Amped Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The GEFS look really crappy, miss on all 3 events. Hopefully things will change as we get closer and the EPO pattern will hold longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Maybe we are done, but considering there is still more than a month and a half of time remaining where we could realistically hit on something, I'm far from going there. I would expect at least 2-3 more snow events (and I don't mean flurries) before the season wraps up. Maybe that includes a snow tv event in March, but I'm not tossing in the towel when winter is only half over, if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The GEFS look really crappy, miss on all 3 events. Hopefully things will change as we get closer and the EPO pattern will hold longer. I don't think there's much use looking that far ahead for storm particulars, even on ensembles right now...particularly the gfs. They are showing some pretty big swings from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Anybody see that whacky **** the GFS is doing with that thing off the SE coast...almost seems tropical lol. The swings on it and others are kinda comical now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 GFS is tripping off the southeast coast. Pretty much a shutout through 384 for I95, I might get an inch or two. Misses with a chance to form a Greenland block around 264hrs. GGEM is a shutout also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Until we get past this midwest blizzard models are going to struggle. That being said, I don't love the set up at all for the I-95. We're in that cold/dry, warm/wet pattern again on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I think Feb.8th holds some promise of another coastal. It's really wound up and just misses to our east. This really came out of nowhere. At least it's something to track for Monday. Nice HP to the north, just has to hang in a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 6z confirms a major signal for February 8th! We just need that track a little bit off the coast and we you may be in busbusinz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 6z GFS has a Miller A coastal with an ideal track 2/8 but there is a great lakes low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 6z confirms a major signal for February 8th! We just need that track a little bit off the coast and we you may be in busbusinz The track is almost perfect... there is a low over the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Maybe we are done, but considering there is still more than a month and a half of time remaining where we could realistically hit on something, I'm far from going there. I would expect at least 2-3 more snow events (and I don't mean flurries) before the season wraps up. Maybe that includes a snow tv event in March, but I'm not tossing in the towel when winter is only half over, if that. fwiw I agree with Mitch, my hunch we're done for season, and after reading the posts here last 2 days, seems the atmosphere is saying same thing, We had our big one, we goit what we wanted. I have lived here almost my entire 67 years, strange things have happened, this may just be the year 1 and done. That storm on 8th looks like rain here witt-storms correct??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 fwiw I agree with Mitch, my hunch we're done for season, and after reading the posts here last 2 days, seems the atmosphere is saying same thing, We had our big one, we goit what we wanted. I have lived here almost my entire 67 years, strange things have happened, this may just be the year 1 and done. That storm on 8th looks like rain here witt-storms correct??? Does look like mostly rain for I-95. Not gonna sweat it too much the whole setup will probably be different at 12z. Not sure why people would punt the rest of winter at this time. Seems to be an active pattern with some cold available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 IAD March snow >1". 29/53. 55% >6" 16/53. 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Just looked over the GFS and Euro 00Z ensembles and have some thoughts for whatever they are worth. Despite the very helter-skelter look that the individual members have shown for quite awhile now, the ensemble means, except for some minor adjustments and sharpening of features, have been pretty steadfast on the general 500mb pattern for several days now. Maybe I have JB syndrome but I am actually starting to get very optimistic for our chances. In my opinion the ensembles are suggesting that we are looking at a prime window of 3-4 days centered around day 10. Though the odds are somewhat low, I don't think a minor event preceding this window can be ruled out entirely. In my mind what the ensembles have hinted at over the last few days is that we will see a fairly significant deep trough located in the east during this window. This is based off the fact that the means have consistently shown fairly deep anomalous heights and this despite the very chaotic look of the individual members. I think this is becoming more evident with the general southward progression and deepening of the anomalous heights we have been seeing over the last few days. The one potential fly in the ointment I can see during that window though is that the models have been steadfast in showing higher heights where we would want to see a 50/50 planted. But in that aspect I am becoming more optimistic as well. The general shifting of the trough westerly on the means just a few days ago has ended and has now generally shifted back east into a more favorable position. With the means shifting towards a deeper and more easterly based trough I think the odds are increasing as well that we can actually, for the most part, get by without a 50/50. And this doesn't even take in consideration that the models have also consistently shown a -NAO. With all the energy revolving around the PV, as well as southern stream energy, I would not be surprised to see a transient 50/50 pop up and delayed somewhat by the -NAO of which if timed right could be very beneficial. So all in all, the way I see this possibly playing out is that we probably open the window with a minor to maybe a moderate event and then close it out with a significant eastern US low coinciding with the relaxing of the pattern. Now whether it is white, wet or both is to be determined but I think the odds are improving towards a whiter solution. Again, these are just a Novice's thoughts, whom may be suffering from JBitis to boot, and should not be confused with the thoughts of some of the extremely knowledgeable individuals that grace these boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Showmethesnow, Euro ensembles' mean snowfall for the 15 day period at BWI is 1.5-2". That's down from 2-3" where is was for the last few days. Either way, that's pretty lousy so I don't know what you're seeing in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Team Mitch. I am printing t-shirts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Showmethesnow, Euro ensembles' mean snowfall for the 15 day period at BWI is 1.5-2". That's down from 2-3" where is was for the last few days. Either way, that's pretty lousy so I don't know what you're seeing in them. good point as always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Showmethesnow, Euro ensembles' mean snowfall for the 15 day period at BWI is 1.5-2". That's down from 2-3" where is was for the last few days. Either way, that's pretty lousy so I don't know what you're seeing in them. Yeah, noticed that as well. The GFS isn't much better either. As far as the snowfall means I don't think they are reflective of the potential being shown because of the wildly chaotic nature of the ensemble members. My conclusions are based almost entirely on what I am seeing with the mean 500's on the ensembles. If I am correct I would expect to see those totals begin to nudge up in a day or two as the models start to hone in on the the evolution of the great lakes low in Canada and beyond and we see corresponding narrowing of member solutions on the ensembles. But again, just the thoughts of a novice that is probably being a weenie right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Status Quo for me. Tough pattern to read, but the pieces are there. Good luck to anyone trying to make a forecast for this weekend and early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vance1167 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I'm just a weenie but declaring winter over before February has even started in DC is quite ridiculous. Maybe it is but I would never wager that winter is over on 1/31 in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 IAD March snow >1". 