Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 What a weenie run. 18z got it's happy hour mojo back. Snow on snow followed with oranges freezing on the trees in florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 That is a March 93 like troff on the GFS at 186hrs. Not going to pull it off though. It just missed it. This run has revived some hope around here I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 What a weenie run. 18z got it's happy hour mojo back. Snow on snow followed with oranges freezing on the trees in florida. I'm curious Bob as to how the GFS lines up with the euro days 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Mitch, I love you, but I hope you go down hard. I'm actually encouraged because the GFS continues with that high showing up a lot more.So do I. You think I'm nuts? I still want it to snow. It's just a darn shame that Bob might leave a widow and 4 orphaned children over a snowstorm. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Hope is alive and well....EURO made minor changes towards this solution too... The stronger & faster that wave moves into our region, the better chance we get snow as the cold air will be locked in place with that temporary 50/50 in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 What a weenie run. 18z got it's happy hour mojo back. Snow on snow followed with oranges freezing on the trees in florida. We just missed another coastal Days 8 into 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Gfs run is incredulous. If I'm going to crash and burn, I'll be happy to do it with this run of the Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 I'm curious Bob as to how the GFS lines up with the euro days 7-10. Same "general" stuff @ h5. The details are make or break of course. Similar with the first storm but the gfs had the gll further north allowing less taint of the mid levels and more cad. Also had the really nasty deep trough but the good action was offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 So do I. You think I'm nuts? I still want it to snow. It's just a darn shame that Bob might leave a widow and 4 orphaned children over a snowstorm. Lol Snow is serious dude. You know this as much as anyone around here. Family first 100% of the time unless there is snow on the long range gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Better detailed snow map as of 252 hours. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=accsnow&rh=2016020118&fh=252&r=ne&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Not sure I agree here. It has had big shifts at days 6+ from time to time. I brought this up as far back as December. This latest 18 z run is a good example. Yesterday I made a post about big changes from the previous day. As for this latest run, interesting that the gl low is much further north. There's cad like you were talking about on the euro. I was speaking in more general terms. Euro jumps a lot too in d6-7+. Especially in convoluted patterns like were seeing now. The 18z gfs wasn't a huge jump in the grand scheme. Still keyed on the same shortwave coming up the coast but the northern stream was improved. Nothing magically appeared or disappeared. It just got colder and gooder for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 18z gefs doesn't have overwhelming support for the op solution but a definite step up from 12z Here's the 12z gefs And 18z gefs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 gfs has been showing a storm in this window for days now with cold enough air nearby. been casually watching the feb 9-11 window. we could thread the needle or at least get a tainted deal. Only time will tell. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I was speaking in more general terms. Euro jumps a lot too in d6-7+. Especially in convoluted patterns like were seeing now. The 18z gfs wasn't a huge jump in the grand scheme. Still keyed on the same shortwave coming up the coast but the northern stream was improved. Nothing magically appeared or disappeared. It just got colder and gooder for us. Well, I lived my life by the motto that what you want are good ole bigguns or big ole goodens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 We just missed another coastal Days 8 into 9 You mean the system that shows up around 210-222h? It actually looks like we get something out of that on the 18Z GFS, at least going by the Tropical Tidbits site. It has good temperatures and indicates snow falling through that time. And...as for the event at ~168h, yeah, some weird stuff going on there, and it somehow works out for us. Not sure what to make of it other than it will be different in about 6 hours! But seriously, as others have mentioned, the high is stronger, and it appears to jump in between the would-be coastal and the GL low. Almost as if it holds the GL low off, which is farther north and west. Gotta love happy hour GFS! Let's hope they don't cut it off the juice at 00Z!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 18z gefs doesn't have overwhelming support for the op solution but a definite step up from 12z Here's the 12z gefs 12zsno.JPG And 18z gefs: 18zsno.JPG e7 on the 18Z GFS, please!! Yeah, wouldn't expect a ton of support for what the ops shows, but the mean bumped up to ~2" for whatever that's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 the mean bumped up to ~2" for whatever that's worth. It's worth 10 grand! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 It's worth 10 grand! Ha! Yeah, forgot that your "bet" was for an event of 2" or more!! I am pretty certain that Mitch would love to lose that bet to a MECS or HECS, and gladly fork over 10 grand in unmarked bills to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I'll take e7 for $100, Alex! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 That's the thumper I was talking about earlier today. That HP was up to 1036 this run. It's weird in that is stays all snow as modeled. Thats a thump to mix to dry slot storm if I've ever seen one. But I am encouraged by this GFS run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 That was a very nice run. I would just as soon have four or five 5-10 inch snow events than another MECS this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Ha! Yeah, forgot that your "bet" was for an event of 2" or more!! I am pretty certain that Mitch would love to lose that bet to a MECS or HECS, and gladly fork over 10 grand in unmarked bills to you! Darn right I would, and definitely with unmarked bills. In fact, I can guarantee you that there will be no markings on those bills whatsoever. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 That was a very nice run. I would just as soon have four or five 5-10 inch snow events than another MECS this winter.Even before the blizzard hit I said I'd take 3-8" snowstorms over one 24" blizzard any year. But No, "they" had to have it "their" way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Darn right I would, and definitely with unmarked bills. In fact, I can guarantee you that there will be no markings on those bills whatsoever. Haha! Bob has to know Monopoly money is the best he can hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Even before the blizzard hit I said I'd take 3-8" snowstorms over one 24" blizzard any year. But No, "they" had to have it "their" way! Mitch pretty soon you will realize that the God's are against you this winter and you will end up "suffering through a few more events, with a little less change in your pockets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Just took a look at the weeklies. I'm not going into details because it's not good. Week 3 is hideous and week 4 is only less bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Just took a look at the weeklies. I'm not going into details because it's not good. Week 3 is hideous and week 4 is only less bad. Do the weeklies go into March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Just took a look at the weeklies. I'm not going into details because it's not good. Week 3 is hideous and week 4 is only less bad. Ugh. Somehow, I figured they would look bad, not sure why! Funny, but when you mentioned them last week, they looked pretty good as I recall. Not sure how they've done overall this year, and I'm sure they've gone back and forth each week. (ETA: Now that I think of it, I'm not sure if the weeklies ever really sounded very good for us at all this winter other than a week here or there.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 That was a very nice run. I would just as soon have four or five 5-10 inch snow events than another MECS this winter. I do believe 5-10" here would be a MECS! Four or 5 of those would be quite a bit. (Unless you meant another HECS, I'd guess.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Just took a look at the weeklies. I'm not going into details because it's not good. Week 3 is hideous and week 4 is only less bad. Just out of curiosity, do you place any faith in those things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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