yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Did I miss something as to why the max snowfall potential was raised? Its from 7pm Wed to 7pm Sat... and Friday morning is the only threat I see and the 21z SREF plumes/00z NAM showed nothing... it looks like the max potential increased from this morning's map http://www.weather.gov/images/lwx/winter/MaxSnowWeb.png ETA: Even WPC has some graphics on it -- http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 FWIW I like the look of the 00z NAM @ 84 hours, looks like it trended weaker with the wave down south which could bode well for the follow up.....gives it more room to amplify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Did I miss something as to why the max snowfall potential was raised? Its from 7pm Wed to 7pm Sat... and Friday morning is the only threat I see and the 21z SREF plumes/00z NAM showed nothing... it looks like the max potential increased from this morning's map http://www.weather.gov/images/lwx/winter/MaxSnowWeb.png ETA: Even WPC has some graphics on it -- http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities 4K NAM gives us a period of "meh" with heavier stuff just over the Delmarva. Certainly moved the heavier stuff westward up and down the coast. Ravens84 Storm part two maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Did I miss something as to why the max snowfall potential was raised? Its from 7pm Wed to 7pm Sat... and Friday morning is the only threat I see and the 21z SREF plumes/00z NAM showed nothing... it looks like the max potential increased from this morning's map http://www.weather.gov/images/lwx/winter/MaxSnowWeb.png ETA: Even WPC has some graphics on it -- http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities I think we're just more in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 FWIW I like the look of the 00z NAM @ 84 hours, looks like it trended weaker with the wave down south which could bode well for the follow up.....gives it more room to amplify We need you to do the pbp for the EURO tonight. I know you can right this ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 RGEM wants nothing to do with Friday unless you live a good deal east of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Actually, there was some energy heading into the mid atlantic mid week that looked promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 All of our eggs have to be in the wave 2 basket, wave 1 will never work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 All of our eggs have to be in the wave 2 basket, wave 1 will never work out They are tied together, wave 1s fate strongly depends on the spacing between it and wave 2 as well as the 50/50 low. Wave 1 will probably go out to sea, but if you ever need a 500 mile shift either way inside 72 hrs this is a good pattern to pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Frankie will be happy with the GFS run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Frankie will be happy with the GFS run so far. How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 How so?Low off the se coast looks way out to sea to start with imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Low off the se coast looks way out to sea to start with imho. Yup..much farther out to sea..and weaker? Don't know if that'll help...but can't hurt I'd think. ETA..did a trend loop of 6z, 12z, 18z..and vastly weaker and east-er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Also 2nd vort seems to be digging more than 18z @ hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 This is going to end up good IMO, first wave weak and OTS, allows second piece to dig more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Slp off the se coast doesn't move very far thru 93 It's all blocked up in the Atlantic. This will be a diff solution again. Idk if better, but it can't get too much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Slp off the se coast doesn't move very far thru 93 It's all blocked up in the Atlantic. This will be a diff solution again. Idk if better, but it can't get too much worse. Oh, it's moved a great deal compared to the previous 3 runs. much farther east. Don't know if this will be a good run for us, but the trend is definitely positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Regardless of the solution, getting the southern wave out of the way is prob required for us to stand a chance. Good run early for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Regardless of the solution, getting the southern wave out of the way is prob required for us to stand a chance. Good run early for sure Its not going to get there for us this run, but its a better run for us in the overall picture IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Meh thru 120. Low in the GL elongates. Never seen that before. Atlantic is a blocked mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Still not digging enough for us, but I guess we can say that first low being weaker and moving out was a plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yeah, we see this all the time. Lol http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020400&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Meh thru 120. Low in the GL elongates. Never seen that before. Atlantic is a blocked mess. Yup, noticed that too...pressures were slanted SSE and then...horizontal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Still not digging enough for us, but I guess we can say that first low being weaker and moving out was a plusProblem is, I think it's prevented from digging thanks to all the heavy traffic in the atmosphere. We're screwed if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 It's over before 144 hrs with nothing to show for it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 40 and drizzle on this run thanks GL low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 So we got what we wanted with the first lp further east and weaker. And it's worthless. Just another result to chew on. I would think that the second one has time to dig further south and give us another scenario or two to ponder over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 This entire set up is just way too complicated. I wouldn't trust any solution even within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 00z GGEM is going to be a no UKIE says go to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 This entire set up is just way too complicated. I wouldn't trust any solution even within 48 hours.We might not even knows it's snowing till it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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