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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Looks like EURO is bombing the 1st low as well... down to 994mb at 102

That may not be a good thing, if it only gets "close" but is still a miss it would simply interfere with the ability of the second system to really get going by not leaving enough space behind it.  Still too many moving parts to really worry about any one solution yet.  I agree with Bob that our area is in a spot that typically finds a way to fail in these complicated setups but on the other hand more amped has been a trend lately in the short term so maybe one of these vorts goes nuts when we get closer. 

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Euro takes  the first low off the SC coast. I'm hoping that helps with trough #2.

 

Yes, but it does some explosive deepening on Weatherbell

 

Southern wave is doing nothing other than getting in the way this run. 

 

I think the EURO deepens the first system way too fast and makes this run kind of meh

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looks to me that the euro puts more into that stj system and brings it up and that squashes the second low.  First low ends up hitting eastern New England pretty good, after they get it pretty good from the wave tomorrow night also.  That points out how crazy looking at this range is though, the models are now trending towards a pretty decent event for coastal NJ up through eastern New England from a system that was way OTS just 24 hours ago.  The models are all over the place with which vorts to key on and how they interact with each other.  Something could pop in the short range in this setup, but I would rather there was less interference going on between all these systems.  Risk that none of them can really get their act together enough for us if they all split the energy between them. 

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This euro run is the perfect example of how we could get screwed (as in absolutely no snow) from a beautiful trough.  If the first system really bombs out but stays east of us, it would do nothing but supress the northern stream vort that dives in with the trough behind it.  The split the difference option.  The two options we can score are to get that first wave to scram east and leave enough space behind to allow the trough to really dig and amplify.  Definite trend that the runs with a weaker STJ wave have a better outcome from the northern branch system.  Other option is to get the NAVGEM idea with the stj system really going nuts and coming up.  I would say that seems less likely but given trends this year and the time range we are talking about I wouldn't rule that out either.  Unfortunately gun to my head I would probably favor the in between screw us over solution right now. 

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I raise my white flag with 12z. I totally assumed the euro would go north with the transfer based on the NS position. Of course it develops over NC and OBX instead. Don't know what to think. At all. 

I can't think of an example of a big score for the mid-atlantic with three waves stacked up so closely without much spacing.  I would love to see an anaolog that illustrates how we can score in this currently progged upper air setup.  There sure is a lot of energy out there that could come together for us, but I suspect if the first wave drags the baroclinic zone out to sea, there isn't much left to work with on waves 2 and 3. May have to just sit back and enjoy the single digit pixie dust showers that come through with the PV. 

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Southern wave is doing nothing other than getting in the way this run. 

Yep,  this pattern there are so many ways to get screwed.  The one ray of hope is there are so many impulses in the northern stream the exact evolution is likely to be different than forecast by any of the operational models. The bad news is, most solutions give us only light precipitation because the first outerbanks low is too close and there are too many impulses to allow any onne of them to really jazz up a low close enough to the coast to hit us like last night's Euro did.    

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