H2O Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Enough of the jibber jabber. Post snow maps of the most extreme model run so we can all say this is the one that will come true because we want it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 We may be backing into something special. Dead seriousThe vort with the bliz took a trip into the deep south, so who knows. I would be nice, though, to get a little consistency for a few runs before we really know what the legit options are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 We're due #snowtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Euro ens definitely favor a deeper dig of h5 and miller b type evolution compared to the 0z run. Seems like decent support for the op on the means. Waiting for ind member stuff to see where we stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Seems like both the euro and the GFS in 12z wiggled a bit NW with the anafront in 60-70 hours...I say this because many of the members of SREF's last run are tossing in some snow in the northern neck/middle penn of VA toward the end of the run. Some nice juicy plumes tossed in there on the eastern shore. DCA is at 0.15" of snow FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Oh yeah, time to fasten some seat belts. Lots of good hits in there but plenty of heart breakers too. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I'm sticking to my call that we get a good period late feb or March where the mjo Pna and blocking all line up but the next 10 days are starting to get my attention a bit more. Trends definitely put us in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 I'm sticking to my call that we get a good period late feb or March where the mjo Pna and blocking all line up but the next 10 days are starting to get my attention a bit more. Trends definitely put us in play. There is a legit -NAO D10-11 on the EPS. PV squished into SE Canada. Could be cold and dry but nothing is cutting until that shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Oh yeah, time to fasten some seat belts. Lots of good hits in there but plenty of heart breakers too. Good times. EPS is indeed... I am strapped in and scared I hate rollercoasters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I just can't get excited about a miller b esp at this range. Looks like about 25% of members are interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 LWX has Code Yellow for Sun night-Mon and Mon Night-Tues on their Winter Storm Threat Maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Fwiw the jma ggem ecmwf all have a very similar evolution. Gfs is the outlier. Jma ggem don't have the weird fujiwara type qpf distribution thing but that's noise at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 What a weenie run of the EPS. The miller b is only the beginning. Heh, we have a decent atlantic for a time and in the game on the means d8-15 in general. DCA mean snowfall is 4.5" for the period. Man, 10k is really going to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 What a weenie run of the EPS. The miller b is only the beginning. Heh, we have a decent atlantic for a time and in the game on the means d8-15 in general. DCA mean snowfall is 4.5" for the period. Man, 10k is really going to help. yea I've been peeking at stuff daily and just not feeling it but today got my attention for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I just can't get excited about a miller b esp at this range. Looks like about 25% of members are interesting though. The question is, can it become more? And what I mean by that is related to my last post regarding the bliz. This vortex is really shoved pretty far south and at what point does it become more of a hybrid Miller B should it go much further south a spawn a storm say off NC or VA. I don't know, but I could see that happening, as well as seeing it fizzle. Anyway, something to keep an eye on for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 What a weenie run of the EPS. The miller b is only the beginning. Heh, we have a decent atlantic for a time and in the game on the means d8-15 in general. DCA mean snowfall is 4.5" for the period. Man, 10k is really going to help. I'm pulling for you. Of course, it would be a real biatch if that 4.5" came in multiple storms, with none equal to or greater than 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I just can't get excited about a miller b esp at this range. Looks like about 25% of members are interesting though.It's definiteky more problematic then the pure miller a gulf low we love but rarely happens but it's also not the pure northern stream vort miller b that is almost always a screw job for us either. This has some southern stream interaction and is a weird hybrid of sorts the way it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 There is a legit -NAO D10-11 on the EPS. PV squished into SE Canada. Could be cold and dry but nothing is cutting until that shifts. I like the weird hybrid thing day 7 but I'm also thinking there might be something behind the cold shot day 9-11 also. Get something to come across as the nao relaxes. Why does that sound familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 The question is, can it become more? And what I mean by that is related to my last post regarding the bliz. This vortex is really shoved pretty far south and at what point does it become more of a hybrid Miller B should it go much further south a spawn a storm say off NC or VA. I don't know, but I could see that happening, as well as seeing it fizzle. Anyway, something to keep an eye on for sure. It was a pretty big jump in general from 0z. Right now, mean slp and clustering is still a bit too far north for our liking. Maybe not for NE MD but down my way I don't like seeing rapid deepening beginning right off of OC. There is a cluster of more southern lows but for now it looks like a classic MA screwing imo. But at least we starting to see some consensus FINALLY. Now we just root for the trough to dig for gulf oil. Kinda simplifies things in general terms even though we'll see a lot of bouncing around for better or for worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 What a weenie run of the EPS. The miller b is only the beginning. Heh, we have a decent atlantic for a time and in the game on the means d8-15 in general. DCA mean snowfall is 4.5" for the period. Man, 10k is really going to help. Wow. That sounds like quite a big jump from even just yesterday? Hopefully these latest trends are good. It's certainly encouraging to see something more favorable in the ensembles at least. (ETA: Heh...I see that Bob ninja'd an answer to my question in response to Mitch just above!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 I like the weird hybrid thing day 7 but I'm also thinking there might be something behind the cold shot day 9-11 also. Get something to come across as the nao relaxes. Why does that sound familiar. Take a look at the low location panels d13-14. Unusual grouping for such a long leads. Nice sprawling hp too. That's a miller A setup. Too bad it's almost 2 weeks away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 It's definiteky more problematic then the pure miller a gulf low we love but rarely happens but it's also not the pure northern stream vort miller b that is almost always a screw job for us either. This has some southern stream interaction and is a weird hybrid of sorts the way it evolves. I've been fairly on board 10th and beyond for a while, though that's of course the early end of what I've expected would be a better look. I have generally disregarded the bad model solutions at range right or wrong. I'd still not hedge too strongly on getting a bunch from this kind of setup but there's of course plenty of time. Last night I mentioned a Miller B New England clobbering as a main possibility from the big trough so I'm not too surprised to see these solutions today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I've been fairly on board 10th and beyond for a while, though that's of course the early end of what I've expected would be a better look. I have generally disregarded the bad model solutions at range right or wrong. I'd still not hedge too strongly on getting a bunch from this kind of setup but there's of course plenty of time. Last night I mentioned a Miller B New England clobbering as a main possibility from the big trough so I'm not too surprised to see these solutions today. I thik the miller B new england idea is still the bext bet though with such a set up, a clipper diving south of us is also possible thoughfor that usually you want the ridge out west to be farther east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Anybody notice that the Euro Control is noticeably deeper with the trough than the EPS? When does the Para come out again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 We may be backing into something special. Dead serious . I see what you did there. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 From afternoon LWX HWO: THERE IS A SLIGHT THREAT OF A WINTER STORM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OFNEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS...PARTICULARLY IFTHE THREAT INCREASES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I thik the miller B new england idea is still the bext bet though with such a set up, a clipper diving south of us is also possible thoughfor that usually you want the ridge out west to be farther east Yeah makes sense. We are money lately with snow is one thing. but there are plenty of others that go against. Torn, my b-day.. though I also have an outpatient procedure on Monday I'd like to not have to reschedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 GFS and euro very different with the 50/50 low, Euro hangs it back much further SW Edit: 18z GFS trended more progressive than 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 GFS and euro very different with the 50/50 low, Euro hangs it back much further SW Edit: 18z GFS trended more progressive than 12z GFS The 114-120 panels had me believing it was gonna come further north than 12z. Still seems close enough to keep an eye on, although if we did get a good track it still might be rain for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Just a tad quicker and boom on the 18z GFS... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.