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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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I do believe 5-10" here would be a MECS!  Four or 5 of those would be quite a bit.

 

(Unless you meant another HECS, I'd guess.)

Yes you're right. I meant HECS. I guess I'm thinking that being in an extreme NINO, precip will not be a problem assuming we have an active southern stream. Just have to have the temps cooperate a few times. No small feat.

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5-10" is an ordinary SECS IMO. Anything more qualified as "major"

 

 

I think 5" is definitely SECS territory, 10" however, is a major event, at least for the I-95 area IMO. 

 

I guess yeah, the low end of that would be more in SECS territory, even in the I-95 area.  But pushing 10" is getting into MECS territory (especially if the coverage is large).  And getting a few of those in a single winter would be quite a bit for the area (i.e., something like 2013-14).

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Just out of curiosity, do you place any faith in those things?

I probably wouldn't right now since they basically 180'd from last week. The weeklies were mostly consistent back in December and early January and they ended up verifying well, but when they flop from one week to the next as they did often last winter they usually cannot be used reliably

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Ugh. Somehow, I figured they would look bad, not sure why! Funny, but when you mentioned them last week, they looked pretty good as I recall. Not sure how they've done overall this year, and I'm sure they've gone back and forth each week.

(ETA: Now that I think of it, I'm not sure if the weeklies ever really sounded very good for us at all this winter other than a week here or there.)

I think your ETA is mostly correct. I believe that they have only shown 1 or 2 weeks with BN temps.
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We don't want a capture in this case Yoda. It would end up being a warm air vacuum and overhead or inland track.

We want thr lakes low to not interact at all. Best case not even exist or have it further west or north so high pressure can wedge down

 

True... I was mainly posting it to show that some models still have the Day 6-7 idea... and unfortunately it does look like it would capture IMO... but that 1026 H will save us :lol:

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I probably wouldn't right now since they basically 180'd from last week. The weeklies were mostly consistent back in December and early January and they ended up verifying well, but when they flop from one week to the next as they did often last winter they usually cannot be used reliably

Weeklies aren't good at sudden/big pattern changes at all but I've only been looking at them since last year so I don't know historically how they've performed.

They definitely didn't pick up on the blocking event in Jan until the regular ens had thr signal. If ens start popping an eastern ridge over the next couple days then they may be onto something.

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I think your ETA is mostly correct. I believe that they have only shown 1 or 2 weeks with BN temps.

Which is pretty much all we've had. :P

 

They've done ok..not as good in the high lats in particular, which other models also failed at.

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Things we all probably agree on:

 

this setup is a lot less predictable than the blizzard.

 

Southern shortwaves are always slower than predict in the medium range and EURO is usually  first to catch on. Spoiler alert if it's the slower than the GFS, it's right.

 

Lakes lows suck,  Southeast ridges suck,  Amplified troffs in the MS valley suck,  they can all easily turn this into an apps runner.

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Which is pretty much all we've had. :P

They've done ok..not as good in the high lats in particular, which other models also failed at.

No argument from me. Interestingly, I remembered the weeklies definitely had 1 decent week proggged. I didn't have them back in January so I went through the Philly wx site because they started a thread for each run this winter. Long story short, one of the runs in early January had the only decent week during what turned out to be the bliz week. So they definitely have value, but, obviously, aren't perfect.
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I wonder if mitch accepts credit cards

Nah, put it away. After you mentioned that you have 2 kids in college, all I could picture was that scene in the movie Christmas Carol with Scrooge looking in on Tiny Tim's family eating meager rations. I'll just take an IOU and your house as collateral instead. See, some lawyers have big hearts.
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