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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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With the way people were going crazy, I thought we were talking about a foot or more. Sounds more like a 4-8 inch storm. Not sure that counts as crazy abundance of precip, but I guess it's a big step in the right direction.

 

??? Huh?  Nobody was looking at this as being a HECS or really major event in this area, and if anyone is, they most likely will be disappointed in the end.  Most everyone else was hoping to see trends toward a moderate at best type of snow (yes, on the order of 4-8" if we're lucky).  Given that we had just about nothing not too long ago, the trends toward something potentially quite good are definitely a huge step...and it sure would warrant going a bit "crazy" at what we've seen in the 12Z suite.

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??? Huh?  Nobody was looking at this as being a HECS or really major event in this area, and if anyone is, they most likely will be disappointed in the end.  Most everyone else was hoping to see trends toward a moderate at best type of snow (yes, on the order of 4-8" if we're lucky).  Given that we had just about nothing not too long ago, the trends toward something potentially quite good are definitely a huge step...and it sure would warrant going a bit "crazy" at what we've seen in the 12Z suite.

 

Blizzards skew reality.

 

The euro skewed miller b reality. We just saw a pretty sick 12z suite overall. And we all know how perilous this can be. If a shot at 8"+ doesn't excite somebody then I don't know what to say. 

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Blizzards skew reality.

 

The euro skewed miller b reality. We just saw a pretty sick 12z suite overall. And we all know how perilous this can be. If a shot at 8"+ doesn't excite somebody then I don't know what to say. 

we got 8 inches of snow in 3 hours from the blizzard...we will have to learn how to be normal again. 

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Blizzards skew reality.

 

The euro skewed miller b reality. We just saw a pretty sick 12z suite overall. And we all know how perilous this can be. If a shot at 8"+ doesn't excite somebody then I don't know what to say. 

 

Amen, and seconded!!

 

The 12Z suite today is nothing short of remarkable given what we were looking at previously.  Hopefully it's not just a tease and we go back to nada again.  It's always a gamble hoping for a NS shortwave to dig like that, but as of now, the models are somehow on board with just that occurring.

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Lol, its like people hear 6-8" and get sad......We live in crazy times. Years ago 4-8" would have shut down the city

 

Yep, indeed.  Actually, just last March things got shut down for a solid ~6" event...which occurred during the middle of the day no less.  That was a fun storm.

 

(ETA:  And, on top of that, the March storm last year began as rain during the pre-dawn hours, we had to wait for the colder air to rush in and the wave on the front to move up this way.  Yet we still scored big.)

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Mitch has a conflict of interest.

Nice run. Not sure it works out like that, but the overall trend has been very nice. I still lean toward a further south trend with a better coastal. Shame we're so far out. Like stormtracker, I'm wary of Miller Bs no matter how good they look on paper.

lol the only conflict I have is driving the streets of Annapolis at lunch time, pulling up weather maps, then trying to post while I'm driving. I couldn't look at everything except those Plymouth maps or people would die!

As far as my bet with Bob, that is one bet I hope to lose.

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While people are looking @ next week's storm, the LR EURO is actually pretty sick looking -NAO, and a huge SE ULL 50/50 feature @ 240 hours

 

 

Good setup day 10 on the euro for that Feb 15-16 thing.  Low organizing in Kansas moving east with a lot of cold and high pressure in the way. 

There is a lot to like about this run. Also nice and cold through the entire period. Also brings down powerful cold front on the 13th with squalls almost exactly one year after last year's super front.

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Blizzards skew reality.

 

The euro skewed miller b reality. We just saw a pretty sick 12z suite overall. And we all know how perilous this can be. If a shot at 8"+ doesn't excite somebody then I don't know what to say. 

 

8+" from a Miller B at our latitudes is noteworthy, especially as depicted on the Euro with those totals extending SW all the way to the Shenandoah Valley.

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8+" from a Miller B at our latitudes is noteworthy, especially as depicted on the Euro with those totals extending SW all the way to the Shenandoah Valley.

 

It's not really a classic Miller B which is why it works so well.  There isn't a huge NW to SE coastal jump that threatens to dryslot us.  It's pretty much just a weak surface low taking a good track.

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It's not really a classic Miller B which is why it works so well.  There isn't a huge NW to SE coastal jump that threatens to dryslot us.  It's pretty much just a weak surface low taking a good track.

 

It really isn't a typical h5 screw job progression. It's not like there's a progressive vort or closed/closing upper level low moving through embedded in the flow. The trough itself is crawling in the big picture. The low is away out in front of it and is not much more than a piece of energy being spit out.

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yes to d10. it's coming.

 

The shortwave was showing up pretty clear on the 0z euro ens but heights were a bit high to our NE on the means to mention much. We'll see how it looks today. The op's idea won't draw many complaints. Even if the hypothetical 50/50 lifted in front of the hypothetical vort we would probably do ok on the hypothetical front side. 

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