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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Wish they had day 11 and 12. That would be  the biggest snowstorm ever from OKC to BOS. Unless of course the northern stream digs 100 miles  west, then it would be  rain.

its not too far from last nights control run that dumped on us.  If anything it might be an even better setup at that point.  Either way its 10 days away but this run was drool worthy at day 10.  Better then seeing some monster ridge over our area like it said we would have by that point a few days ago. 

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its not too far from last nights control run that dumped on us.  If anything it might be an even better setup at that point.  Either way its 10 days away but this run was drool worthy at day 10.  Better then seeing some monster ridge over our area like it said we would have by that point a few days ago. 

a strong southern stream attacking what looks like severe cold air for us...haha

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Upper single digits around the area the morning of  2/15.....as the cloud deck thickens and lowers.  I may have to get up from the craps table (2/8-9) and move over to the poker table (2/15).  10-12 days away but I like the odds a little better.  Models are pretty united with the idea of a monster arctic high hovering around the can border and not driving down to tenn valley or scooting to the east.  

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Euro ens are about as bullish as you can get at 10 day leads for a big storm. This long lead signal might be the real deal. D11-12 look even better. Quite a few big hits on the ind members. 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png

 

Control run is a thing of beauty...which I am sure you saw.  It's in the fun to look at range but it sure gets the juices flowing.  Could we have two long lead storms this year that the models lock down early?

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Euro ens are about as bullish as you can get at 10 day leads for a big storm. This long lead signal might be the real deal. D11-12 look even better. Quite a few big hits on the ind members.

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png

Bob, the mean snowfall on the ensembles really didn't budge after day 10. If there is such a strong signal, why wouldn't it be reflected on the mean in your opinion?
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Bob, the mean snowfall on the ensembles really didn't budge after day 10. If there is such a strong signal, why wouldn't it be reflected on the mean in your opinion?

 

Are we looking at the same mean? It's like almost 3" from d9-14. That's pretty huge for 9-14 days out. Take a look at the member panels. You almost never see so many big hits this far out in time. 

 

I'm not saying anything is a lock because that's crazy talk but that's a bullish eps run for sure. 

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Are we looking at the same mean? It's like almost 3" from d9-14. That's pretty huge for 9-14 days out. Take a look at the member panels. You almost never see so many big hits this far out in time.

I'm not saying anything is a lock because that's crazy talk but that's a bullish eps run for sure.

Well I thought I counted 2.5" at bwi, but it could have been 3. It just didn't seem like much at all compared to areas to our north and northeast. I haven't been looking at them but for a couple weeks as you know so I'll defer to your experience with them as to whether that's meaningful at that distance.
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Are we looking at the same mean? It's like almost 3" from d9-14. That's pretty huge for 9-14 days out. Take a look at the member panels. You almost never see so many big hits this far out in time. 

 

I'm not saying anything is a lock because that's crazy talk but that's a bullish eps run for sure. 

That is a great look @ d10. Strong surface High over SE Canada, a nice block over N Canada/ Greenland, a vortex tucked underneath near NF. Oh and the Pacific looks pretty dang good. I am already looking past next week's convoluted mess lol.

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18z GFS @ 210 hrs is barking...looks similar to EURO....Sweet HP in great spot.

 

When it came to our Blizzard in January the one thing that stood out in the LR was that the models were showing a strong HP in the right spot. Right now the models are showing an even stronger one....

There is some serious cold on the table for next weekend. The high is for real. Good to see that kind of high in mid February. This is time of year that is in our wheelhouse. 

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18z GFS @ 210 hrs is barking...looks similar to EURO....Sweet HP in great spot.

 

When it came to our Blizzard in January the one thing that stood out in the LR was that the models were showing a strong HP in the right spot. Right now the models are showing an even stronger one....

234 looks classic except for the ridge in the gulf, It's snowing anyway with a 1042 over Quebec and a 1006 in western KY

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18z GFS @ 210 hrs is barking...looks similar to EURO....Sweet HP in great spot.

When it came to our Blizzard in January the one thing that stood out in the LR was that the models were showing a strong HP in the right spot. Right now the models are showing an even stronger one....

Could to strong be a problem? I'd be afraid it would get surpressed.
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