Heisy Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Def. a time period to watch is 4th -9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 The 06Z GFS is pretty much following what we saw with the 00Z. One difference though is that it has some northern stream energy dropping down behind next week's Great Lakes low. Pops a low in the vicinity of Kentucky and Tenn. that then rides underneath of the N Va and MD region. 00Z Euro ensembles paints a trace for the mean in the DC/Balt corridor at day 10 which follows in the ideas we have already. Day 10 through 16 ups the means to 2-3 inches for the corridor. Looking at the individual members though gives the impression of an all or nothing scenario in that 10 to 16 day period. Roughly 2/3 of the members are basically nonevents with the mean being propped up from the other 1/3 of which there are 10 members with 6+ inches or greater. Nice to see that the Euro at least sees the potential for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 The 06Z GFS is pretty much following what we saw with the 00Z. One difference though is that it has some northern stream energy dropping down behind next week's Great Lakes low. Pops a low in the vicinity of Kentucky and Tenn. that then rides underneath of the N Va and MD region. 00Z Euro ensembles paints a trace for the mean in the DC/Balt corridor at day 10 which follows in the ideas we have already. Day 10 through 16 ups the means to 2-3 inches for the corridor. Looking at the individual members though gives the impression of an all or nothing scenario in that 10 to 16 day period. Roughly 2/3 of the members are basically nonevents with the mean being propped up from the other 1/3 of which there are 10 members with 6+ inches or greater. Nice to see that the Euro at least sees the potential for that period. I like the looks of that little event on the GFS. Reminds of an event from 2 winters ago when we had a clipper get beefed up on an arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Or we could drool at the euro control day 13 foot of snow. Agree with above statement that the mean is skewed. Seems we have a low probability of snow but a higher then normal probability of a high end event. Superninoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Ensembles are locking in on a fairly decent cold outbreak d10-15. Look like cold temps would continue beyond as well. Not Feb 15 kind of cold but there does look like door will open for cross polar flow. CPC analogs made a big jump this morning. 98 & 83 are all gone from the d11+. Indicative of the upcoming pattern not being very nino'ish. Which means it's probably temporary. The analog dates also don't point towards any big storms. Which makes some sense. It's not a blocked flow/strong STJ look. It's amplified and progressive. One that ops will struggle with at medium leads. EPS does have a cluster of lows coming up from GA/SC around the 7-8th or so. That's probably where the big hits are coming from on the ens. Pretty noisy and muddy as you get out there in time. We probably won't have much of a clear picture for another 4-6 days. My wag is the pattern looks cold and dry at the beginning after the big storm in the middle of the country gets out of the way. Small events favored over anything big. Timing, thread the needle, progressive, blah blah blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 OMG PSU. I just look at the control h5. It's the blizz's baby brother. Too interesting not to post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Coastalwx in the NE forum indicates we torch thru 2/5. Then, things start to look better. This seems to match what others in here are writing. Not ready to let go of winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 I want to clarify my CPC statement about "not very nino'ish". The analog dates have a splattering of weak nino's and one mod. The overall look doesn't reflect a strong nino is a more accurate statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Dr. Cohen approves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 OMG PSU. I just look at the control h5. It's the blizz's baby brother. Too interesting not to post... blizzbaby.JPG blizzbaby1.JPG Just wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Dr. Cohen approves Along with every other weenie on this Board! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Along with every other weenie on this Board! lol It would be pretty cool to have real deal blocking through the end of the month into March. Nino marches aren't the best around here but you could say that almost no marches are that good...until the last couple years. December is fall (or summer this year) and March is winter it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Dr. Cohen approves For what it's worth the Euro keeps trying to split it as well. My knowledge of strato warming and pv splits is extremely limited but to the best of my understanding not all pv splits are beneficial to us here on the east coast. Tried searching online, though admittedly not too hard, for reference of the effects we could expect from the different pv split configurations. You wouldn't have that information available by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 It will be interesting to see how many days we pop into the upper 50s to low 60 early next week before tha big ridge delivers the next arctic shot. The NAEFS says two, the GEFS 1, the Euro ensemble mean has one 56 degree max and one 65 degree one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 For what it's worth the Euro keeps trying to split it as well. My knowledge of strato warming and pv splits is extremely limited but to the best of my understanding not all pv splits are beneficial to us here on the east coast. Tried searching online, though admittedly not too hard, for reference of the effects we could expect from the different pv split configurations. You wouldn't have that information available by any chance? It's a mixed bag of results through history. Splitting is far less common than displacements. IMO- a displacement is probably the most likely scenario. Some really neat animations of past splits and displacements are here: http://birner.atmos.colostate.edu/ssw.html