yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro brings snowtv all the way to dc friday morning. Couple inches eastern shore. heh. Few of the 09z SREF plumes show up with decent snow ETA: Especially MBN2/MBN3/MBP4/ARP1, all 4 show 2"+... making the mean 1.11" at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 What is going on on teh Euro! Seeing snow down in SC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Looks like EURO is bombing the 1st low as well... down to 994mb at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Go Navy Beat Army? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Wait, what the hell EURO at 108... Weatherbell says its in the 960s at 114? Got to be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro takes the first low off the SC coast. I'm hoping that helps with trough #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Looks like EURO is bombing the 1st low as well... down to 994mb at 102 That may not be a good thing, if it only gets "close" but is still a miss it would simply interfere with the ability of the second system to really get going by not leaving enough space behind it. Still too many moving parts to really worry about any one solution yet. I agree with Bob that our area is in a spot that typically finds a way to fail in these complicated setups but on the other hand more amped has been a trend lately in the short term so maybe one of these vorts goes nuts when we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Southern wave is doing nothing other than getting in the way this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 967 by 114! And then OTS - Windy times ahead from that system. SC gets in on snow as it starts bombing! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Day 5 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro takes the first low off the SC coast. I'm hoping that helps with trough #2. Yes, but it does some explosive deepening on Weatherbell Southern wave is doing nothing other than getting in the way this run. I think the EURO deepens the first system way too fast and makes this run kind of meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 you can see this in the 12z NAM nest as well. Euro brings snowtv all the way to dc friday morning. Couple inches eastern shore. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 slp in central NC at 132 hrs.....pretty decent location and further south than prior runs I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 day 6 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 looks to me that the euro puts more into that stj system and brings it up and that squashes the second low. First low ends up hitting eastern New England pretty good, after they get it pretty good from the wave tomorrow night also. That points out how crazy looking at this range is though, the models are now trending towards a pretty decent event for coastal NJ up through eastern New England from a system that was way OTS just 24 hours ago. The models are all over the place with which vorts to key on and how they interact with each other. Something could pop in the short range in this setup, but I would rather there was less interference going on between all these systems. Risk that none of them can really get their act together enough for us if they all split the energy between them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 day 6 pretty far off shore http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 slp in central NC at 132 hrs.....pretty decent location and further south than prior runs I believe 138 1000mb between ILM and HSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Gonna be fun to follow Again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Yes, but it does some explosive deepening on Weatherbell I think the EURO deepens the first system way too fast and makes this run kind of meh I want to get that bomb up the coast and not have to worry about a follow up Miller B scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 slp in central NC at 132 hrs.....pretty decent location and further south than prior runs I believe does nothing, flow is too suppressive behind the first low that bombs out and is still up off New England so the second one slides east under it and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro brings snowtv all the way to dc friday morning. Couple inches eastern shore. heh. 12z RGEM had the same look. 12z GFS had it but a bit further east. Trending! Where is R94? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 I raise my white flag with 12z. I totally assumed the euro would go north with the transfer based on the NS position. Of course it develops over NC and OBX instead. Don't know what to think. At all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 day 6 pretty far off shore http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Its a miss, but there is some QPF left back in C VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Gonna be fun to follow Again I rather follow a sure thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Guess we should focus on the "Friday event" first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Bob, I agree. I think the only thing we can say at this point is, NE is the place to be over the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Well crud! The first system is a freaking monster! The second is blooming way late (understandably) and cannot do what we want.. Pattern cruddy = cruddy outcome.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 This euro run is the perfect example of how we could get screwed (as in absolutely no snow) from a beautiful trough. If the first system really bombs out but stays east of us, it would do nothing but supress the northern stream vort that dives in with the trough behind it. The split the difference option. The two options we can score are to get that first wave to scram east and leave enough space behind to allow the trough to really dig and amplify. Definite trend that the runs with a weaker STJ wave have a better outcome from the northern branch system. Other option is to get the NAVGEM idea with the stj system really going nuts and coming up. I would say that seems less likely but given trends this year and the time range we are talking about I wouldn't rule that out either. Unfortunately gun to my head I would probably favor the in between screw us over solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I raise my white flag with 12z. I totally assumed the euro would go north with the transfer based on the NS position. Of course it develops over NC and OBX instead. Don't know what to think. At all. I can't think of an example of a big score for the mid-atlantic with three waves stacked up so closely without much spacing. I would love to see an anaolog that illustrates how we can score in this currently progged upper air setup. There sure is a lot of energy out there that could come together for us, but I suspect if the first wave drags the baroclinic zone out to sea, there isn't much left to work with on waves 2 and 3. May have to just sit back and enjoy the single digit pixie dust showers that come through with the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Southern wave is doing nothing other than getting in the way this run. Yep, this pattern there are so many ways to get screwed. The one ray of hope is there are so many impulses in the northern stream the exact evolution is likely to be different than forecast by any of the operational models. The bad news is, most solutions give us only light precipitation because the first outerbanks low is too close and there are too many impulses to allow any onne of them to really jazz up a low close enough to the coast to hit us like last night's Euro did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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