SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Pretty unusual at short range to see the euro most bullish about the post frontal storm. Much more so than the Nam is or even the RGEM. Not too common at 48 hours leads. 18z GFS still not buying it. It will be interesting to see which ends up closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I feel like were getting extremely unlucky with this setup.... The initial low isnt phased enough to hit us, but it phases just enough to steal energy from the follow up wave and also gives that one less room to amplify. Still time for things to change i just find it pretty crazy how we might get screwed with this one. At least weve had our HECS, New Englanders must be really frustrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 18z GFS still not buying it. It will be interesting to see which ends up closer. I would guess the euro hit the western edge of the envelope and the only direction it can shift is east. Just a wag but looking at all the guidance today it's definitely the furthest west and 18z stuff so far didn't move that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I feel like were getting extremely unlucky with this setup.... The initial low isnt phased enough to hit us, but it phases just enough to steal energy from the follow up wave and also gives that one less room to amplify. Still time for things to change i just find it pretty crazy how we might get screwed with this one. At least weve had our HECS, New Englanders must be really frustrated. We have been lucky the last few years and with the blizzard. What you are describing here is more typical! We get just missed a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 #itsnothappening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 #itsnothappening Oddly appropriate today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 congrats Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 all is not lost as all this vort energy could make for a nice 50/50 setup for our next hecs Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 18z got the southern wave out of the way more but then proceeded to form a Miller Bail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 18z got the southern wave out of the more but then proceeded to form a Miller Bail. Even boston gets screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 100 different solutions in the last 2 days, but they all screw DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 100 different solutions in the last 2 days, but they all screw DC. On the bright side, the next fantasy storm has showed up... and it looks tasty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Day 9-15 op gfs looks sweet... for 6 more hours at least. That's our real threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Im always looking ahead, and honestly the day 10-15 progs look really, really good right now so if we somehow lose out next week hope is not lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 #itsnothappening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 I'm not so sure about d10 - 15 anymore. Ens are starting to have some run to run continuity of looking pretty crappy. I hope they're wrong of course but can't really ignore it. Probably a window as the big cold departs and ao flips back + at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Oddly appropriate today... Heh...yeah, with Rand Paul supposedly dropping out of the race (one less clown in that car now!)? Guess he's not feeling "Rand"-y-tastic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Day 9-15 op gfs looks sweet... for 6 more hours at least. That's our real threat. Notice the date...Presidents' Day, and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I'm not so sure about d10 - 15 anymore. Ens are starting to have some run to run continuity of looking pretty crappy. I hope they're wrong of course but can't really ignore it. Probably a window as the big cold departs and ao flips back + at least. I've noticed that in the GEFS, and I haven't exactly been encouraged by it. This is why I was a bit puzzled by some of the earlier statements in here that "around or after the 20th" (or there about) will be our next real opportunity. Hoping the ensembles are just washed out with a lot of spread at that time, but we'll see. I'm sure after whatever cold we get in the next week or so things will relax to some extent, but somehow I cannot see us going into a December redux for the last part of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 I've noticed that in the GEFS, and I haven't exactly been encouraged by it. This is why I was a bit puzzled by some of the earlier statements in here that "around or after the 20th" (or there about) will be our next real opportunity. Hoping the ensembles are just washed out with a lot of spread at that time, but we'll see. I'm sure after whatever cold we get in the next week or so things will relax to some extent, but somehow I cannot see us going into a December redux for the last part of the season. Both the eps/gfs are starting to show below normal heights from AK to the desert SW late in the period. Might be nothing more than something transient. My best guess is it looks like a solid Feb cold shot before d10. We'd probably get another reinforcing cold high after that before anything bad happens so no sense worrying about now. 12 days is an eternity. I wouldn't care about a transient 3-4 day warm up. That's really common in any winter. I think what makes me a little nervous is what the weeklies showed on Monday. Week 3 was really bad and now the globals are taking on some of that flavor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Ok, it looks as if we have hit rock bottom. It can only get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm not so sure about d10 - 15 anymore. Ens are starting to have some run to run continuity of looking pretty crappy. I hope they're wrong of course but can't really ignore it. Probably a window as the big cold departs and ao flips back + at least. . I've been expecting that. Models might have been too fast but I've just had a feeling things relax for a while mid month. I'm becoming