29/53. 55% >6" 16/53. 30% And its even higher than that north and west. This winter is far from over. It's just turmoil on the models right now. The threat on the 8th has a chance to be a front end thumper. Especially north and west. The HP is weakening as it passes to the north and there is a GL low. But if the HP is just a little stronger we would have some decent cad and most likely have a thump to some ice. There is just too much winter left for me to totally give up. I dont like the forecast for the Atlantic. It's ugly. But it looks like we will have the Pacific for most of Feb. If I had to choose between the two. I would take the Pac every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Showmethesnow, Euro ensembles' mean snowfall for the 15 day period at BWI is 1.5-2". That's down from 2-3" where is was for the last few days. Either way, that's pretty lousy so I don't know what you're seeing in them. I don't know you anymore. Snap out of it. It's February 1st. If we can get some phasing for that 6z mess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Pattern is not exciting at all! We have to shake the weird lows in the Great Lakes and get some real blocking in the NAO regions or we are gonna have to bootleg something off a hung up front. All could happen, none showing up until maybe way late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Just to be clear where I am on what's left. I made a "bet" with Bob that there was a 70% chance of us not having a 2"+ event between now and 2/15. I stick by that. Come 2/15, we can see where we are. However, a couple of things look not to change by 2/15. First, the MJO, which is strong'ish and looks to be in a lousy phase thru 2/15 (at least). Second, after some weakening in January, the Nino is stuck and there has been new subsurface warming suggesting we won't see any sudden collapse which usually comes with cold and snowy Nino Februarys. So, admittedly, I've been "looking ahead" to my 2/15 look at things, which can obviously bite me in the butt. But I really don't see a meaningful change to those two major factors except for the now well progged Sudden Stratospheric Warming in 6-10 days. The effects of the the SSW are unknown and have varied year to year. We could be ground zero for its effects or not. So there is a chance, but since the effects (if there are any) of a SSW take at least a week, we're now in the 2/20-2/25 neighborhood, which is why I said in a post over the weekend "gun to head, I think we're looking at the 2/25-3/10 period" as our next reasonable time frame. But the reality is, we don't know the effects of the SSW and even though you can never count on anything for certain in the weather, the effects of a SSW are probably down near the bottom of the list of dependable winter features. Thus, my concern over a possible end this winter of any meaningful (2"+) snow events. OTOH, if the SSW rocks, it will be a crazy good end to the winter, but it's too early to even speculate on a progged SSW. Let it happen, then we'll know, which is why I like the 2/15 time period to reconsider. All that said, it can still snow. I just don't think we'll get a 2"+ event. EDIT: FYI, the 2" of snow I refer to is at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I'm just a weenie but declaring winter over before February has even started in DC is quite ridiculous. Maybe it is but I would never wager that winter is over on 1/31 in DC. welcome to the Mid-Atlantic forum, where winter ends in the October before winter actually begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 That's a good post Mitch. My thoughts are pretty simplified through mid month. There's cold delivery in place and some blocking. It's flawed with the tough axis and also what appears to be a pretty active northern stream + atlantic ridging. My hunch is odds based. Multiple shortwaves and cold in the neighborhood during prime snow climo should probably produce something. Given the negative factors in place any production will come with some flaws too. The para euro actually has the type of mixed event d10 that would fit my thinking. As far as SSW's go...I'm not a big fan of relying on them. I don't really even consider them until 1) they actually happen and 2) there is a favorable response in the troposphere. We a good bit away from knowing anything there. Lastly, flips from Dec +AO to a Jan -AO definitely favor a -AO in Feb and even March but the signal gets muddy in March so who knows. Combine all this with a +ENSO and I think cancelling winter is a bit silly right now. Anyone who says they think winter is done is making a definitive 45 day forecast. Good luck with that. We don't even know what's going to happen in 7 days with the best weather models on the planet at our fingertips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 That's a good post Mitch. My thoughts are pretty simplified through mid month. There's cold delivery in place and some blocking. It's flawed with the tough axis and also what appears to be a pretty active northern stream + atlantic ridging. My hunch is odds based. Multiple shortwaves and cold in the neighborhood during prime snow climo should probably produce something. Given the negative factors in place any production will come with some flaws too. The para euro actually has the type of mixed event d10 that would fit my thinking. As far as SSW's go...I'm not a big fan of relying on them. I don't really even consider them until 1) they actually happen and 2) there is a favorable response in the troposphere. We a good bit away from knowing anything there. Lastly, flips from Dec +AO to a Jan -AO definitely favor a -AO in Feb and even March but the signal gets muddy in March so who knows. Combine all this with a +ENSO and I think cancelling winter is a bit silly right now. Anyone who says they think winter is done is making a definitive 45 day forecast. Good luck with that. We don't even know what's going to happen in 7 days with the best weather models on the planet at our fingertips. Thanks. Agree with your thoughts too. The 12Z GFS is an absolute travesty of justice. SLP in a perfect spot at 171 hrs. and we rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Thanks. Agree with your thoughts too. The 12Z GFS is an absolute travesty of justice. SLP in a perfect spot at 171 hrs. and we rain. $@##^ GL low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Ughhhh http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020112&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 $@##^ GL low http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=183 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.