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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Prepare for castration. Lol

I know... And I meant has not had potential oops kinda changes the tone a bit. I just think the coming 10-15 day period isn't hopeless and I could easily see one of the 3 or so threats working out, at the same time each is low probability. I could just as easily see the anafrontal wave stay east, the miller b blow up ots and the day 10 thing phase too soon and cut. Then the pattern breaks down and we warm up. But looking beyond that I have a feeling were not done. The timing of the mjo into colder phases, the likely next soi drop, and when blocking might really go nuts in response to the current strat warming all seems to line up late feb into March.
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Nah, reasonable thoughts. I never felt a big storm pattern either. The NAR has been persistent on guidance for days.

Only chance at a big storm would be to have one of the waves blow up and be a transient 50/50 with a tightly spaced follow up. Which could happen but we still don't have a clue which wave(s) actually become storms.

I'm sure some lr op will blizzard us over the next couple days before flooding us the next run and so on.

Of all the variables that has me most jaded is that dang MJO. it has been relentless and I believe it's no coincidence that our bliz occurred when it weakened in a favorable phase.
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I'd pay Bob 10k cheerios if that day 8-9 thing would morph into a 1/25/00 type event. That trough says it has many of the makings sans the needed track.

our best shot is the day 10 thingy. If the miller b bombs out and creates enough confluence behind it we could either get a nice front end thump from a cutter or perhaps get the slp to transfer before gaining too much latitude. Without the day 7 thing bombing though it's slmost certainly a cutter. You can see that by playing out the gefs and eps members.
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PSU, I'm not sold on the pattern breaking down. Maybe transient ridging with a west trough for a couple days. Gefs was showing a quick breakdown earlier in January but it pushed at least a week forward in time. I'm in the camp that the the high latitudes will cooperate for the balance of the month and possibly into March for a while. Just a hunch but I'm not sold on what the gefs is serving up d14+

Nao is a bit of a wildcard. Prob best to assume we don't get a legit stable block there until it's happening and locked in with med range guidance.

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I know... And I meant has not had potential oops kinda changes the tone a bit. I just think the coming 10-15 day period isn't hopeless and I could easily see one of the 3 or so threats working out, at the same time each is low probability. I could just as easily see the anafrontal wave stay east, the miller b blow up ots and the day 10 thing phase too soon and cut. Then the pattern breaks down and we warm up. But looking beyond that I have a feeling were not done. The timing of the mjo into colder phases, the likely next soi drop, and when blocking might really go nuts in response to the current strat warming all seems to line up late feb into March.

Your concerns and thoughts echo mine. That's why I took the other side of Bob on the 70% chance of a 2"+ event because I feel the chances are roughly 2 to 1 that we don't, which is not to say we can't or won't.
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No one will like hearing this but I have a sneaking suspicion we may have to wait through another ugly period feb 15-20 or so before a reload. I do think this next 10-15 days has potential for something but I'm not as bullish as some. It's flawed but not an awful pattern. But the mjo signal keeps getting stronger through phase 4-6 and that's pretty ugly for our area. I'm looking at the timing of that progressing back towards less hostile phases and thinking after a real strat warming event blocking is probably going to stick around to some degree. So if we go into a torch mid feb I think it's temporary but I know half the people here aren't that into March threats.

 

Personally, I'm not ruling out an early March snow event.  I wouldn't mind something like March 5 last year or St. Pat's 2014 as a sort of last hurrah.  I also don't think we get shut out or nearly so during February, but score a decent event then as well.  Hence my belief that it's not unreasonable to set an expectation at a couple more moderate level snow events the rest of the winter.  But chasing the "big dog" is, at least looking at things right now and in my opinion, setting oneself up for disappointment.

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Of all the variables that has me most jaded is that dang MJO. it has been relentless and I believe it's no coincidence that our bliz occurred when it weakened in a favorable phase.

 

And we dont have the Atlantic for the foreseeable future either. If anything the NAO has been trending more positive through February on the forecasts.

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And we dont have the Atlantic for the foreseeable future either. If anything the NAO has been trending more positive through February on the forecasts.

Yeah, it's sad that a crap Atlantic is a given. We did fine the last 2 years without it, but the strong (and persistent) Niño requires either impressive high latitude blocking like we had or a decent -NAO which we can't get for the life of us. Then add the MJO and we're cooked/cooking.

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And we dont have the Atlantic for the foreseeable future either. If anything the NAO has been trending more positive through February on the forecasts.

I disagree to some extent. Both the eps and Gefs are starting to hone in on the 9-13th period having a -nao. Last 24 hours have trended favorably. The nao is pretty tough at long leads. It's much more common for a neg nao to sneak up on us vs a neg ao.

