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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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In a way, that first vort down south actually hurts us as it kind of delays the development of the second low. I mean that shortwave is a beast, but the low still forms a bit too late for us. 

It saves an apps runner.  If there was a high off the east coast,  and a negative tilt that early there'd be a raging SE wind.

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There is no way we should be skunked with that trough...but we are.

I think it was Ji who said we don't do complicated all that well today.. It's a fun setup. Interesting how things are more full on a two low solution. Big trough just drops in too far east.
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Looks like a miss on the Euro too... based off of free maps...

 

Edit: that was up to hr 144 based on the fact that we had a 1006 mb  primary near michigan...

 

Edit 2: Oh wow hr 168  984 mb coastal right over Ocean city and based on the low presentation, seems to be a capture and occluding... Once again, based off of 24 hr Tropical tidbit maps FWIW

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Euro ensembles took a step back on mean snowfall for the period for the DC/Balt corridor. Showing roughly a 3 to 4 range now vs. a 4 to 5 at 12Z. The 4 day period I have liked centered around the 8th now stayed the same with 2 inches picked up during that period. Still like the look on the 500's and the anomalies being shown though recent runs are coming in quicker on the progression and would argue that my window of opportunity should probably be more so centered on the 7th as opposed to the 8th.

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When I initially looked at the general low locations from day 6 to 7 on the Euro ensemble means it looked like the typical Miller B where 9 out of 10 times we may luck into pity flakes for our local which was always an option in my mind. But after just looking over the individual ensemble members all I can say is WOW, that is not the case what so ever. Though there are some members that show the typical Miller B screw job they are in the minority. Many of the solutions are actually throwing out southern stream lows, lows forming off the south east coast, lows forming from energy riding down the backside of the trough, more southerly Miller B transfers as well as other solutions that put us in the game. There are many solutions being put forward that are close to being a SEC if not a MEC.  

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When I initially looked at the general low locations from day 6 to 7 on the Euro ensemble means it looked like the typical Miller B where 9 out of 10 times we may luck into pity flakes for our local which was always an option in my mind. But after just looking over the individual ensemble members all I can say is WOW, that is not the case what so ever. Though there are some members that show the typical Miller B screw job they are in the minority. Many of the solutions are actually throwing out southern stream lows, lows forming off the south east coast, lows forming from energy riding down the backside of the trough, more southerly Miller B transfers as well as other solutions that put us in the game. There are many solutions being put forward that are close to being a SEC if not a MEC.

And yet, the mean snowfall at dca and bwi dropped from 4.5" at 12z to 2.5". Probably more all or nothings with nothings prevailing vs. more numerous moderate events on the 12z.
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And yet, the mean snowfall at dca and bwi dropped from 4.5" at 12z to 2.5". Probably more all or nothings with nothings prevailing vs. more numerous moderate events on the 12z.

 

Not sure if you have access to Euro ensembles but if you do take a look day 6 to 7. Not going to count them but I would say the majority have solutions that with just some minor tweaking, if that, are decent to major hits. And this isn't even considering the possibility that the Euro ensemble members follow the lead of the op where surface reflections are somewhat underplayed at range. 

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