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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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It is definitely deeper at h5.  Problem for me is, I don't know if that's good or bad.  I don't even know which wave, which storm we are rooting for.

 

A cutoff southern low without phasing stays pretty compact and it  looks like we can probably write that one off at this point. Root for the big dig and clean transfer + neg tilt. 

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Basically, this run has that first coastal low hitting NC and then moves out to sea.  Temperatures don't look cold enough.  Then the trough builds in.  You have this low that basically sits over the Great Lakes.  Arctic air just pours in.  Not seeing that nice coastal development so far on this run.  

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Basically, this run has that first coastal low hitting NC and then moves out to sea.  Temperatures don't look cold enough.  Then the trough builds in.  You have this low that basically sits over the Great Lakes.  Arctic air just pours in.  Not seeing that nice coastal development so far on this run.  

Pretty much what the GFS does through 144... is that a piece of the PV moving in?

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A cutoff southern low without phasing stays pretty compact and it looks like we can probably write that one off at this point. Root for the big dig and clean transfer + neg tilt.

I wouldn't write anything off completely yet but I agree the northern stream digging in is a better bet here. That first wave if it gets close would just mess everything up. Something similar happened last year. We had a perfect setup early feb for a big storm but a frontrunner wave ahead of the trough amped up too much. It did give our area 3-5" I think but it screwed up what could of been a hecs right behind it. Most were too happy cekebrating the 3-5 to notice.
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I wouldn't write anything off completely yet but I agree the northern stream digging in is a better bet here. That first wave if it gets close would just mess everything up. Something similar happened last year. We had a perfect setup early feb for a big storm but a frontrunner wave ahead of the trough amped up too much. It did give our area 3-5" I think but it screwed up what could of been a hecs right behind it. Most were too happy cekebrating the 3-5 to notice.

 

We noticed.  You mentioned it every single post....

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We noticed. You mentioned it every single post....

I was very frustrated. People were actually rooting on that lead wave when it was trending north. I remember myself,HM, and a few others trying to say the front wave was very limited in potential outrunning the real upper level support. The vort behind it had hecs potential but would get squashed if the lead vort amped. But for some reason the prevailing attitude was a sure thing 3-5" day 1-2 was better then a shot at a hecs day 3-4. I'm not sure if people thought it was a long shot but I really really felt that a big storm was a good bet if that lead vort had not been there. None of us, except maybe ji, can control the weather so it's not like it made any difference I was just rooting for a very different outcome then everyone else. Last I'll say about that.
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For better or worse models will not get the details at the surface right this far out in this type of setup. Just keep rooting for that trough to dig more and see what happens inside 48 hours.

GFS is wrong, imho, with not digging the trough. Euro will show another bomb this run. Whether we're under it will be the question, of course. Total wag, but don't be surprised if in the next few days we aren't worried about suppression.

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