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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Mitch, I love you, but I hope you go down hard. I'm actually encouraged because the GFS continues with that high showing up a lot more.

So do I. You think I'm nuts? I still want it to snow. It's just a darn shame that Bob might leave a widow and 4 orphaned children over a snowstorm. Lol
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I'm curious Bob as to how the GFS lines up with the euro days 7-10.

 

Same "general" stuff @ h5. The details are make or break of course. Similar with the first storm but the gfs had the gll further north allowing less taint of the mid levels and more cad. Also had the really nasty deep trough but the good action was offshore. 

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So do I. You think I'm nuts? I still want it to snow. It's just a darn shame that Bob might leave a widow and 4 orphaned children over a snowstorm. Lol

Snow is serious dude. You know this as much as anyone around here. Family first 100% of the time unless there is snow on the long range gfs. 

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Not sure I agree here. It has had big shifts at days 6+ from time to time. I brought this up as far back as December. This latest 18 z run is a good example. Yesterday I made a post about big changes from the previous day.

As for this latest run, interesting that the gl low is much further north. There's cad like you were talking about on the euro.

 

I was speaking in more general terms. Euro jumps a lot too in d6-7+. Especially in convoluted patterns like were seeing now.

 

The 18z gfs wasn't a huge jump in the grand scheme. Still keyed on the same shortwave coming up the coast but  the northern stream was improved. Nothing magically appeared or disappeared. It just got colder and gooder for us. 

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I was speaking in more general terms. Euro jumps a lot too in d6-7+. Especially in convoluted patterns like were seeing now.

The 18z gfs wasn't a huge jump in the grand scheme. Still keyed on the same shortwave coming up the coast but the northern stream was improved. Nothing magically appeared or disappeared. It just got colder and gooder for us.

Well, I lived my life by the motto that what you want are good ole bigguns or big ole goodens.

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We just missed another coastal Days 8 into 9

 

You mean the system that shows up around 210-222h?  It actually looks like we get something out of that on the 18Z GFS, at least going by the Tropical Tidbits site.  It has good temperatures and indicates snow falling through that time.

 

And...as for the event at ~168h, yeah, some weird stuff going on there, and it somehow works out for us.  Not sure what to make of it other than it will be different in about 6 hours!  But seriously, as others have mentioned, the high is stronger, and it appears to jump in between the would-be coastal and the GL low.  Almost as if it holds the GL low off, which is farther north and west.

 

Gotta love happy hour GFS!  Let's hope they don't cut it off the juice at 00Z!! :lmao:

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18z gefs doesn't have overwhelming support for the op solution but a definite step up from 12z

 

Here's the 12z gefs 

 

attachicon.gif12zsno.JPG

 

 

And 18z gefs:

 

attachicon.gif18zsno.JPG

 

e7 on the 18Z GFS, please!!  Yeah, wouldn't expect a ton of support for what the ops shows, but the mean bumped up to ~2" for whatever that's worth.

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:lmao:

Ha! Yeah, forgot that your "bet" was for an event of 2" or more!! I am pretty certain that Mitch would love to lose that bet to a MECS or HECS, and gladly fork over 10 grand in unmarked bills to you!

Darn right I would, and definitely with unmarked bills. In fact, I can guarantee you that there will be no markings on those bills whatsoever. Haha!
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Even before the blizzard hit I said I'd take 3-8" snowstorms over one 24" blizzard any year. But No, "they" had to have it "their" way!

Mitch pretty soon you will realize that the God's are against you this winter and you will end up "suffering through a few more events, with a little less change in your pockets.

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Just took a look at the weeklies. I'm not going into details because it's not good. Week 3 is hideous and week 4 is only less bad. 

 

Ugh.  Somehow, I figured they would look bad, not sure why!  Funny, but when you mentioned them last week, they looked pretty good as I recall.  Not sure how they've done overall this year, and I'm sure they've gone back and forth each week.

 

(ETA:  Now that I think of it, I'm not sure if the weeklies ever really sounded very good for us at all this winter other than a week here or there.)

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