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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Not sure if you have access to Euro ensembles but if you do take a look day 6 to 7. Not going to count them but I would say the majority have solutions that with just some minor tweaking, if that, are decent to major hits. And this isn't even considering the possibility that the Euro ensemble members follow the lead of the op where surface reflections are somewhat underplayed at range.

I do have access but didn't look at them. At this point, I just focus on the mean.
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And yet, the mean snowfall at dca and bwi dropped from 4.5" at 12z to 2.5". Probably more all or nothings with nothings prevailing vs. more numerous moderate events on the 12z.

 

I do have access but didn't look at them. At this point, I just focus on the mean.

 

Fair enough. Even with multitude of solutions being thrown out the one common theme that is beginning to emerge with the Euro is that it wants to place a low somewhere in the south or off the southeast coast and then run it up the coast and it doesn't care how it gets there. And looking at the 500 means and the anomalies I think they argue for that. So I would not be surprised when the Euro starts keying on one solution and gets away from the helter-skelter look that we see a fairly dramatic increase on the snowfall means for that period. Of course a Miller B screw job is still on the board so who knows.

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So is the Euro bringing in the storm faster than the GFS?

I don't know about faster, the whole evolution is different. Gfs keys way more on the stj vort and that delays the low that develops in response to the upper level support with the trough digging in. Any delay is bad for us since the trough continues to progress so a delay means things don't develop until northeast of us. The euro really races that stj system off the field and this has a quicker secondary development and bombs it out cleanly which is what we need. Really complicated setup. Something in between seems the best bet at this time which might mean the really big event is north of us but we might do ok.
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0z Euro Para has 5-8" west to east from  the western DC burbs, through DC over to central/southern DE. Quite a gradient with an inch or 2 for N MD and DE. This will be interesting to watch over the coming days. Models seem to have a general idea, but very much lacking in the details at this point.

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06z GFS para is meh

 

ETA: Maybe not... 144-150 looks interesting QPF wise

LOL........you guys have some pretty high standards.  It spits out nearly a 1/2' precip in temps cold enough for snow.  

 

What is it?  2 feet or bust nowadays?

 

HAHA........didn't see your edit.

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Speaking of which, just how many cups of coffee does that guy need?

Lol. I get up at 5pm almost every day but I need to get my AM work done before messing around with seriously distracting snow stuff.

I don't have much to add anyways. Seems like some sort of redeveloper is getting some continuity. And this time there seems to be a trend with the trough digging far enough south to keep us in the game.

6z para gfs is nice on the vort panels. Close to a big storm solution. If the trend with the big trough keeps going south and goes negative we could have a major coastal with mixing always a risk.

EPS is divided. Mean redevelpemt is mouth of bay latitude. Drop that 100 miles south and we could get a good ccb thump.

Like Mitch said. This one has boom or bust written all over it for our area. That statement may apply at half the lead time we're at now.

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Lol. I get up at 5pm almost every day but I need to get my AM work done before messing around with seriously distracting snow stuff.

I don't have much to add anyways. Seems like some sort of redeveloper is getting some continuity. And this time there seems to be a trend with the trough digging far enough south to keep us in the game.

6z para gfs is nice on the vort panels. Close to a big storm solution. If the trend with the big trough keeps going south and goes negative we could have a major coastal with mixing always a risk.

EPS is divided. Mean redevelpemt is mouth of bay latitude. Drop that 100 miles south and we could get a good ccb thump.

Like Mitch said. This one has boom or bust written all over it for our area. That statement may apply at half the lead time we're at now.

I'm convinced the trough will trend south with time as I was suggesting yesterday. Ukie is really deep at 144 hrs.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

 

EDIT: Looking closely at the Ukie you can see the Atlantic is really getting blocked up. That's going to help us, and we'll need all the help we can get on this one.

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I'm convinced the trough will trend south with time as I was suggesting yesterday. Ukie is really deep at 144 hrs.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

 

EDIT: Looking closely at the Ukie you can see the Atlantic is really getting blocked up. That's going to help us, and we'll need all the help we can get on this one.

 

Nice panel...

 

Para euro has some stark differences to the op. The northern low is less dominant and further south (OH/WV border) and redevelopment happens just south of HSE but tracks right to Cape Cod from there. Main low center is too far east for us. The only reason we get decent snow is some sort of inv trough and then some leftovers from the upper level energy. If the trough was a little neg during redevelopment it would tuck closer to the coast as it makes the trip north. 

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On a related but maybe not that relevant to anything in the next week, the QBO has peaked (Westerly, or + number on the chart) and is now falling (Easterly, moving toward a - number on the chart.) A falling QBO during the winter is generally not a bad thing, and some of our prolific winters had the QBO dropping. But it may be too little, too late, for this year. We'll see.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

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