Displacements can be more effective than splitting at times and vice versa. I personally don't have near the knowledge as many do. I just look at it from a simpleton view. At the very least, a displacement/warming/reduction in westerlies is associated with higher chances of HL blocking in the northern hemisphere. It's not a perfect connection at all. Jan 2014 had good displacement and seemed to assist with cold delivery in the east in general. Other times in the past it had no effect on us but made europe cold. In a nutshell, what appears to be going on in the strat can be viewed as a positive influence but actual results won't be known until they are happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Give me a 12" snow followed by two weeks of frigid with maybe a clipper in the middle and I'd be ok with calling it done. It's going to take a good six week period into mid March for me to call this a "good" winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 It's a mixed bag of results through history. Splitting is far less common than displacements. IMO- a displacement is probably the most likely scenario. Some really neat animations of past splits and displacements are here: http://birner.atmos.colostate.edu/ssw.html Displacements can be more effective than splitting at times and vice versa. I personally don't have near the knowledge as many do. I just look at it from a simpleton view. At the very least, a displacement/warming/reduction in westerlies is associated with higher chances of HL blocking in the northern hemisphere. It's not a perfect connection at all. Jan 2014 had good displacement and seemed to assist with cold delivery in the east in general. Other times in the past it had no effect on us but made europe cold. In a nutshell, what appears to be going on in the strat can be viewed as a positive influence but actual results won't be known until they are happening. Much thanks. My limited understanding is what I gleaned years ago in desperation during a winter that made grown men cry. At least grown men that love snow. I might actually make an effort at some point to really delve into it but for now I think I will continue looking at it as nothing more then a wild card thrown into the equation. And again thanks for the link, its spot on to what I was looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Give me a 12" snow followed by two weeks of frigid with maybe a clipper in the middle and I'd be ok with calling it done. It's going to take a good six week period into mid March for me to call this a "good" winter. Any winter with a HECS is a great winter to me, even if it's otherwise awful. To get a nearly 30 inch storm at BWI with blizzard conditions was amazing. Those 4-5 hours in the afternoon were nuts. That said, I'll take another HECS or two, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I agree with winterwxluvr. You need more than just one storm to validate winter. Personally, I'd like to surpass the 30" mark for the 3rd straight yr imby. That means I need another 9" on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I'm trying to find a comprehensive list of DC snowfalls (DCA or any other accredited station is fine) since 1980. Any pointers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I'm trying to find a comprehensive list of DC snowfalls (DCA or any other accredited station is fine) since 1980. Any pointers? Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Day 10+ on the Gfs looks cold. Too far out to be concerned with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Day 10+ on the Gfs looks cold. Too far out to be concerned with precip. 06z GFS para had the same idea... but tries to bring the PV into the US late in the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Much thanks. My limited understanding is what I gleaned years ago in desperation during a winter that made grown men cry. At least grown men that love snow. I might actually make an effort at some point to really delve into it but for now I think I will continue looking at it as nothing more then a wild card thrown into the equation. And again thanks for the link, its spot on to what I was looking for. You're a good poster. I noticed you haven't been around here in a while. Good to see you back posting. It's nice to have the northern tier represented more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Ian. I have a list at home but... http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Single station -> extremes -> year range: 1980-2016 -> Length of period 2 or 3 days (will miss some if you only do two, or even PDII if you do three). Station selection - station of choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Give me a 12" snow followed by two weeks of frigid with maybe a clipper in the middle and I'd be ok with calling it done. It's going to take a good six week period into mid March for me to call this a "good" winter. Once in a generation blizzard doesn't classify as a good winter? Are you from the Tug Hill area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 You're a good poster. I noticed you haven't been around here in a while. Good to see you back posting. It's nice to have the northern tier represented more. Thanks for the kind words. Been dealing with my mother being seriously ill for several months and then passing a couple days before Christmas so it has been hard to find the time or the motivation. But after just tracking the Blizzard of 2016 it's now got me raring to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Lots of huge hits in the uber LR GFS ensembles. Similar to the control EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Once in a generation blizzard doesn't classify as a good winter? Are you from the Tug Hill area? Not a big snow guy. What can I tell you. I like frequent events and long duration. My wife likes that about me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Just for kicks, the 240 hr EURO has a solid setup....wave forming around Texas, Northern branch scooting ahead would probably build HP behind it. Looks like we just have to endure the next 10 days of boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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