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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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I raise my white flag with 12z. I totally assumed the euro would go north with the transfer based on the NS position. Of course it develops over NC and OBX instead. Don't know what to think. At all. 

This whole period has way too many moving parts to get a handle on it like we did the last one at long leads.  This may not even show itself until inside 36 hours.  We aren't in a great spot but the game isnt over either.  I am becoming more and more convinced that our best shot might be in the day 10-12 period with something coming out of the STJ as the blocking starts to weaken.  Looks like a pretty good cold shot coming behind all this, get something to attack that as the flow starts to lift north.  That is a more money setup for us. 

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I can't think of an example of a big score for the mid-atlantic with three waves stacked up so closely without much spacing.  I would love to see an anaolog that illustrates how we can score in this currently progged upper air setup.  There sure is a lot of energy out there that could come together for us, but I suspect if the first wave drags the baroclinic zone out to sea, there isn't much left to work with on waves 2 and 3. May have to just sit back and enjoy the single digit pixie dust showers that come through with the PV. 

Well if all these waves stay spaced like the models show right now and run interference (none taking over) then yea we wont score.  The problem is that assumes the models are correct at this time.  There are ways this could work out.  Get more spacing, or get one of these to really be stronger then progged and to become dominant and take over.  One of the reasons the models missed Jan 2000 so badly was they were focusing on the wrong vorts in the trough, splitting all the energy.  Just have to hope as we get closer either the lead wave or the northern branch become more dominant.

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This one was always a long shot for us.  Miller B and complicated/tricky scenarios rarely work out.  Maybe we have a surprise or two up our sleeve and I wouldn't totally bail, but I wouldn't be to optimistic on this one.

It' still not over,  I doubt we know for sure what we'll get until were 772 hours or so from the event.  A compromise between the GFS and Euro would put us in the central VA precip max that is on the new Euro. 

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Well if all these waves stay spaced like the models show right now and run interference (none taking over) then yea we wont score.  The problem is that assumes the models are correct at this time.  There are ways this could work out.  Get more spacing, or get one of these to really be stronger then progged and to become dominant and take over.  One of the reasons the models missed Jan 2000 so badly was they were focusing on the wrong vorts in the trough, splitting all the energy.  Just have to hope as we get closer either the lead wave or the northern branch become more dominant.

Does the upper air pattern resemble January, 2000 in any way?

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Well if all these waves stay spaced like the models show right now and run interference (none taking over) then yea we wont score.  The problem is that assumes the models are correct at this time.  There are ways this could work out.  Get more spacing, or get one of these to really be stronger then progged and to become dominant and take over.  One of the reasons the models missed Jan 2000 so badly was they were focusing on the wrong vorts in the trough, splitting all the energy.  Just have to hope as we get closer either the lead wave or the northern branch become more dominant.

The anafrontal thing has been creeping back west now each run (Ukie hits us pretty decent with qpf....temps, iffy.) Maybe the first storm trends back N&W as well. Seems like that's been the readjustment tendency of late.

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Somebody educate me here.

Is there any way that the second piece of energy starts to interact with the first (the closed low in the se)? And if so, would it tend to hold it back and cause that first storm to come up the coast?

This is all very confusing and interesting at the same time. The gefs have several solutions that would bring a light snow event to my area. I think there's plenty of reason to stay interested. The Friday thing I think my area has no hope for.

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Does the upper air pattern resemble January, 2000 in any way?

I doubt its a perfect match.  I was a meterology major at PSU Hazleton at that time and I remember leading up to that doing model analysis sessions with the resident meterologist and thinking "darn how is nothing going to come from this trough"  It was similar in that we had a really nice deep trough that the models were swinging through harmlessly because there were multiple vorts spaced close together and they werent amplifying any of them enough.  I think there were 3 or 4 total.  Then of course boom the one in front goes nuts, then a few days later the trailer gave us a decent storm the night of the super bowl as well.  I do remember the day before though asking the guy (cant remember his name, the year before it was Jon Neese but he left for greener pastures) what the odds were the models were just missing this and that cutoff over NC would phase and come up and he said flat out no chance at that range, the models wouldnt all miss it that badly that close.  Then of course the rest is history. 

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Somebody educate me here.

Is there any way that the second piece of energy starts to interact with the first (the closed low in the se)? And if so, would it tend to hold it back and cause that first storm to come up the coast?

This is all very confusing and interesting at the same time. The gefs have several solutions that would bring a light snow event to my area. I think there's plenty of reason to stay interested. The Friday thing I think my area has no hope for.

Its not so much that it could "pull it in" as that if you get interaction/phasing with the northern branch trough digging in behind you could end up with a secondary system taking over.  If that is the case usually both systems die out and transfer their energy to somewhere in between where the best support is for a new low to take over.  That is what a few runs have shown happening.  The other option is to simply get the stj system to amplify more on its own and ride up in front of the trough, I believe the first storm in 1987 was similar to that setup. 

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Read where the Canadian Ensembles ticked NW and has the Sunday/Monday system climbing the coast a bit.  Not sure how far north though.  

They did but not enough to help us, but they imply NCY to Boston might have their best shot from that lead wave.  GGEM ens mean actually looks a lot like the op euro in how it evolves...lead wave comes up but too far east for us then the second wave gets totally squashed. 

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terrible boring and dry Euro run in February Nino

who cares the euro has been less then money this year and lately is jumping all over the place very run.  It just shifted that STJ system early next week about 200 miles and 15mb in one run.  I am sure in 12 hours you will have a new solution to cry about. 

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120ish could be a nice wedgefest if this was April in a La Nina and it wasn't morning. Trough is so big and flat at the base when things start to cook. 1st wave might be a better hope... it's kinda sorta like Jan 2011 if you are slightly drunk and squint.

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It' still not over,  I doubt we know for sure what we'll get until were 772 hours or so from the event.  A compromise between the GFS and Euro would put us in the central VA precip max that is on the new Euro. 

Oh I agree, it's not totally bleak, and like Mitch said..the comforting thing is the next runs will have something different for sure.

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