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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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120ish could be a nice wedgefest if this was April in a La Nina and it wasn't morning. Trough is so big and flat at the base when things start to cook. 1st wave might be a better hope... it's kinda sorta like Jan 2011 if you are slightly drunk and squint.

 

So most of my nights out while in college, got it. 

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Euro ens didn't shed any light on anything except that the southern wave won't run the coast and will get in the way somehow. 

 

Mega spread to say the least. 

e41 seems to be on to the right idea. Except the low runs up the potomac and makes landfall in DC.

 

sJ2ZOPW.jpg

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I only count 3 or 4 that give snow to SC like the operational....maybe that might be a good sign

It's all over. Definitely a stronger trend with the lead wave and more runs hook that in and hit New England. Some still manage to pop something behind it. Mean is down though. We're now almost in between our two good options but given trends perhaps were getting to where yoda and highzenburg are right and that stj wave is our better shot.
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It's all over. Definitely a stronger trend with the lead wave and more runs hook that in and hit New England. Some still manage to pop something behind it. Mean is down though. We're now almost in between our two good options but given trends perhaps were getting to where yoda and highzenburg are right and that stj wave is our better shot.

It's not a cop-out and I'm not suggesting we will get a decent event, I just think it's way too complicated to be certain of anything. This sorta reminds me of the 3/01 storm that was progged to go to our south, then shifted north to slam us late Saturday into Sunday, then the 6Z runs Saturday morning finally correctly shifted it further north so we got diddly. If nothing else, this will be entertaining.

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It's all over. Definitely a stronger trend with the lead wave and more runs hook that in and hit New England. Some still manage to pop something behind it. Mean is down though. We're now almost in between our two good options but given trends perhaps were getting to where yoda and highzenburg are right and that stj wave is our better shot.

 

I am not sure if the explosive deepening that the EC/NAVGEM shows is good for us or bad for us

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It's not a cop-out and I'm not suggesting we will get a decent event, I just think it's way too complicated to be certain of anything. This sorta reminds me of the 3/01 storm that was progged to go to our south, then shifted north to slam us late Saturday into Sunday, then the 6Z runs Saturday morning finally correctly shifted it further north so we got diddly. If nothing else, this will be entertaining.

yea I honestly have no idea where this will end up. I'm getting more confident we have a chance after this too like the gfs shows.
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I think we probably should start pulling for wave 1...it's not like that'll make a difference, but yeah...

I agree, but I don't see how it makes it up the coast far enough with the trough coming in from the north/nw. But, there's time for things to change, so that's going in our favor. We'll know when we're probably out of time when the Euro/GFS/Ukie are close to one another.

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Not that the NAM is exactly right as depicted, but looking at this 5H map, which isn't too far off the Euro, getting the southern vort to pull north with that one in the North Dakota bearing down on it looks unlikely at this point.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160203+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

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Not that the NAM is exactly right as depicted, but looking at this 5H map, which isn't too far off the Euro, getting the southern vort to pull north with that one in the North Dakota bearing down on it looks unlikely at this point.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160203+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Yeah, I looked at that too.  No way it makes it up here with that s/w on it's ass like that.

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Reading some of these comments, it's almost like the blizzard didn't happen...sheesh.

 

If tomorrow night is any indication, models (rightly) will have trouble handling this 3-wave quick flow scenario.  Plenty of time for it to all shake out.

I already comment on this... it is what can you do for me now...

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