WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Wow. We can't get a storm from that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 It is definitely deeper at h5. Problem for me is, I don't know if that's good or bad. I don't even know which wave, which storm we are rooting for. A cutoff southern low without phasing stays pretty compact and it looks like we can probably write that one off at this point. Root for the big dig and clean transfer + neg tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Wow. We can't get a storm from that? You want the 2nd wave to dig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 You want the 2nd wave to dig It looks only marginally deeper. Is it remotely possible that the second wave catches and phases with the first or are they just too far apart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GFS bombs the first storm and captures OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 This gfs solution has to be close to something good. Somebody confirm that for me. I can't be that blind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Most of the time there is a 992mb low over the UP of Michigan, we get a gigantic snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 This gfs solution has to be close to something good. Somebody confirm that for me. I can't be that blind. Its not digging enough for us...storm starts transferring at our lat...and is sort of disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Basically, this run has that first coastal low hitting NC and then moves out to sea. Temperatures don't look cold enough. Then the trough builds in. You have this low that basically sits over the Great Lakes. Arctic air just pours in. Not seeing that nice coastal development so far on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Most of the time there is a 992mb low over the UP of Michigan, we get a gigantic snowstorm. Yeah, this is just not ideal without a farther dig south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Basically, this run has that first coastal low hitting NC and then moves out to sea. Temperatures don't look cold enough. Then the trough builds in. You have this low that basically sits over the Great Lakes. Arctic air just pours in. Not seeing that nice coastal development so far on this run. Pretty much what the GFS does through 144... is that a piece of the PV moving in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Most of the time there is a 992mb low over the UP of Michigan, we get a gigantic snowstorm. Is a gigantic snowstorm what we are looking for? I just need to be clear on what constitutes something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It snows pretty good in SE PA at 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 A cutoff southern low without phasing stays pretty compact and it looks like we can probably write that one off at this point. Root for the big dig and clean transfer + neg tilt. I wouldn't write anything off completely yet but I agree the northern stream digging in is a better bet here. That first wave if it gets close would just mess everything up. Something similar happened last year. We had a perfect setup early feb for a big storm but a frontrunner wave ahead of the trough amped up too much. It did give our area 3-5" I think but it screwed up what could of been a hecs right behind it. Most were too happy cekebrating the 3-5 to notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Is a gigantic snowstorm what we are looking for? I just need to be clear on what constitutes something good. yes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Pretty much what the GFS does through 144... is that a piece of the PV moving in? I would say, it does. 500mb map at 159 hour, you can see it centered over Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I wouldn't write anything off completely yet but I agree the northern stream digging in is a better bet here. That first wave if it gets close would just mess everything up. Something similar happened last year. We had a perfect setup early feb for a big storm but a frontrunner wave ahead of the trough amped up too much. It did give our area 3-5" I think but it screwed up what could of been a hecs right behind it. Most were too happy cekebrating the 3-5 to notice. We noticed. You mentioned it every single post.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 snow thru 168 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 171 hrs. 5H this looks fun http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusupper.php?run=2016020312&var=HGT&lev=500mb&hour=171 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 That piece of the PV sits in the Ohio Valley for quite a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It's close enough I'm not discouraged yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 171 hrs. 5H this looks fun http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusupper.php?run=2016020312&var=HGT&lev=500mb&hour=171 -10 C 850s into the Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 -10 C 850s into the Gulf of Mexico. 9 hours later, barely moved http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusupper.php?run=2016020312&var=HGT&lev=500mb&hour=180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 -10 C 850s into the Gulf of Mexico. Day after tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I know we're looking for gigantic but verbatim it's not a disaster for us. Just want to stay in the game. I think eventually we do see further digging. 582dm heights over Vancouver can't be that common in early February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 We noticed. You mentioned it every single post....I was very frustrated. People were actually rooting on that lead wave when it was trending north. I remember myself,HM, and a few others trying to say the front wave was very limited in potential outrunning the real upper level support. The vort behind it had hecs potential but would get squashed if the lead vort amped. But for some reason the prevailing attitude was a sure thing 3-5" day 1-2 was better then a shot at a hecs day 3-4. I'm not sure if people thought it was a long shot but I really really felt that a big storm was a good bet if that lead vort had not been there. None of us, except maybe ji, can control the weather so it's not like it made any difference I was just rooting for a very different outcome then everyone else. Last I'll say about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 For better or worse models will not get the details at the surface right this far out in this type of setup. Just keep rooting for that trough to dig more and see what happens inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 For better or worse models will not get the details at the surface right this far out in this type of setup. Just keep rooting for that trough to dig more and see what happens inside 48 hours. GFS is wrong, imho, with not digging the trough. Euro will show another bomb this run. Whether we're under it will be the question, of course. Total wag, but don't be surprised if in the next few days we aren't worried about suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 yes.... OK then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 For better or worse models will not get the details at the surface right this far out in this type of setup. Just keep rooting for that trough to dig more and see what happens inside 48 hours. Great point. That pretty much sums up things. Just wait and see for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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