CAPE Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Not a big snow guy. What can I tell you. I like frequent events and long duration. My wife likes that about me. I like winter to feel like winter...cold. And when it snows it stays actual snow for 5-6 days, not 2 days then a huge deflating melty blob. So I am with you in general. Back on topic- GFS ens look absent of any legit snow for next 10 days in the metros and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Surprised no one mentioned the CMC. Though the surface reflection is minimal the 500's are screaming potential day 8 - 10.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 This winter was never supposed to be cold though. We're pretty lucky that Jan turned around like it did. Strong nino's are known for AN temps in general. With Feb standing the best chance at being BN. As it stands right now Jan is BN at all 3 airports and will probably finish BN. That's surprising but not nearly as surprising as getting destroyed by a January blizzard. We're one of the very few areas east of the Rockies with AN snow for the year. I too love deep winter cold and squeaky dusty snow on the ground but that was never really in the cards this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I have a list at home but... http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Single station -> extremes -> year range: 1980-2016 -> Length of period 2 or 3 days (will miss some if you only do two, or even PDII if you do three). Station selection - station of choice. Thanks, very helpful. I assume this is a blip - unless anyone knows of a freak August snow in 2004? DCA--> 2004-08-11, T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Def a good look here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 If we took the Day 10 EURO @ face value, just for fun... Check out the ULL in South Central Canada, it is racing East and building HP behind it. We have some very mild NAO ridging. Then we have the low forming around Texas & the PNA rising. I'd imagine if the EURO ran beyond 240 hours it would have shown a large winter storm around 276-288 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 If we took the Day 10 EURO @ face value, just for fun... Check out the ULL in South Central Canada, it is racing East and building HP behind it. We have some very mild NAO ridging. Then we have the low forming around Texas & the PNA rising. I'd imagine if the EURO ran beyond 240 hours it would have shown a large winter storm around 276-288 hours. that's what the control run is for ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Not a big snow guy. What can I tell you. I like frequent events and long duration. My wife likes that about me. BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Surprised no one mentioned the CMC. Though the surface reflection is minimal the 500's are screaming potential day 8 - 10.. Yeah, that h5 map does stand out, but....CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 If we took the Day 10 EURO @ face value, just for fun... Check out the ULL in South Central Canada, it is racing East and building HP behind it. We have some very mild NAO ridging. Then we have the low forming around Texas & the PNA rising. I'd imagine if the EURO ran beyond 240 hours it would have shown a large winter storm around 276-288 hours. I hope the Euro is more right than the boring ass GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Yeah, that h5 map does stand out, but....CMC i think cmc was the first (or one of the first) to sniff out snowzilla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Thanks, very helpful. I assume this is a blip - unless anyone knows of a freak August snow in 2004? DCA--> 2004-08-11, T Hail. Gets counted as snow for some reason. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2004/8/11/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Washington&req_state=DC&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=20232&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 yes please yesplease.PNG we dont have one Hecs winters anymore. Any less than 3 is a fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Both the GGEM and EURO are sniffing out some potential in the next 8-12 days... nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 yes please Matt, last night's para euro also had a single closed contour ull exiting the rockies with SLP developing over the tx/nm border. You have to look at the MSLP/h5 panels if you are using wxbell. The regular SLP/precip panels don't show it. Obviously nothing to take seriously yet. The big MW low needs to run its actual vs modeled course first. One way or another I think we're tracking something within a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Yeah, that h5 map does stand out, but....CMC Justin Berk swears by it so it must be a great model. In all seriousness, didn't the CMC outperform the Euro for the blizzard? Most of my attention was on the Euro and the GFS with only cursory glances at the CMC so maybe I am just remembering wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I have a list at home but... http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Single station -> extremes -> year range: 1980-2016 -> Length of period 2 or 3 days (will miss some if you only do two, or even PDII if you do three). Station selection - station of choice. that's actually kind of clutch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 we dont have one Hecs winters anymore. Any less than 3 is a fail hecs' are the new mecs' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Zwyts & Bob! Check out the 12z EURO EPS Day 10-12....wow....You can see the setup, it is smoothed out of course being that far out, but it is almost amazingly identical to what we just experienced! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 EPS and individual members in good agreement for not much snow out to day 10. Mean <1"...a few members with something moderate 8-10 day time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 The signal is there Hberg. You can see it more clearly early on as the shortwave digs through the rockies. Gets pretty muddy afterwards. At least we have something to watch other than snow melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 The signal is there Hberg. You can see it more clearly early on as the shortwave digs through the rockies. Gets pretty muddy afterwards. At least we have something to watch other than snow melt. Yep, just gotta be patient over the next 7-10 days....hopefully this time next week we have something showing up in the medium range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Yep, just gotta be patient over the next 7-10 days....hopefully this time next week we have something showing up in the medium range I think the bigger story is an even stronger signal for a -AO developing. Every run the red gets redder. AN heights over GL this run too. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Zwyts & Bob! Check out the 12z EURO EPS Day 10-12....wow....You can see the setup, it is smoothed out of course being that far out, but it is almost amazingly identical to what we just experienced! DT's Facebook post earlier agrees with you too. Getting that deja vu feeling. Hope we are tracking early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Not a big snow guy. What can I tell you. I like frequent events and long duration. My wife likes that about me. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Yep, just gotta be patient over the next 7-10 days....hopefully this time next week we have something showing up in the medium range ya we need to be patient. Our BECS just ended a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 This winter was never supposed to be cold though. We're pretty lucky that Jan turned around like it did. Strong nino's are known for AN temps in general. With Feb standing the best chance at being BN. As it stands right now Jan is BN at all 3 airports and will probably finish BN. That's surprising but not nearly as surprising as getting destroyed by a January blizzard. We're one of the very few areas east of the Rockies with AN snow for the year. I too love deep winter cold and squeaky dusty snow on the ground but that was never really in the cards this year. Very true. It was either big storm or big bust for us this year. Fortunately, we enter Feb playing with house money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I think the bigger story is an even stronger signal for a -AO developing. Every run the red gets redder. AN heights over GL this run too. heh. remember when all the blues and reds were ALL in the wrong place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Zwyts & Bob! Check out the 12z EURO EPS Day 10-12....wow....You can see the setup, it is smoothed out of course being that far out, but it is almost amazingly identical to what we just experienced! 12z EPS day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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