SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Dang, if it wasn't for that Great Lakes Low the 2/8 event on the GFS would be beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 I'm really worried about rain/snow stuff @ 170+ hours too. It was a lot better than 6z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The 180 hour event on the GFS would be HECS numero dos if not for the gl low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I'm really worried about rain/snow stuff @ 170+ hours too. It was a lot better than 6z though. Well, nothing wrong with practice. lol The Euro isn't even close to snow for anyone over or east of the Apps, so the inevitable changes to come will probably be hard to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 slp tracks right over Mass. What a kick in their kahunas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I'm really worried about rain/snow stuff @ 170+ hours too. It was a lot better than 6z though. In a normal situation, i wouldn't worry...and even now we shouldn't...but it won't get better with the presence of that GL mutha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Mitch look at d10 para euro's take on things. It's pretty good. It would be rain to snow but just enough separation between the low to the north and a miller A running the coast. h5 look would probably blow up another low as the trough swings through. Not that I believe d10 ops. Just good to see various ideas. Super complicated period coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 slp tracks right over Mass. What a kick in their kahunas. And because of that, it won't happen as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 We thought the gll would be a problem last time and there was not one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Mitch look at d10 para euro's take on things. It's pretty good. It would be rain to snow but just enough separation between the low to the north and a miller A running the coast. h5 look would probably blow up another low as the trough swings through. Not that I believe d10 ops. Just good to see various ideas. Super complicated period coming up. Really, the models don't have a clue from one run to the next except to say certain major features are going to be on the table, but exactly where, who knows. What is on all the models, however, is a desperate lack of cold air below 850mb (for the most part.) Idk how we can fix that with the general location of the main players. We need major changes I guess is what I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 We thought the gll would be a problem last time and there was not one I don't think that's true. Not for the blizzard at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Looks like the models are starting to hone in on an idea...Finally seeing some agreement. Unfortunately, it would be one way to get screwed during a good pattern. It looks that day 5 system won't be strong enough to form a 50/50. This allows that energy down S to phase and come inland. This could be a really good storm for inland NE, W NY, W PA....Still time for things to change though I guess....12z GGEM does develop a low day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 00z Para EURO has that second low that the 12z GGEM just showed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I don't think that's true. Not for the blizzard at least. As I recall, there was a GLL in some of the initial 10-12 day modeling that gradually made its way further West and out of the picture as we moved towards the 7-10 day timeframe. Definitely no GLL within a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I don't think that's true. Not for the blizzard at least. I don't think it is either. I don't remember anything but high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The low the gfs is advertising is jumping around all over the place for the past 4 runs........and generally trending more and more north and west. I think the takeaway here is that for 3 runs in a row, the gfs is showing a storm off the southeast coast. That's a basket I'll lay eggs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 This setup isn't remotely close to the blizzard or any big storm. That's for sure. The northern stream low tracking the lakes is on all guidance. Everything depends on spacing/timing etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 This setup isn't remotely close to the blizzard or any big storm. That's for sure. The northern stream low tracking the lakes is on all guidance. Everything depends on spacing/timing etc. I'm not very excited as all the models have the great lakes low. DC and us eastern folks we're starting with an air mass that isn't that cold and have a bad pattern except for the coastal low. Maybe 1 in 10 times, we'll score in such a pattern but more often than not its a nice mid to upper 30s rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I think you guys need to focus on a possible event RIGHT after this rainer. The 00z para EURO develops a low on the base of trough. The 12z GGEM does it as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I'm not very excited as all the models have the great lakes low. DC and us eastern folks we're starting with an air mass that isn't that cold and have a bad pattern except for the coastal low. Maybe 1 in 10 times, we'll score in such a pattern but more often than not its a nice mid to upper 30s rain. The Canadian has a more interesting look with the wave towards day 10. One problem with the pattern besides the lack of 50 50 low is the ridge position out west which is a little farther west than we'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I think you guys need to focus on a possible event RIGHT after this rainer. The 00z para EURO develops a low on the base of trough. The 12z GGEM does it as well.... Which rainer? looks like there might be two. The Canadian latched on to a wave after the second rainer which is a more vaiable possibility though I think last night's Euro had it but with the low tracking right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Which rainer? looks like there might be two. The Canadian latched on to a wave after the second rainer which is a more vaiable possibility though I think last night's Euro had it but with the low tracking right over us. I believe right after the Wednesday rainer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Basically a way to cash in on this setup is the system that gives us this rain actually reinforces the cold air, and if there is enough energy at the base of the trough, it could develop into a low which could give us snow....GGEM/00z Para for example, be interested to see if the 12z EURO shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Which rainer? looks like there might be two. The Canadian latched on to a wave after the second rainer which is a more vaiable possibility though I think last night's Euro had it but with the low tracking right over us. You answered the question yourself previously, the way the 12z CMC plays out day 10, right before that the GL low helps reinforce the cold air once it heads East. Then we get the system day 10 (which is shown on todays 12z cmc & 00z para) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 06z NAVGEM (yes, reaching here ) has a coastal low near HSE (maybe 100 miles SE?) at 144 12z UKIE looks like it would be too late at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 6z Parallel GFS has the 2/8 coastal but we are torched even worse than the operational GFS shows at 850. Hagerstown on West might be able to get some frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 GFS ens is good enough to keep interest alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Looking at the GFS ensembles they have come in deeper with the trough in the east at day 8/9 as well as shifted it slightly to the east. The anomalies have also come in slightly stronger with a noticeable shift to the south possibly suggesting that the trough will further deepen in future runs. Looking at day 8 and equivalent times on past runs, in regards to 850 temps, we have seen a fairly significant shift from being firmly implanted in the warm anomalies just 2 days ago to where we are now straddling the cold anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 You know you are a real weather weenie when you check the 12z NAVGEM for any threats... and there is one See 144... though its cutting it kind of close for snow... decent h5 vort to our south and that pesky GL low is far enough to the west (its in NW MN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 6z Parallel GFS has the 2/8 coastal but we are torched even worse than the operational GFS shows at 850. Hagerstown on West might be able to get some frozen.Would be a good setup if the lakes low were further west and weaker. But with the northern stream as amped as it is, I wouldn't count on a surface low tracking east of Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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