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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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My gut feeling is that the Euro and company low evolution is more likely than the GFS partly because a lot of its ensemble members have a similar evolution but also because the jet is located so far south.  That doesn't mean that teh Euro QPF will be right but that its max is more likely than that of tthe last two GFS runs.  RIght now I'd put the odds of the south of us traack at 60% versus the over us or north track.  Cowardly I know but this far out the models still could have problems with handling the digging trough..

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My gut feeling is that the Euro and company low evolution is more likely than the GFS partly because a lot of its ensemble members have a similar evolution but also because the jet is located so far south. That doesn't mean that teh Euro QPF will be right but that its max is more likely than that of tthe last two GFS runs. RIght now I'd put the odds of the south of us traack at 60% versus the over us or north track. Cowardly I know but this far out the models still could have problems with handling the digging trough..

From you, that's hardly cowardly. That's rather bullish. I like it

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I've been testing out some pattern techniques and most have suggested we are more or less in it through mar 10-15 or so. Some looks actually peak the potential in early March. We'll swing a bit but think we have at least 4 more weeks of decent potential potential. Getting some bonus snow first it seems.

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I've been testing out some pattern techniques and most have suggested we are more or less in it through mar 10-15 or so. Some looks actually peak the potential in early March. We'll swing a bit but think we have at least 4 more weeks of decent potential potential. Getting some bonus snow first it seems.

If you're not poo-pooing, then that says quite a bit. And I mean that in all seriousness.

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If you're not poo-pooing, then that says quite a bit. And I mean that in all seriousness.

Well I think the general LR look has been pretty active for Feb-Mar, of course partly expected in a strong Nino. There are some oddities like the fact that CA is starting to run into trouble especially south of SFO. Actually for a while March has looked more classic Nino than Feb at least across the CONUS. Still not quite seeing the return of solid blocking that I am expecting.. and a lot of my bullishness is related to that.

 

Then again, we might get some snow without it.. of course prime climo. I was never too hot on this period so I'll be a little interested to see how it ends up doing. 

 

Our main battle will probably become climo as it should stay stormy through March. I certainly wouldn't bank on anything past Mar 7-10 or so IMBY just given it's March. I don't think the cold has performed nearly as well as it's looked at range this season even if we had a few decently cold days. No real reason to expect that to change though strong Nino climo does favor somewhat BN here thru Mar overall.

 

But I have been playing with a handful of rollover techniques. I don't know if there's really anything to it but it seemed to generally work in the month prior to the blizzard so I'll keep at it to see. The 500mb map I linked a few days ago for Feb 20 was one of those methods: https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/693297060053909504 In general they've tended to show blocking in that range into early March to some degree, with perhaps the best looks sorta Feb 15-25 and Mar 5-15 (would not I haven't run these in 2 days now so who knows). Can't take any of that to mean too much on its own, but perhaps worth blending into the brain superensemble.

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Great post, Ian. I'm really interested to see how your rollover techniques pan out.

I've gone on record that I think we get 2-3 (likely 3) good looks before the end of the season, one of which would come in March, and that anything we got prior to the second-third week of January would have been bonus. That's pretty much based on my own recollection of how certain winters have progressed in the past (checking that against some other forecasts) and the fact that we're Snowtown now. Not particularly scientific, but I feel quite strongly about it.

I will admit that in shocked that we haven't had more interior/elevation events. And the fact that New England in general (and especially NNE) has gotten squat is mind-blowing.

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Oooh, weeklies look good. Brief warmup during week 3 then back to -epo, maybe a side order of blocking, and an active Pac. Coldest 850 anoms during the 1st week or March. PSU style. Boom. 

wow...the same weeklies that looked like crap 3 days ago haha?

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Oooh, weeklies look good. Brief warmup during week 3 then back to -epo, maybe a side order of blocking, and an active Pac. Coldest 850 anoms during the 1st week or March. PSU style. Boom.

I have no idea how the early next week mess will play out but I feel pretty confident in the general pattern and how the winter plays out. After the day 4-5 mess we have a shot at something day 10-13 as the nao drops then relaxes. Perhaps a west to east type thing running into the cold. Then we probably warm for a week as things reload for a final run with an active stj and southeast trough and blocking. I'm basing this on the timing of the pulses in both the high latitudes and tropics this winter since the dec torch breakdown. The models are just lending more confidence by supporting that idea.
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WTF? I have a busy day at work and miss the 12z suite. And it trends in our favor. I am still always worried about a jumper. The earlier runs had it jumping off of OC or a little north of there. And that is a screw job waiting to happen. The 12Z is jumping off of OBX or a little south of there. A much better solution for us. I still think the real shot is mid month. Having that strong HP in the right spot makes me salivate a little bit.

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3 of them have an all out KU storm, not that I favor that Idea

 

Well, I'd most definitely "favor" that idea of course, as in I'd take it! :D   But I know what you mean, it's not exactly a high probability outcome and would be on the extreme end.  Just glad to see a majority of GEFS/EPS members favoring something decent at least.

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Great post, Ian. I'm really interested to see how your rollover techniques pan out.

I've gone on record that I think we get 2-3 (likely 3) good looks before the end of the season, one of which would come in March, and that anything we got prior to the second-third week of January would have been bonus. That's pretty much based on my own recollection of how certain winters have progressed in the past (checking that against some other forecasts) and the fact that we're Snowtown now. Not particularly scientific, but I feel quite strongly about it.

I will admit that in shocked that we haven't had more interior/elevation events. And the fact that New England in general (and especially NNE) has gotten squat is mind-blowing.

I think I'm better at pattern forecasting than snowstorm forecasting in general. If stuff happens tonight thru Tue I'll have generally been wrong on the period. Though the Tue event has at least a thing or two going for it and it's the one I've been most interested in since it 'stablized' a bit lately. That said, I probably still lean toward it being less than advertised.. some snow seems a good bet but I don't know if I'd bite on 4-8" etc.

 

Part of the success last go was the pattern was beast mode for a while. But it also evolved in the run up.. Jan looked like it had snow potential right off the bat though the blocking run was not seen very well. After maybe a week of waffling it locked in and of course the rest is history. The Euro having a steep AO dive that lingers and now showing more signs of -NAO is good news, but it's still out there so who knows.

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