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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Para euro is nice. Very similar to the euro op at the surface but not as prolific with precip.

Solid 4-8" for the vast majority. 6z-12z tues isn't as hot and heavy as the op but still 2-4" and sub freezing surface. Another 2-4" from 12-18z. It's a 24 hour event with light stuff before and after the end periods I outlined.

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It'd be easier if we created a thread for Tuesday so we could differentiate the discussion.

(ducks)

Tomorrow if tonight looks good? I think it'll snow at least a little so a thread now wouldn't hurt I guess.
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Ensembles are really starting to like the entire d9-15 period. Blocking asserting itself starting to show up nicely. We'll see how it shakes out but looking pretty good for now.

Interestingly, the euro op and Para are as different d10 as I've seen them. Para has a massive cold hp while the regular up is cutting a storm leaving us in the warm sector. Ensembles in general favor a snow storm d9-11. Going to be a fun period.

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Ensembles are really starting to like the entire d9-15 period. Blocking asserting itself starting to show up nicely. We'll see how it shakes out but looking pretty good for now.

Interestingly, the euro op and Para are as different d10 as I've seen them. Para has a massive cold hp while the regular up is cutting a storm leaving us in the warm sector. Ensembles in general favor a snow storm d9-11. Going to be a fun period.

Ensembles don't seem to like the 2/9-2/10 event that much. Bwi mean is only 3.5" with less for dca.
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Speaking in more general terms....LR ens slowly starting to look much better.  The idea of a 5-10 day pattern relaxation/reload looks to be fading.  The possibility that we just roll thru feb and into march with a  -EPO +PNA  -AO and a fluctuating NAO would be fantastic.  06z gefs really made a move toward this idea.  

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the uber LR GFS keeps the idea of cold ns dominated scenario...really cold....but this type pattern could also leave us with repetitive northern redeveloping lows which obviously would waste some serious cold...the inverted V seems to show up in some frames 

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I could definitely see a portion of this subforum getting a 1-2 punch next week. Not talking back-to-back HECS obviously but I can see storm 1 off the SE Coast drifting far enough N and W to provide accumulating snow and the 2nd system (Miller B) providing another round of accumulating snow for some. I'm a believer in taking whatever we/you can get.

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yes I can see that but I would say it favors northern areas more.  it is nice to see the cold regardless so at least we are all in the game to some extent.  but a juicy Miller A like couple weeks ago seems less likely which means more transfer type events...and we know how that can bring pleasure and pain all within a few miles

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