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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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GFS is trying to look good. Better spacing and ns low is a good bit SW compared to 6z. This is a good run even if it doesn't do anything

agree... last night I commented that the ggem and euro both had a really good H5 pass for us to get something. The GFS not so much. So far the GFS is trending towards the better look at H5. Nothing looks great yet at the surface but this is the type of thing where give me that trough with a nice digging northern stream vort that gets under us and lets see what happens once we get inside 48 hours. At the very least you get the weird inverted trough type scenario and possible convective snows with the H5 pass, and its also possible best case that models are missing a better organized surface low and more organized qpf response by not identifying properly which vort to key on. Good H5 keeps us in the game at least.

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It's actually further east than 6z which is good. Pac wave is more amplified and digging deeper than 6z as well. Good trends but still a messed up setup big things to happen. I just want something to happen...lol

Can't believe we are even having this discussion about hoping the first low gets out of the way. Two days ago with the amount of separation I would have laughed if someone would have even mentioned that it could be a concern.

 

Definitely a much better look with the dig.

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again, I think we're going to be too far south, but it is a better run thru 111 hrs

Its definitely a marked improvement, but like you said earlier..low levels are torching.  We could use a 75-100 miles shift south...not unfathomable at this range.   I was gonna give up, but I'll hang in there for a bit.

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ehh its tempting to get sucked into that first low thing, I was for a minute yesterday, but looking at how much spacing there is between that and the northern branch, I just can't see how it can possibly phase enough to come up and really affect our area.  The only thing that wave can do is run interference with a low being able to organize with the trough behind it. 

Browsing thru the Euro ensemble members this morning I actually came across one member that hit us pretty good with both lows. I would say that is probably a low percentage outcome. :) 

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The good thing is the pac shortwave came in a little slower with more dig into the west coast. Small changes there over the next day and easily bring things further south and put us on the favorable side of slp redeveloping. Still going to be really hard and/or impossible for a big event but it's a bit of a powderkeg setup @ h5 so who knows. SNE in the end will probably get smoked no matter what. This is a good setup for them for sure. 

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doesn't look like the SNE gets smoked really.  NNE maybe but odd track.  My definition of smoked is what's in my signature.  Plenty of time and maybe whatever falls will stay on the ground longer this time

 

Comparatively smoked compared to the rest is what I meant. I'm starting to think organized coastal low pressure is a more likely outcome than a strung out mess that the ops are showing right now. GFS was pretty close as it is and we have 4 days to go. 

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The good thing is the pac shortwave came in a little slower with more dig into the west coast. Small changes there over the next day and easily bring things further south and put us on the favorable side of slp redeveloping. Still going to be really hard and/or impossible for a big event but it's a bit of a powderkeg setup @ h5 so who knows. SNE in the end will probably get smoked no matter what. This is a good setup for them for sure. 

 

Yeah, not really looking for a big event out of this around here.  Those who are, are probably setting themselves up to be disappointed.  Of course, barring something really wacky happening like Feb. 9-10, 2010.  That all said, I don't think a halfway decent to moderate event is out of the question given how things have trended recently (at least more than just a car-topper).  Still would be some work to accomplish even that.  SNE would get pounded out of a setup like this, and personally I don't much care or mind if they get a ton (they probably will anyhow).  I'm more concerned if we can score something good (i.e., not rain followed by a couple of flakes, or a Boxing Day result, or whatever other screw job that could happen!).

 

(ETA:  I know Bob is looking to stamp his $10-K Mitch lotto ticket with this one, hahaha!)

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doesn't look like the SNE gets smoked really.  NNE maybe but odd track.  My definition of smoked is what's in my signature.  Plenty of time and maybe whatever falls will stay on the ground longer this time

Which is exactly why I'm excited about the prospect of a couple of inches.  This time it looks cold afterward.  That's winter weather IMO.

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Bob, GFS was a great trend @ H5, more spacing & more organized. The H5 look reminds me of February 2-4 2009. A deep trough formed over EC....There was never a really defined SLP, but S Philly got had precip from a norlun sit over them. Parts of S Philly and S NJ got like 8-12" while NE Philly got like 4 it was sweet. I just looked at the 500mb for that storm, wow the similarities are pretty good,

 

Look how similar these look:

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2009/03-Feb-09-500MillibarMaps.html

 

 

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Bob, GFS was a great trend @ H5, more spacing & more organized. The H5 look reminds me of February 2-4 2009. A deep trough formed over EC....There was never a really defined SLP, but S Philly got had precip from a norlun sit over them. Parts of S Philly and S NJ got like 8-12" while NE Philly got like 4 it was sweet. I just looked at the 500mb for that storm, wow the similarities are pretty good,

 

Look how similar these look:

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2009/03-Feb-09-500MillibarMaps.html

 

Jan and Feb 2009 were awful here.  I just as soon not see anything that compares to them.

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