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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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I feel like were getting extremely unlucky with this setup.... The initial low isnt phased enough to hit us, but it phases just enough to steal energy from the follow up wave and also gives that one less room to amplify. Still time for things to change i just find it pretty crazy how we might get screwed with this one. At least weve had our HECS, New Englanders must be really frustrated.

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18z GFS still not buying it. It will be interesting to see which ends up closer.

I would guess the euro hit the western edge of the envelope and the only direction it can shift is east. Just a wag but looking at all the guidance today it's definitely the furthest west and 18z stuff so far didn't move that way

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I feel like were getting extremely unlucky with this setup.... The initial low isnt phased enough to hit us, but it phases just enough to steal energy from the follow up wave and also gives that one less room to amplify. Still time for things to change i just find it pretty crazy how we might get screwed with this one. At least weve had our HECS, New Englanders must be really frustrated.

We have been lucky the last few years and with the blizzard. What you are describing here is more typical! We get just missed a lot

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I'm not so sure about d10 - 15 anymore. Ens are starting to have some run to run continuity of looking pretty crappy. I hope they're wrong of course but can't really ignore it.

Probably a window as the big cold departs and ao flips back + at least.

 

I've noticed that in the GEFS, and I haven't exactly been encouraged by it.  This is why I was a bit puzzled by some of the earlier statements in here that "around or after the 20th" (or there about) will be our next real opportunity.  Hoping the ensembles are just washed out with a lot of spread at that time, but we'll see.  I'm sure after whatever cold we get in the next week or so things will relax to some extent, but somehow I cannot see us going into a December redux for the last part of the season.

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I've noticed that in the GEFS, and I haven't exactly been encouraged by it. This is why I was a bit puzzled by some of the earlier statements in here that "around or after the 20th" (or there about) will be our next real opportunity. Hoping the ensembles are just washed out with a lot of spread at that time, but we'll see. I'm sure after whatever cold we get in the next week or so things will relax to some extent, but somehow I cannot see us going into a December redux for the last part of the season.

Both the eps/gfs are starting to show below normal heights from AK to the desert SW late in the period. Might be nothing more than something transient. My best guess is it looks like a solid Feb cold shot before d10. We'd probably get another reinforcing cold high after that before anything bad happens so no sense worrying about now. 12 days is an eternity.

I wouldn't care about a transient 3-4 day warm up. That's really common in any winter. I think what makes me a little nervous is what the weeklies showed on Monday. Week 3 was really bad and now the globals are taking on some of that flavor.

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I'm not so sure about d10 - 15 anymore. Ens are starting to have some run to run continuity of looking pretty crappy. I hope they're wrong of course but can't really ignore it.

Probably a window as the big cold departs and ao flips back + at least.

. I've been expecting that. Models might have been too fast but I've just had a feeling things relax for a while mid month. I'm becoming optimistic we get a good shot at sometging as the pattern breaks down though. The only way this whole day 5-7 mess works is if the northern stream really bombs something fast or phases with the stj thing. Long shots right now. The day 10 thing is a more typical way we score. Get a system coming across as the pattern relaxes but cold is established in front of it. After that we probably suffer for a week but I don't think it's winter over. I agree with the cansips and para euro that we see one last run in March with blocking and a trough in the east. Yea it's a little late but it can happen.
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. I've been expecting that. Models might have been too fast but I've just had a feeling things relax for a while mid month. I'm becoming optimistic we get a good shot at sometging as the pattern breaks down though. The only way this whole day 5-7 mess works is if the northern stream really bombs something fast or phases with the stj thing. Long shots right now. The day 10 thing is a more typical way we score. Get a system coming across as the pattern relaxes but cold is established in front of it. After that we probably suffer for a week but I don't think it's winter over. I agree with the cansips and para euro that we see one last run in March with blocking and a trough in the east. Yea it's a little late but it can happen.

 

To be honest, I think this is a pretty good assessment given the current indications.  The day 5-7 look is very convoluted, though definitely cold.  Shortly after that, there appears to be some good potential as the 18Z GFS demonstrated.  After that, I can see it relaxing/warming up, though hopefully reasonably transient.  Some here don't care for late season snows, I know.  But personally, I would not mind at all scoring an early March system and don't think it's out of the question.  It's not typically the best time for us, but we've had a few really solid snows in the past 2-3 years, including even staying below freezing for a day after the events.

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Just got home and got to really look @ the data. Man, if it plays out like the mods are showing right now that will really frustrate me. I feel like we're really close to a snowstorm, but just getting really unlucky with the timing of the two short waves. We're still in the time period where things can change in a big way, so we'll see. 

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To be honest, I think this is a pretty good assessment given the current indications. The day 5-7 look is very convoluted, though definitely cold. Shortly after that, there appears to be some good potential as the 18Z GFS demonstrated. After that, I can see it relaxing/warming up, though hopefully reasonably transient. Some here don't care for late season snows, I know. But personally, I would not mind at all scoring an early March system and don't think it's out of the question. It's not typically the best time for us, but we've had a few really solid snows in the past 2-3 years, including even staying below freezing for a day after the events.

we have no idea what exactly is gonna happen in 5-7 days. Its february 3, and i am not even going to pretend to know what is gonna happen in march.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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we have no idea what exactly is gonna happen in 5-7 days. Its february 3, and i am not even going to pretend to know what is gonna happen in march.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I agree with that assessment. I'm figuring Friday 12z runs will have a handle on what's going to happen at the beginning of next week (unless they already have reached the correct solution today, which I doubt).

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Just got home and got to really look @ the data. Man, if it plays out like the mods are showing right now that will really frustrate me. I feel like we're really close to a snowstorm, but just getting really unlucky with the timing of the two short waves. We're still in the time period where things can change in a big way, so we'll see. 

 

Yeah this basically sums it up.  Silver lining is it's not really a letdown because there never has been a consistently modeled threat so it's not like we've been expecting something big.  The regulars here have done a good job of keeping my expectations in check.

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Just got home and got to really look @ the data. Man, if it plays out like the mods are showing right now that will really frustrate me. I feel like we're really close to a snowstorm, but just getting really unlucky with the timing of the two short waves. We're still in the time period where things can change in a big way, so we'll see.

You're in a better spot than us. Of course miller b's each have their own personality. If we get something you almost always get something. But not the other way around.

One thing that is a little intriguing is the depth of the trough and slow eastward movement. I've seen a few runs where multiple lows get spit out in front. An evolution like that would likely reduce the chances of a big storm but I only need 2" at BWI from one event before the 15th to keep both my kids in college.

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You're in a better spot than us. Of course miller b's each have their own personality. If we get something you almost always get something. But not the other way around.

One thing that is a little intriguing is the depth of the trough and slow eastward movement. I've seen a few runs where multiple lows get spit out in front. An evolution like that would likely reduce the chances of a big storm but I only need 2" at BWI from one event before the 15th to keep both my kids in college.

Your problems would be solved if they transferred to a small college in Colorado and sold drugs to pay their way through school. The bonus for you is a free place to stay while skiing sky "high".

You may have also noticed, by the way, I'm dying to lose this bet. I'm pure weenie.

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