yoda Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The 114-120 panels had me believing it was gonna come further north than 12z. Still seems close enough to keep an eye on, although if we did get a good track it still might be rain for the cities. Def close enough to keep an eye on IMO... esp with that H in Quebec hanging back long enough if we can get it to speed up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The 114-120 panels had me believing it was gonna come further north than 12z. Still seems close enough to keep an eye on, although if we did get a good track it still might be rain for the cities. This setup looks very similar to 1/25/00. It's got a lot of moving parts that are all changing every run. If any model is within 50 miles 48hrs out it will mark a big improvement in the last 16 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Through 126, GEFS all over the place with MSLP as expected... but a few more are decent compared to the 12z run IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Which storm is the GEFS keying in on? The southern stream system or the hybrid Miller B later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Para euro is similar to the op with the miller b idea but further east with the coastal. Only hits eastern CT/LI. Boston gets hit pretty good. Also has the same micro band in central VA. It's a skip for us though. 18z GEFS kinda stinks all the way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Para euro is similar to the op with the miller b idea but further east with the coastal. Only hits eastern CT/LI. Boston gets hit pretty good. Also has the same micro band in central VA. It's a skip for us though. 18z GEFS kinda stinks all the way around. Yeah, didn't see much on the Gfs ens to get excited about. I have to say this seems like a crazy situation for the next 7-10. I don't have access to as much info as you, but it seems there are widely varying solutions across the models. BTW, any notion on why the para gfs hasn't updated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Yeah, didn't see much on the Gfs ens to get excited about. I have to say this seems like a crazy situation for the next 7-10. I don't have access to as much info as you, but it seems there are widely varying solutions across the models. BTW, any notion on why the para gfs hasn't updated? Crazy indeed. Enthusiasm is a short-lived thing around here. I wonder what the 0z runs have in store for us. I see that the 18z GFS brings back the idea it had a few days ago with a storm popping up along the cold front going thru the mid-atlantic tomorrow. Maybe tonights run will show us a coastal on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Analogs say one more try after the biggie and then cold for 3 or 4 days and then seasonable to mild. The models did this with the last one, showed all the scenarios and then zeroed in 5 days and in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Complicated scenarios usually screw us over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 I've seen the euro ensembles jump on a snowy solution similar to the op at this range. And then if the op loses it so do the ensembles. If we can string together another 3-4 euro ens runs there is reason to be cautiously optimistic. I'm pretty skeptical of scoring on a same latitude jump to the coast. We have a long history here at finding a way to fail at those. However, I'm feeling pretty good at the next 2 weeks as a whole. I would say the odds favor another shot at something in the d10 - 15 range. We have a legit block on ens guidance. It doesn't hold for long on the means but just having a drop and rise of the ao/nao keeps things interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Crazy indeed. Enthusiasm is a short-lived thing around here. I wonder what the 0z runs have in store for us. I see that the 18z GFS brings back the idea it had a few days ago with a storm popping up along the cold front going thru the mid-atlantic tomorrow. Maybe tonights run will show us a coastal on Friday.Per 21z srefs, this much falls after -4C 850 temp line reaches dca/bwi. Surface temps look to be around 33-35, but that's a guestimate. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=081ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_081_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160202+21+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Per 21z srefs, this much falls after -4C 850 temp line reaches dca/bwi. Surface temps look to be around 33-35, but that's a guestimate. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=081ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_081_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160202+21+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Isn't that about 2-4 in your neck of the woods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Isn't that about 2-4 in your neck of the woods?Nah, it's between .1-.25". With temps above freezing, I can't believe we'd see more than an inch. Assuming, of course, it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Per 21z srefs, this much falls after -4C 850 temp line reaches dca/bwi. Surface temps look to be around 33-35, but that's a guestimate. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=081ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_081_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160202+21+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model That is a huge jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Nah, it's between .1-.25". With temps above freezing, I can't believe we'd see more than an inch. Assuming, of course, it's correct.I bet it trends to our favor. Just a feeling. I like it when models revert back to a scenario they had already depicted days earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GFS para must be cooking up something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Just got home and looked @ the data...pretty awesome trends today. Compared to yesterday when I was about to give up hope...Really excited for 00z runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It looks like the GFS, and the models in general, are having a tough time with this setup because of that vort down south. They don't know if they want to phase it with the energy diving down from Canada or what. Looking @ the EURO & some of the ensemble members that crush us, we want that southern vort to get out of the picture as fast a possible, and let that second wave just dig as deep as possible (kind of like the JMA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I imagine we'll see the GFS trend towards the other models tonight. The low it has off NE @ 144 will trend weaker and it will (hopefully) put all its eggs in the shortwave after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It looks like the GFS, and the models in general, are having a tough time with this setup because of that vort down south. They don't know if they want to phase it with the energy diving down from Canada or what. Looking @ the EURO & some of the ensemble members that crush us, we want that southern vort to get out of the picture as fast a possible, and let that second wave just dig as deep as possible (kind of like the JMA) JMA drops around .4" qpf around dca/bwi and .5-.6 in your back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Interesting comment I read about the lwx threat graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Interesting comment I read about the lwx threat graphics. Is it a secret? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I think we need to root for the 1st wave being as weak as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 So, we're gonna pretend not to notice the NAM h5 map at 84 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 So, we're gonna pretend not to notice the NAM h5 map at 84 hours? Of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 So, we're gonna pretend not to notice the NAM h5 map at 84 hours?Lol. I've spent the last 5 minutes comparing it to various gfs runs. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The 00z NAM really strong with that initial vort....interesting....This is probably the most confused I've been with the medium/LR in a long time. I have no idea what to root for to get a snowstorm. Really interesting time period. Probably insane for professional mets. right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Of course. I mean, I'm good with that. It is the NAM after all. But if that were any other model at 84 hours, I'd be interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I mean, I'm good with that. It is the NAM after all. But if that were any other model at 84 hours, I'd be interested I think we need to slow it down a bit, but I'm totally confused at this point. I just need somebody to tell me when it's gonna snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The 00z NAM really strong with that initial vort....interesting....This is probably the most confused I've been with the medium/LR in a long time. I have no idea what to root for to get a snowstorm. Really interesting time period. Probably insane for professional mets. right now. Haha, just said the same thing. I don't even know what I'm looking for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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