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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Bob, do you believe the snow map total maps?    lol

8" in Central VA, skips over Fredericksburg to PHL, then expands again to the NE

I'm seeing 1/22 paybacks

 

I honestly don't believe the solution as a whole. But it's close to something big here for sure. Handoff from the MW low a little quicker and/or start the entire process 50-75 miles further south and boom. 

 

The mini deform and convoluted precip pattern looks like it's caused by the continuous interaction with the MW low. Dirty for lack of a better term. 

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You have to admit this would be pretty funny in a really sad kind of way if it went down like this. 

 

attachicon.giflolzilolz.JPG

i remember a few years ago the euro models had a big bowling ball dive south of us and give DC/Balt a foot. I think Brian Lovern posted about it lol in a terrible winter

 

ya..that didnt pan out

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first time youve ever been nice to me. You must of just gotten a  HECS. Thanks. I pulled the trigger and bought February for weatherbell. Was tired of being hours behind on information:)

Dude, I but your chops because you can take it and have a sense of humor to appreciate it. Didn't you know that's the highest form of a compliment?

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you have to admit, in light of what falls in Central VA, this was a completely new way for one to screw us

but, if that's what it means to put Chill in bankruptcy, so be it    :fulltilt:

I believe you guys got snow on the Wed before the blizzard while the rest of us to the west got nothing.  Right?

 

Take it like a man.  :pimp:

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This is all pretty crazy IMO.  All the differences in the models, the swings.  Who knows?  Could work out in the end.

 

You asked earlier about the speed of the southern wave. It could very easily trend back to a slower solution. And of course speed up as well. The timing of that wave should be fairly well figured out by the 0z runs tomorrow night. 

 

I'm not sure what I would like to see. It appears that if the southern wave escapes we have a better shot at a colder solution with the MW energy digging down. If it phases then it's pretty much a one and done show. It's a very complicated and tightly spaced pattern. 

 

Personally, I think I'd prefer something along the lines of what the euro and jma are spitting out. I like explosive stuff. Even with the inherent risks (especially at our latitude) they are fun. 

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You asked earlier about the speed of the southern wave. It could very easily trend back to a slower solution. And of course speed up as well. The timing of that wave should be fairly well figured out by the 0z runs tomorrow night. 

 

I'm not sure what I would like to see. It appears that if the southern wave escapes we have a better shot at a colder solution with the MW energy digging down. If it phases then it's pretty much a one and done show. It's a very complicated and tightly spaced pattern. 

 

Personally, I think I'd prefer something along the lines of what the euro and jma are spitting out. I like explosive stuff. Even with the inherent risks (especially at our latitude) they are fun. 

comparing the total qpf panels on the JMA, which is all that's available until the Accuwx maps update, looks like maybe .5-.75" qpf

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