optimistic we get a good shot at sometging as the pattern breaks down though. The only way this whole day 5-7 mess works is if the northern stream really bombs something fast or phases with the stj thing. Long shots right now. The day 10 thing is a more typical way we score. Get a system coming across as the pattern relaxes but cold is established in front of it. After that we probably suffer for a week but I don't think it's winter over. I agree with the cansips and para euro that we see one last run in March with blocking and a trough in the east. Yea it's a little late but it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 . I've been expecting that. Models might have been too fast but I've just had a feeling things relax for a while mid month. I'm becoming optimistic we get a good shot at sometging as the pattern breaks down though. The only way this whole day 5-7 mess works is if the northern stream really bombs something fast or phases with the stj thing. Long shots right now. The day 10 thing is a more typical way we score. Get a system coming across as the pattern relaxes but cold is established in front of it. After that we probably suffer for a week but I don't think it's winter over. I agree with the cansips and para euro that we see one last run in March with blocking and a trough in the east. Yea it's a little late but it can happen. To be honest, I think this is a pretty good assessment given the current indications. The day 5-7 look is very convoluted, though definitely cold. Shortly after that, there appears to be some good potential as the 18Z GFS demonstrated. After that, I can see it relaxing/warming up, though hopefully reasonably transient. Some here don't care for late season snows, I know. But personally, I would not mind at all scoring an early March system and don't think it's out of the question. It's not typically the best time for us, but we've had a few really solid snows in the past 2-3 years, including even staying below freezing for a day after the events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Just got home and got to really look @ the data. Man, if it plays out like the mods are showing right now that will really frustrate me. I feel like we're really close to a snowstorm, but just getting really unlucky with the timing of the two short waves. We're still in the time period where things can change in a big way, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 To be honest, I think this is a pretty good assessment given the current indications. The day 5-7 look is very convoluted, though definitely cold. Shortly after that, there appears to be some good potential as the 18Z GFS demonstrated. After that, I can see it relaxing/warming up, though hopefully reasonably transient. Some here don't care for late season snows, I know. But personally, I would not mind at all scoring an early March system and don't think it's out of the question. It's not typically the best time for us, but we've had a few really solid snows in the past 2-3 years, including even staying below freezing for a day after the events. we have no idea what exactly is gonna happen in 5-7 days. Its february 3, and i am not even going to pretend to know what is gonna happen in march. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 we have no idea what exactly is gonna happen in 5-7 days. Its february 3, and i am not even going to pretend to know what is gonna happen in march. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I agree with that assessment. I'm figuring Friday 12z runs will have a handle on what's going to happen at the beginning of next week (unless they already have reached the correct solution today, which I doubt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Just got home and got to really look @ the data. Man, if it plays out like the mods are showing right now that will really frustrate me. I feel like we're really close to a snowstorm, but just getting really unlucky with the timing of the two short waves. We're still in the time period where things can change in a big way, so we'll see. Yeah this basically sums it up. Silver lining is it's not really a letdown because there never has been a consistently modeled threat so it's not like we've been expecting something big. The regulars here have done a good job of keeping my expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 poor ron, rand pulled out this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Just got home and got to really look @ the data. Man, if it plays out like the mods are showing right now that will really frustrate me. I feel like we're really close to a snowstorm, but just getting really unlucky with the timing of the two short waves. We're still in the time period where things can change in a big way, so we'll see. You're in a better spot than us. Of course miller b's each have their own personality. If we get something you almost always get something. But not the other way around. One thing that is a little intriguing is the depth of the trough and slow eastward movement. I've seen a few runs where multiple lows get spit out in front. An evolution like that would likely reduce the chances of a big storm but I only need 2" at BWI from one event before the 15th to keep both my kids in college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 You're in a better spot than us. Of course miller b's each have their own personality. If we get something you almost always get something. But not the other way around. One thing that is a little intriguing is the depth of the trough and slow eastward movement. I've seen a few runs where multiple lows get spit out in front. An evolution like that would likely reduce the chances of a big storm but I only need 2" at BWI from one event before the 15th to keep both my kids in college. Your problems would be solved if they transferred to a small college in Colorado and sold drugs to pay their way through school. The bonus for you is a free place to stay while skiing sky "high".You may have also noticed, by the way, I'm dying to lose this bet. I'm pure weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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