We'll see how thing look late this week. I'm skeptical too but there are some encouraging signs at least.

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PSU, I'm not sold on the pattern breaking down. Maybe transient ridging with a west trough for a couple days. Gefs was showing a quick breakdown earlier in January but it pushed at least a week forward in time. I'm in the camp that the the high latitudes will cooperate for the balance of the month and possibly into March for a while. Just a hunch but I'm not sold on what the gefs is serving up d14+

Nao is a bit of a wildcard. Prob best to assume we don't get a legit stable block there until it's happening and locked in with med range guidance.

I'm not sold on anything. So many conflicting signals. I don't know about breaking down but I do think things might relax into a warmer 5-7 day period mid month before another colder period. That seems to be the timing of these things. This upcoming cold shot is flawed because it's aligned with a bad mjo period IMO. I'm hopeful the next colder period lines up better with cold phases. That's teally my thinking in a nutshell. Nothing too complicated or deep.
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Wow, things sure went downhill in a hurry in here, it seems!  Just a couple of days ago, the medium to longer range was looking pretty good overall after this upcoming week of torch-like weather.  Not necessarily ideal, but good in terms of locking in some cold and some snow possibilities, rather than transient colder shots.  And even some good hints of blocking down the road.  Now...not so much, at least checking the ops and ensembles.  Too much uncertainty to even make much of an assessment.  I'm not enthralled by the longer range GEFS sort of losing the cold and lifting heights again in the east.  It wasn't indicating that before, but the last day or so it's been showing up.  Not sure how much it means other than more uncertainty, especially beyond ~240 hours (of course!).

 

I guess we're in a wait and see sort of period, though that kind of sucks.  I'm not necessarily sold on this "wait until after the 15-20th" thinking that I've seen, at least given what the GEFS mean is showing (it will be gone before the 20th, if it's correct!).  That said, it's really muddy out in that territory, unfortunately, with little to go by from what I've seen.

 

I have a feeling that some of the deflated feeling is due to some expectation that we'll score another HECS-level event, which is really going for a long shot and sets one up for disappointment.  We well could get one, but I'm not even looking for that right now.  Despite the apparently greater uncertainty showing up in the models, I'm still of the opinion that a couple of solid MECS type events are a reasonable bet from now through the first part of March.  Right now, I honestly don't think we'll be "one and done" this winter, or otherwise only get a car-topper the rest of the way.

ahh well.. at least we can all fall back on the fact that no one really has a clue what the map will look like 15 days from now, no matter how many novels we write about it.

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Tough to argue with that logic, Psu. One thing for sure...for better or for worse...this week won't be boring.

The one discouraging thing that is showing up on the all the forecast is lower pressure across the Great Lakes because the darn northern stream is so strong.  That implies even if we get a snow solution it is liable to be messy. 

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care to offer some analysis?

ha, sorry guys was just poking fun at a pattern that seems overly convoluted to do anything other then basic pattern analysis. To up energy upstream to really start pin point late game evens at this point, maybe a general time frame but I would go much further then that.

 

Nah, reasonable thoughts. I never felt a big storm pattern either. The NAR has been persistent on guidance for days. 

Only chance at a big storm would be to have one of the waves blow up and be a transient 50/50 with a tightly spaced follow up. Which could happen but we still don't have a clue which wave(s) actually become storms. (or timing)

I'm sure some lr op will blizzard us over the next couple days before flooding us the next run and so on.

 

I think Bob Chill pretty much sums up my feeling on this. There are too many variable to consider and a lot of energy up stream to try focus on a storm d7+. More importantly there are too many things that need to go right for us to get a big storm. It's nice to see cold air coming in, but this isn't necessary a long term development which gives use a small window for the right pieces can come to gather. Each late end storm that could develop could just as easily be a cutter or go OTS at this point in time, which means one of the most important player I would focus on in this pattern is timing. Where and when these waves come in will have drastic effects on the evolution of each storm, which is why there has been a general inconsistency in run to run comparison,Something could happen I'm just not holding my breath on anything major. I'd personally have been interested in the southern stream for possible late game Miller B type storm once the cold air is in place, but this is honestly just as unlikely has any of the other possible scenarios. 

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LOL....the latest gfs solution at day 10 is so far removed from its prior runs it looks like it's from model runs on two different years.

For the coveted 1-3"/2-4" events we aren't going to be able to look past 5 days.

No surprise to see wild shifts in the long-range in model land and the corresponding shifts in tone in this thread. It's like clockwork.

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