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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Not a big snow guy. What can I tell you. I like frequent events and long duration. My wife likes that about me.

I like winter to feel like winter...cold. And when it snows it stays actual snow for 5-6 days, not 2 days then a huge deflating melty blob. So I am with you in general.

 

Back on topic- GFS ens look absent of any legit snow for next 10 days in the metros and east.

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This winter was never supposed to be cold though. We're pretty lucky that Jan turned around like it did. Strong nino's are known for AN temps in general. With Feb standing the best chance at being BN. As it stands right now Jan is BN at all 3 airports and will probably finish BN. That's surprising but not nearly as surprising as getting destroyed by a January blizzard. We're one of the very few areas east of the Rockies with AN snow for the year.

 

I too love deep winter cold and squeaky dusty snow on the ground but that was never really in the cards this year. 

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I have a list at home but... http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

 

Single station -> extremes -> year range: 1980-2016 -> Length of period 2 or 3 days (will miss some if you only do two, or even PDII if you do three).  Station selection - station of choice.

 

 

Thanks, very helpful.

 

I assume this is a blip - unless anyone knows of a freak August snow in 2004?

 

DCA--> 2004-08-11, T

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If we took the Day 10 EURO @ face value, just for fun...

 

Check out the ULL in South Central Canada, it is racing East and building HP behind it. We have some very mild NAO ridging.

 

Then we have the low forming around Texas & the PNA rising.

 

I'd imagine if the EURO ran beyond 240 hours it would have shown a large winter storm around 276-288 hours.

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If we took the Day 10 EURO @ face value, just for fun...

 

Check out the ULL in South Central Canada, it is racing East and building HP behind it. We have some very mild NAO ridging.

 

Then we have the low forming around Texas & the PNA rising.

 

I'd imagine if the EURO ran beyond 240 hours it would have shown a large winter storm around 276-288 hours.

that's what the control run is for    ;-)

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If we took the Day 10 EURO @ face value, just for fun...

 

Check out the ULL in South Central Canada, it is racing East and building HP behind it. We have some very mild NAO ridging.

 

Then we have the low forming around Texas & the PNA rising.

 

I'd imagine if the EURO ran beyond 240 hours it would have shown a large winter storm around 276-288 hours.

I hope the Euro is more right than the boring ass GFS

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Thanks, very helpful.

 

I assume this is a blip - unless anyone knows of a freak August snow in 2004?

 

DCA--> 2004-08-11, T

Hail. Gets counted as snow for some reason. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2004/8/11/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Washington&req_state=DC&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=20232&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999

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yes please

 

 

 

Matt, last night's para euro also had a single closed contour ull exiting the rockies with SLP developing over the tx/nm border. You have to look at the MSLP/h5 panels if you are using wxbell. The regular SLP/precip panels don't show it. Obviously nothing to take seriously yet. The big MW low needs to run its actual vs modeled course first. 

 

One way or another I think we're tracking something within a week. 

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The signal is there Hberg. You can see it more clearly early on as the shortwave digs through the rockies. Gets pretty muddy afterwards. At least we have something to watch other than snow melt. 

 

Yep, just gotta be patient over the next 7-10 days....hopefully this time next week we have something showing up in the medium range

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Yep, just gotta be patient over the next 7-10 days....hopefully this time next week we have something showing up in the medium range

 

I think the bigger story is an even stronger signal for a -AO developing. Every run the red gets redder. AN heights over GL this run too. heh. 

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Zwyts & Bob!

 

Check out the 12z EURO EPS Day 10-12....wow....You can see the setup, it is smoothed out of course being that far out, but it is almost amazingly identical to what we just experienced!

DT's Facebook post earlier agrees with you too.  Getting that deja vu feeling.  Hope we are tracking early next week.  :)

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This winter was never supposed to be cold though. We're pretty lucky that Jan turned around like it did. Strong nino's are known for AN temps in general. With Feb standing the best chance at being BN. As it stands right now Jan is BN at all 3 airports and will probably finish BN. That's surprising but not nearly as surprising as getting destroyed by a January blizzard. We're one of the very few areas east of the Rockies with AN snow for the year.

 

I too love deep winter cold and squeaky dusty snow on the ground but that was never really in the cards this year. 

 

Very true.  It was either big storm or big bust for us this year.  Fortunately, we enter Feb playing with house money.

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