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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Basically a way to cash in on this setup is the system that gives us this rain actually reinforces the cold air, and if there is enough energy at the base of the trough, it could develop into a low which could give us snow....GGEM/00z Para for example, be interested to see if the 12z EURO shows this.

in not disagreeing but that's the kind of complicated setup models will never get right from 7 days out. Better they not lock onto that kind of thing now.
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I found an interesting link from CPC that shows all the mjo plume forecasts http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml#verif and the verifiable composites to go with it http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/. Does anyone know if there has been any verification attempts among the individual models for the mjo? For some reason Joe Bastardi is concerned about the mjo signal taking over for much of February. What I don't understand is why he would be so concerned when the phases 4-5-6 crappy patterns seem to have lower verification/significance % among all models. Please only answer if you know what I'm asking.

 

Very interesting pattern on the table in terms of forecast challenges!

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Euro has a much stronger HP and cad setup next weekend that's new. 

It's gonna be rough forecasting out that far.  The storm (along the coast) showing up on the GFS the past three runs came out of nowhere basically.  Prior to that it had a southern Mississippi Valley storm that wanted to cut.

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I compared the last 4 GEFS runs and unsurprisingly the LR flip to AN temps keeps getting pushed back in time.  

I was looking at the temps in the long range this morning for both the GEFS and the Euro and was somewhat surprised to find the temps were  much cooler then what I expected given the zonal look they both had.

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