this guy

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I need to change my pants.

It is pretty awesome to see the GFS & EURO show agreement with the HP placement along with the 50/50 block.,,,,Long way to go, but easier to swallow Tuesday's near miss if we can start tracking PDIII

Needing to change your pants....easier to swallow. C'mon Highzenberg. You can't put that stuff in the same post even if you are talking wx. Lol
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