psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I still think the best shot is to have the lead wave phase and come up the coast, still enough time for the models to trend that way I don't know about the "best shot" but it sure would be the simplest way to get it done. Everything else is complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Waiting for the 15z SREF plumes... but looks a lil better on the SREFs for Friday morning IMO... which prob doesn't mean much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 120ish could be a nice wedgefest if this was April in a La Nina and it wasn't morning. Trough is so big and flat at the base when things start to cook. 1st wave might be a better hope... it's kinda sorta like Jan 2011 if you are slightly drunk and squint. So most of my nights out while in college, got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro ens didn't shed any light on anything except that the southern wave won't run the coast and will get in the way somehow. Mega spread to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Waiting for the 15z SREF plumes... but looks a lil better on the SREFs for Friday morning IMO... which prob doesn't mean much Hey they actually did pretty well with the blizzard, they kept bringing big snows to NYC before the globals caught on if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro ens didn't shed any light on anything except that the southern wave won't run the coast and will get in the way somehow. Mega spread to say the least. I only have it out to 6.5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro ens didn't shed any light on anything except that the southern wave won't run the coast and will get in the way somehow. Mega spread to say the least. I only count 3 or 4 that give snow to SC like the operational....maybe that might be a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro ens didn't shed any light on anything except that the southern wave won't run the coast and will get in the way somehow. Mega spread to say the least. e41 seems to be on to the right idea. Except the low runs up the potomac and makes landfall in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The EPS control does indeed follow the OP in its explosive deepening of the lead wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I only count 3 or 4 that give snow to SC like the operational....maybe that might be a good signIt's all over. Definitely a stronger trend with the lead wave and more runs hook that in and hit New England. Some still manage to pop something behind it. Mean is down though. We're now almost in between our two good options but given trends perhaps were getting to where yoda and highzenburg are right and that stj wave is our better shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 yes, but that's because the ARW members were erroneously amped. They also brought big snows to Albany. Hey they actually did pretty well with the blizzard, they kept bringing big snows to NYC before the globals caught on if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It's all over. Definitely a stronger trend with the lead wave and more runs hook that in and hit New England. Some still manage to pop something behind it. Mean is down though. We're now almost in between our two good options but given trends perhaps were getting to where yoda and highzenburg are right and that stj wave is our better shot. It's not a cop-out and I'm not suggesting we will get a decent event, I just think it's way too complicated to be certain of anything. This sorta reminds me of the 3/01 storm that was progged to go to our south, then shifted north to slam us late Saturday into Sunday, then the 6Z runs Saturday morning finally correctly shifted it further north so we got diddly. If nothing else, this will be entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It's all over. Definitely a stronger trend with the lead wave and more runs hook that in and hit New England. Some still manage to pop something behind it. Mean is down though. We're now almost in between our two good options but given trends perhaps were getting to where yoda and highzenburg are right and that stj wave is our better shot. I am not sure if the explosive deepening that the EC/NAVGEM shows is good for us or bad for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I am not sure if the explosive deepening that the EC/NAVGEM shows is good for us or bad for us if the precip shield finds its way over us, it's good otherwise, it messes up the 2nd trough....probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 EPS also look somewhat interesting Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It's not a cop-out and I'm not suggesting we will get a decent event, I just think it's way too complicated to be certain of anything. This sorta reminds me of the 3/01 storm that was progged to go to our south, then shifted north to slam us late Saturday into Sunday, then the 6Z runs Saturday morning finally correctly shifted it further north so we got diddly. If nothing else, this will be entertaining. yea I honestly have no idea where this will end up. I'm getting more confident we have a chance after this too like the gfs shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 if the precip shield finds its way over us, it's good otherwise, it messes up the 2nd trough....probably NAVGEM is good, EC bad Which one will blink first? I think we know, unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I think we probably should start pulling for wave 1...it's not like that'll make a difference, but yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I think we probably should start pulling for wave 1...it's not like that'll make a difference, but yeah... I agree, but I don't see how it makes it up the coast far enough with the trough coming in from the north/nw. But, there's time for things to change, so that's going in our favor. We'll know when we're probably out of time when the Euro/GFS/Ukie are close to one another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I think we probably should start pulling for wave 1...it's not like that'll make a difference, but yeah... I am pulling for which ever wave gives me the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Not that the NAM is exactly right as depicted, but looking at this 5H map, which isn't too far off the Euro, getting the southern vort to pull north with that one in the North Dakota bearing down on it looks unlikely at this point. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160203+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 yes, but that's because the ARW members were erroneously amped. They also brought big snows to Albany. Ah ha, so right answer for the wrong reason. Thanks for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I think we probably should start pulling for wave 1...it's not like that'll make a difference, but yeah... welcome back to the lowest pit of the valley...we will probably escape these 2 storms unscathed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Not that the NAM is exactly right as depicted, but looking at this 5H map, which isn't too far off the Euro, getting the southern vort to pull north with that one in the North Dakota bearing down on it looks unlikely at this point. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160203+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Yeah, I looked at that too. No way it makes it up here with that s/w on it's ass like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Yeah, I looked at that too. No way it makes it up here with that s/w on it's ass like that. Well, we hope that it gets pushed out quicker than now modeled by the Euro and then give the northern one a go of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Pretty unusual at short range to see the euro most bullish about the post frontal storm. Much more so than the Nam is or even the RGEM. Not too common at 48 hours leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 e41 seems to be on to the right idea. Except the low runs up the potomac and makes landfall in DC. All I can say is lol that's happening!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Para euro is a miller fail. NMD does ok with a couple inches. The mini deform or inv trough or whatever you call the central VA jack on the euro op is in nmd/central PA on the 12z para run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Reading some of these comments, it's almost like the blizzard didn't happen...sheesh. If tomorrow night is any indication, models (rightly) will have trouble handling this 3-wave quick flow scenario. Plenty of time for it to all shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Reading some of these comments, it's almost like the blizzard didn't happen...sheesh. If tomorrow night is any indication, models (rightly) will have trouble handling this 3-wave quick flow scenario. Plenty of time for it to all shake out. I already comment on this... it is what can you do for me now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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