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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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GGEM is... interesting

 

132 -- 1008 in N FL

144 -- 1001 near (just south) ILM

156 -- 1003 100-200 miles east of HSE

 

Then either a new low or the one listed above reappears at 168 as a 993 over ACY/SBY... so I don't know if that is a Miller B development or some kind of weird MSLP movement... there is a weakening high in Quebec at 132 and 144 and 156 so I guess we could see some snow?

Maybe that is the energy left behind Highzenberg referred to. Either way, I'm hoping to see at least some agreement on the GFS for two runs in a row.

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I took only a quick glance at the latest gfs..................it sounds like we have a bunch of models that are all over the place with respect to each other.  That makes it very difficult to get any type of clear idea IMO as to what might actually happen.

 

So the only logical thing to do is to ride the Canadian at this time.

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It jumped N from 0z and h5 was a bit more randytastic but not getting the job done this run. The southern wave is just a bit too quick. Slow it down just a little and up the coast it comes.

 

There's the biggest difference between today's 12z gfs and yesterdays.  Yesterday, that same system was modeled for next Monday.  Today, it's modeled for Sunday.  It's a full 24 hours faster.

 

Is there any reason to believe that the models might be erroneously too fast with this?

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