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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Did I miss something as to why the max snowfall potential was raised?  Its from 7pm Wed to 7pm Sat... and Friday morning is the only threat I see and the 21z SREF plumes/00z NAM showed nothing... it looks like the max potential increased from this morning's map

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lwx/winter/MaxSnowWeb.png

 

ETA:  Even WPC has some graphics on it -- http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities

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Did I miss something as to why the max snowfall potential was raised? Its from 7pm Wed to 7pm Sat... and Friday morning is the only threat I see and the 21z SREF plumes/00z NAM showed nothing... it looks like the max potential increased from this morning's map

http://www.weather.gov/images/lwx/winter/MaxSnowWeb.png

ETA: Even WPC has some graphics on it -- http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities

4K NAM gives us a period of "meh" with heavier stuff just over the Delmarva. Certainly moved the heavier stuff westward up and down the coast. Ravens84 Storm part two maybe.

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Did I miss something as to why the max snowfall potential was raised?  Its from 7pm Wed to 7pm Sat... and Friday morning is the only threat I see and the 21z SREF plumes/00z NAM showed nothing... it looks like the max potential increased from this morning's map

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lwx/winter/MaxSnowWeb.png

 

ETA:  Even WPC has some graphics on it -- http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities

I think we're just more in range.

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All of our eggs have to be in the wave 2 basket, wave 1 will never work out 

They are tied together, wave 1s fate strongly depends on the spacing between it and wave 2 as well as the 50/50 low.  Wave 1 will probably go out to sea, but if you ever need a 500 mile shift either way inside 72 hrs this is a good pattern to pick.

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Slp off the se coast doesn't move very far thru 93

It's all blocked up in the Atlantic. This will be a diff solution again. Idk if better, but it can't get too much worse.

Oh, it's moved a great deal compared to the previous 3 runs. much farther east.   Don't know if this will be a good run for us, but the trend is definitely positive.

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