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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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With this much time left, there's no telling what this might end up as.

 

No doubt. I'm not used to things like this trending better inside of 5 days. This is when we usually see the miller b screw job starting to take shape. Of course we still have plenty of time for that too. I'll just enjoy the 12z runs for now and move on. 

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Comparatively smoked compared to the rest is what I meant. I'm starting to think organized coastal low pressure is a more likely outcome than a strung out mess that the ops are showing right now. GFS was pretty close as it is and we have 4 days to go. 

I agree its likely the surface reflection trends better once we are closer and models can get a better picture of what to key on, and I am not yet convinced that any transfer would be to a location 100 miles inland like that when the better baroclinic zone is probably along the coast.  Furthermore I am almost sure the models have not yet accurately nailed the details of the trough orientation and vort track and so all the rest is subject to change.  These changes could be better or worse. 

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Anyone have an idea of how often better trends for us are first seen on the GGEM and UKIE? This is a serious question.

with so many opportunities over the years every model has its moment to pick up on something first, the real question is how likely is it.  The GGEM is pretty low in verification scores overall.  Its Ensembles I believe, do a little better, and the RGEM is a quality short range tool, but the GGEM is pretty bad.  The UKMET is actually a very good model with solid verification scores, but its less utilized because of its poor availability and crappy graphics.  It does sometimes over amplify things, or at least that was a known bias a few years ago, not sure now. 

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