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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Mitch look at d10 para euro's take on things. It's pretty good. It would be rain to snow but just enough separation between the low to the north and a miller A running the coast. h5 look would probably blow up another low as the trough swings through. 

 

Not that I believe d10 ops. Just good to see various ideas. Super complicated period coming up. 

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Mitch look at d10 para euro's take on things. It's pretty good. It would be rain to snow but just enough separation between the low to the north and a miller A running the coast. h5 look would probably blow up another low as the trough swings through. 

 

Not that I believe d10 ops. Just good to see various ideas. Super complicated period coming up. 

Really, the models don't have a clue from one run to the next except to say certain major features are going to be on the table, but exactly where, who knows. What is on all the models, however, is a desperate lack of cold air below 850mb (for the most part.) Idk how we can fix that with the general location of the main players. We need major changes I guess is what I'm saying.

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Looks like the models are starting to hone in on an idea...Finally seeing some agreement. Unfortunately, it would be one way to get screwed during a good pattern. It looks that day 5 system won't be strong enough to form a 50/50. This allows that energy down S to phase and come inland. This could be a really good storm for inland NE, W NY, W PA....Still time for things to change though I guess....12z GGEM does develop a low day 10. 

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I don't think that's true. Not for the blizzard at least.

 

As I recall, there was a GLL in some of the initial 10-12 day modeling that gradually made its way further West and out of the picture as we moved towards the 7-10 day timeframe.  Definitely no GLL within a week out.

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The low the gfs is advertising is jumping around all over the place for the past 4 runs........and generally trending more and more north and west.

 

I think the takeaway here is that for 3 runs in a row, the gfs is showing a storm off the southeast coast.  That's a basket I'll lay eggs in.

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This setup isn't remotely close to the blizzard or any big storm. That's for sure. The northern stream low tracking the lakes is on all guidance. Everything depends on spacing/timing etc. 

I'm not very excited as all the models have the great lakes low.   DC and us eastern folks we're starting with an air mass that isn't that cold and have a bad pattern except for the coastal low.  Maybe 1 in 10 times, we'll score in such a  pattern but more often than not its a nice mid to upper 30s rain. 

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I'm not very excited as all the models have the great lakes low.   DC and us eastern folks we're starting with an air mass that isn't that cold and have a bad pattern except for the coastal low.  Maybe 1 in 10 times, we'll score in such a  pattern but more often than not its a nice mid to upper 30s rain. 

The Canadian has a more interesting look with the wave towards day 10.  One problem with the pattern besides the lack of 50 50 low is the ridge position out west which is a little farther west than we'd like.

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I think you guys need to focus on a possible event RIGHT after this rainer. The 00z para EURO develops a low on the base of trough. The 12z GGEM does it as well.... 

Which rainer? looks like there might be two.  The Canadian latched on to a wave after the second rainer which is a more vaiable possibility though I think last night's Euro had it but with the low tracking right over us. 

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Basically a way to cash in on this setup is the system that gives us this rain actually reinforces the cold air, and if there is enough energy at the base of the trough, it could develop into a low which could give us snow....GGEM/00z Para for example, be interested to see if the 12z EURO shows this. 

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Which rainer? looks like there might be two.  The Canadian latched on to a wave after the second rainer which is a more vaiable possibility though I think last night's Euro had it but with the low tracking right over us. 

 

You answered the question yourself previously, the way the 12z CMC plays out day 10, right before that the GL low helps reinforce the cold air once it heads East. Then we get the system day 10 (which is shown on todays 12z cmc & 00z para)

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Looking at the GFS ensembles they have come in deeper with the trough in the east at day 8/9 as well as shifted it slightly to the east. The anomalies have also come in slightly stronger with a noticeable shift to the south possibly suggesting that the trough will further deepen in future runs. Looking at day 8 and equivalent times on past runs, in regards to 850 temps, we have seen a fairly significant shift from being firmly implanted in the warm anomalies just 2 days ago to where we are now straddling the cold anomalies.

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6z Parallel GFS has the 2/8 coastal but we are torched even worse than the operational GFS shows at 850. Hagerstown on West might be able to get some frozen.

Would be a good setup if the lakes low were further west and weaker. But with the northern stream as amped as it is, I wouldn't count on a surface low tracking east of Pittsburgh.
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