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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Seems like both the euro and the GFS in 12z wiggled a bit NW with the anafront in 60-70 hours...I say this because many of the members of SREF's last run are tossing in some snow in the northern neck/middle penn of VA toward the end of the run. Some nice juicy plumes tossed in there on the eastern shore. DCA is at 0.15" of snow FWIW. 

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I'm sticking to my call that we get a good period late feb or March where the mjo Pna and blocking all line up but the next 10 days are starting to get my attention a bit more. Trends definitely put us in play.

 

There is a legit -NAO D10-11 on the EPS. PV squished into SE Canada. Could be cold and dry but nothing is cutting until that shifts. 

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What a weenie run of the EPS. The miller b is only the beginning. Heh, we have a decent atlantic for a time and in the game on the means d8-15 in general. DCA mean snowfall is 4.5" for the period. Man, 10k is really going to help.

yea I've been peeking at stuff daily and just not feeling it but today got my attention for sure.
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I just can't get excited about a miller b esp at this range. Looks like about 25% of members are interesting though.

The question is, can it become more? And what I mean by that is related to my last post regarding the bliz. This vortex is really shoved pretty far south and at what point does it become more of a hybrid Miller B should it go much further south a spawn a storm say off NC or VA. I don't know, but I could see that happening, as well as seeing it fizzle. Anyway, something to keep an eye on for sure.

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What a weenie run of the EPS. The miller b is only the beginning. Heh, we have a decent atlantic for a time and in the game on the means d8-15 in general. DCA mean snowfall is 4.5" for the period. Man, 10k is really going to help. 

I'm pulling for you. Of course, it would be a real biatch if that 4.5" came in multiple storms, with none equal to or greater than 2".  :whistle:

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I just can't get excited about a miller b esp at this range. Looks like about 25% of members are interesting though.

It's definiteky more problematic then the pure miller a gulf low we love but rarely happens but it's also not the pure northern stream vort miller b that is almost always a screw job for us either. This has some southern stream interaction and is a weird hybrid of sorts the way it evolves.
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There is a legit -NAO D10-11 on the EPS. PV squished into SE Canada. Could be cold and dry but nothing is cutting until that shifts.

I like the weird hybrid thing day 7 but I'm also thinking there might be something behind the cold shot day 9-11 also. Get something to come across as the nao relaxes. Why does that sound familiar.
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The question is, can it become more? And what I mean by that is related to my last post regarding the bliz. This vortex is really shoved pretty far south and at what point does it become more of a hybrid Miller B should it go much further south a spawn a storm say off NC or VA. I don't know, but I could see that happening, as well as seeing it fizzle. Anyway, something to keep an eye on for sure.

 

It was a pretty big jump in general from 0z. Right now, mean slp and clustering is still a bit too far north for our liking. Maybe not for NE MD but down my way I don't like seeing rapid deepening beginning right off of OC. There is a cluster of more southern lows but for now it looks like a classic MA screwing imo. 

 

But at least we starting to see some consensus FINALLY. Now we just root for the trough to dig for gulf oil. Kinda simplifies things in general terms even though we'll see a lot of bouncing around for better or for worse. 

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What a weenie run of the EPS. The miller b is only the beginning. Heh, we have a decent atlantic for a time and in the game on the means d8-15 in general. DCA mean snowfall is 4.5" for the period. Man, 10k is really going to help. 

 

Wow.  That sounds like quite a big jump from even just yesterday?  Hopefully these latest trends are good.  It's certainly encouraging to see something more favorable in the ensembles at least.

 

(ETA:  Heh...I see that Bob ninja'd an answer to my question in response to Mitch just above!)

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I like the weird hybrid thing day 7 but I'm also thinking there might be something behind the cold shot day 9-11 also. Get something to come across as the nao relaxes. Why does that sound familiar.

 

Take a look at the low location panels d13-14. Unusual grouping for such a long leads. Nice sprawling hp too. That's a miller A setup. Too bad it's almost 2 weeks away :P

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It's definiteky more problematic then the pure miller a gulf low we love but rarely happens but it's also not the pure northern stream vort miller b that is almost always a screw job for us either. This has some southern stream interaction and is a weird hybrid of sorts the way it evolves.

I've been fairly on board 10th and beyond for a while, though that's of course the early end of what I've expected would be a better look. I have generally disregarded the bad model solutions at range right or wrong. I'd still not hedge too strongly on getting a bunch from this kind of setup but there's of course plenty of time. Last night I mentioned a Miller B New England clobbering as a main possibility from the big trough so I'm not too surprised to see these solutions today.

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I've been fairly on board 10th and beyond for a while, though that's of course the early end of what I've expected would be a better look. I have generally disregarded the bad model solutions at range right or wrong. I'd still not hedge too strongly on getting a bunch from this kind of setup but there's of course plenty of time. Last night I mentioned a Miller B New England clobbering as a main possibility from the big trough so I'm not too surprised to see these solutions today.

I thik the miller B new england idea is still the bext bet though with such a set up, a clipper diving south of us is also possible thoughfor that usually you want the ridge out west to be farther east 

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I thik the miller B new england idea is still the bext bet though with such a set up, a clipper diving south of us is also possible thoughfor that usually you want the ridge out west to be farther east 

Yeah makes sense. We are money lately with snow is one thing. but there are plenty of others that go against. Torn, my b-day.. though I also have an outpatient procedure on Monday I'd like to not have to reschedule.

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GFS and euro very different with the 50/50 low, Euro hangs it back much further SW

 

Edit: 18z GFS trended more progressive than 12z GFS

 

The 114-120 panels had me believing it was gonna come further north than 12z.  Still seems close enough to keep an eye on, although if we did get a good track it still might be rain for the cities.   

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