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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Para euro is similar to the op with snow during the transfer and has the same mini jack just south of DC. Looks like a 10" bullseye with dc getting 5-6. Baltimore 2". Ji berg around 6-7.

Euro ops really like the mini bullseye to the west of the low.

Euro ens means pop a low south of DC and off the coast. It's a messy situation that is trending away from any a big storm but right now we aren't in a terrible spot to pick up something.

Post some of those random nameless maps that nobody knows where they came from.  I can't decipher all that stuff you wrote.

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NAM at 84 hours shows a nice vortex over Maine which is forcing the next vortex heading south from Canada to dig more SSE instead of SE as many models yesterday were showing

this is a good thing if correct

also, it shows the vortex off the SE coast getting out of the way

here's the 84 hr. panel, but if you run the loop, you can see what I'm talking about

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160204+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

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Para euro is similar to the op with snow during the transfer and has the same mini jack just south of DC. Looks like a 10" bullseye with dc getting 5-6. Baltimore 2". Ji berg around 6-7.

Euro ops really like the mini bullseye to the west of the low.

Euro ens means pop a low south of DC and off the coast. It's a messy situation that is trending away from any a big storm but right now we aren't in a terrible spot to pick up something.

What day are you talking about?

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QPF totals on para euro:

 

DCA: .7

BWI: .3

Winchester: .6

Fredericksburg: .6

Frederick: .6

Baltimore north to Southern PA from 83 East is .2 or less.

 

Jackpot Zone appears to be Woodbridge to Stafford west to Opal/Warrenton.

Thanks.  I would take that much precip and be thrilled with it.

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NAM at 84 hours shows a nice vortex over Maine which is forcing the next vortex heading south from Canada to dig more SSE instead of SE as many models yesterday were showing

this is a good thing if correct

also, it shows the vortex off the SE coast getting out of the way

here's the 84 hr. panel, but if you run the loop, you can see what I'm talking about

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160204+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

maybe reverse of jan 2000

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NAM at 84 hours shows a nice vortex over Maine which is forcing the next vortex heading south from Canada to dig more SSE instead of SE as many models yesterday were showing

this is a good thing if correct

also, it shows the vortex off the SE coast getting out of the way

here's the 84 hr. panel, but if you run the loop, you can see what I'm talking about

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160204+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

The h5 there is definitely an improvement and could lead to something good but its also the 84 hour NAM so not worth much more analysis yet other then good trend.  Yea the NAM was good with the blizzard but thats simply because it trended more amped and the NAM is almost always over amped so it probably just got lucky kinda like the CRAS did that one time.  I wouldnt start using it as a go to model or anything. 

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The h5 there is definitely an improvement and could lead to something good but its also the 84 hour NAM so not worth much more analysis yet other then good trend.  Yea the NAM was good with the blizzard but thats simply because it trended more amped and the NAM is almost always over amped so it probably just got lucky kinda like the CRAS did that one time.  I wouldnt start using it as a go to model or anything. 

its a model, to be considered, have read here how its mocked, like a human, geez its a mesoscale mathematical tool, nothin else

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its a model, to be considered, have read here how its mocked, like a human, geez its a mesoscale mathematical tool, nothin else

Its worth a glance and once in a blue moon it can be correct, it scored a coup several years go too, but its wildly inconsistent, usually way over amped with developing systems, and prone to major issues with overdoing convection in the short term that throws it way off by the time you get out to 84 hours.  These issues have been observed over many years and I am unaware of any major fixes done to it recently that would make me think its success 2 weeks ago is a sign of the models improvement rather then just getting lucky.

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Its worth a glance and once in a blue moon it can be correct, it scored a coup several years go too, but its wildly inconsistent, usually way over amped with developing systems, and prone to major issues with overdoing convection in the short term that throws it way off by the time you get out to 84 hours.  These issues have been observed over many years and I am unaware of any major fixes done to it recently that would make me think its success 2 weeks ago is a sign of the models improvement rather then just getting lucky.

its still run , every day, Nothin left to say, I,m not a met

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Its worth a glance and once in a blue moon it can be correct, it scored a coup several years go too, but its wildly inconsistent, usually way over amped with developing systems, and prone to major issues with overdoing convection in the short term that throws it way off by the time you get out to 84 hours.  These issues have been observed over many years and I am unaware of any major fixes done to it recently that would make me think its success 2 weeks ago is a sign of the models improvement rather then just getting lucky.

I was thinking maybe it works on truly amped systems! So it can get those better than little events.

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Its worth a glance and once in a blue moon it can be correct, it scored a coup several years go too, but its wildly inconsistent, usually way over amped with developing systems, and prone to major issues with overdoing convection in the short term that throws it way off by the time you get out to 84 hours. These issues have been observed over many years and I am unaware of any major fixes done to it recently that would make me think its success 2 weeks ago is a sign of the models improvement rather then just getting lucky.

I have no problem Mitch mentioning it. Just another observation where it is at a certain point prior to an event. And yah we all know it is the NAM.

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Its worth a glance and once in a blue moon it can be correct, it scored a coup several years go too, but its wildly inconsistent, usually way over amped with developing systems, and prone to major issues with overdoing convection in the short term that throws it way off by the time you get out to 84 hours.  These issues have been observed over many years and I am unaware of any major fixes done to it recently that would make me think its success 2 weeks ago is a sign of the models improvement rather then just getting lucky.

They have made substantial improvements to the physics and DA over the few years.  Having said that, I almost never pay attention to the 12km parent and only look at the 4km nest (which admittedly did not do great with the northern precip for the blizzard).

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They have made substantial improvements to the physics and DA over the few years.  Having said that, I almost never pay attention to the 12km parent and only look at the 4km nest (which admittedly did not do great with the northern precip for the blizzard).

darn fool kids, that's the problem with this world!   :oldman:

 

 

 

 

j/k

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They have made substantial improvements to the physics and DA over the few years.  Having said that, I almost never pay attention to the 12km parent and only look at the 4km nest (which admittedly did not do great with the northern precip for the blizzard).

Thanks for the update, perhaps its worth seeing if it becomes more consistent with said improvements. 

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Looking at 500's it almost looks like the GFS is tempted to make that first low a player for us.

 

It's actually further east than 6z which is good. Pac wave is more amplified and digging deeper than 6z as well. Good trends but still a messed up setup big things to happen. I just want something to happen...lol

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Looking at 500's it almost looks like the GFS is tempted to make that first low a player for us.

ehh its tempting to get sucked into that first low thing, I was for a minute yesterday, but looking at how much spacing there is between that and the northern branch, I just can't see how it can possibly phase enough to come up and really affect our area.  The only thing that wave can do is run interference with a low being able to organize with the trough behind it. 

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ehh its tempting to get sucked into that first low thing, I was for a minute yesterday, but looking at how much spacing there is between that and the northern branch, I just can't see how it can possibly phase enough to come up and really affect our area.  The only thing that wave can do is run interference with a low being able to organize with the trough behind it. 

 

GFS is trying to look good. Better spacing and ns low is a good bit SW compared to 6z. This is a good run even if it doesn't do anything

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