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Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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After looking at the ensembles all I can say is if I were a forecaster my confidence would be low on any forecast made. Even at day 6 there is a fairly large spread with the low off the coast in location and evolution. 00Z Euro ensemble has generally become more progressive with the low with just handful showing a glancing blow to VA and MD coast with two of those reaching the DC/Balt corridor with 2-3". The GFS ensembles @ 00Z and 06Z are a little more enthusiastic with 4 members on both runs making it somewhat interesting for our region. After day 6? Pick your poison because the models are all over the place. I will say that the Euro is still hinting at popping a low off the coast around day 8 but the GFS on both ensemble runs doesn't seem to like that idea as much. The means on the Euro in the longer range look a touch better for whatever that is worth. Should be some interesting times ahead that will keep us on our toes.

 

I wanted to also ask if anyone had daily snowfall records for BWI. Preferably, at least to the 60's. Thanks in advance.

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Wow, things sure went downhill in a hurry in here, it seems!  Just a couple of days ago, the medium to longer range was looking pretty good overall after this upcoming week of torch-like weather.  Not necessarily ideal, but good in terms of locking in some cold and some snow possibilities, rather than transient colder shots.  And even some good hints of blocking down the road.  Now...not so much, at least checking the ops and ensembles.  Too much uncertainty to even make much of an assessment.  I'm not enthralled by the longer range GEFS sort of losing the cold and lifting heights again in the east.  It wasn't indicating that before, but the last day or so it's been showing up.  Not sure how much it means other than more uncertainty, especially beyond ~240 hours (of course!).

 

I guess we're in a wait and see sort of period, though that kind of sucks.  I'm not necessarily sold on this "wait until after the 15-20th" thinking that I've seen, at least given what the GEFS mean is showing (it will be gone before the 20th, if it's correct!).  That said, it's really muddy out in that territory, unfortunately, with little to go by from what I've seen.

 

I have a feeling that some of the deflated feeling is due to some expectation that we'll score another HECS-level event, which is really going for a long shot and sets one up for disappointment.  We well could get one, but I'm not even looking for that right now.  Despite the apparently greater uncertainty showing up in the models, I'm still of the opinion that a couple of solid MECS type events are a reasonable bet from now through the first part of March.  Right now, I honestly don't think we'll be "one and done" this winter, or otherwise only get a car-topper the rest of the way.

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So right now guys it looks like the EURO is blowing up that day 9 storm for NE, but the day 10 wave is strung out. The GFS for 2 runs in a row is turning that day 8-9 system into a 50/50 and really blowing up the day 10-11 system. I mean look @ this look on the Para 6z GFS, this is an insane look for a monster low. 

 

post-8091-0-65536700-1454252836_thumb.gi

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So right now guys it looks like the EURO is blowing up that day 9 storm for NE, but the day 10 wave is strung out. The GFS for 2 runs in a row is turning that day 8-9 system into a 50/50 and really blowing up the day 10-11 system. I mean look @ this look on the Para 6z GFS, this is an insane look for a monster low. 

 

attachicon.gifviolent.gif

Low tracks over the Appalachians though Hberg 

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So right now guys it looks like the EURO is blowing up that day 9 storm for NE, but the day 10 wave is strung out. The GFS for 2 runs in a row is turning that day 8-9 system into a 50/50 and really blowing up the day 10-11 system. I mean look @ this look on the Para 6z GFS, this is an insane look for a monster low. 

 

attachicon.gifviolent.gif

 

I was just looking at that now that you mention it.  A very odd evolution.

 

 

Low tracks over the Appalachians though Hberg 

 

Yes, it sort of does, but it's a complicated and (as I said above) odd looking evolution.  At least at the surface.  Somehow, despite a track that goes just over the DC area...or perhaps it's some kind of transfer right in that area...the 2-m temperatures remain at or below freezing throughout.  I don't understand that, there isn't any high to the northeast.  Even the 850-mb temperatures are cold, or get borderline to zero.  If anything, it almost appears like a snow to mix/ice kind of situation verbatim, with some good antecedent cold air in place.

 

ETA:  For instance, there's this:

 

gfs_namer_228_10m_wnd_precip.gif

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I'm chasing 2-4" of slop so mitch can hand over 10 grand.

I have nothing new to add. Looks super complicated with tight spacing and streams running energy all over the place. Guessing game at best.

I'm rooting for a phase/bomb regardless of track. A big bomb would be pretty fun.

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Wow, things sure went downhill in a hurry in here, it seems! Just a couple of days ago, the medium to longer range was looking pretty good overall after this upcoming week of torch-like weather. Not necessarily ideal, but good in terms of locking in some cold and some snow possibilities, rather than transient colder shots. And even some good hints of blocking down the road. Now...not so much, at least checking the ops and ensembles. Too much uncertainty to even make much of an assessment. I'm not enthralled by the longer range GEFS sort of losing the cold and lifting heights again in the east. It wasn't indicating that before, but the last day or so it's been showing up. Not sure how much it means other than more uncertainty, especially beyond ~240 hours (of course!).

I guess we're in a wait and see sort of period, though that kind of sucks. I'm not necessarily sold on this "wait until after the 15-20th" thinking that I've seen, at least given what the GEFS mean is showing (it will be gone before the 20th, if it's correct!). That said, it's really muddy out in that territory, unfortunately, with little to go by from what I've seen.

I have a feeling that some of the deflated feeling is due to some expectation that we'll score another HECS-level event, which is really going for a long shot and sets one up for disappointment. We well could get one, but I'm not even looking for that right now. Despite the apparently greater uncertainty showing up in the models, I'm still of the opinion that a couple of solid MECS type events are a reasonable bet from now through the first part of March. Right now, I honestly don't think we'll be "one and done" this winter, or otherwise only get a car-topper the rest of the way.

No one will like hearing this but I have a sneaking suspicion we may have to wait through another ugly period feb 15-20 or so before a reload. I do think this next 10-15 days has potential for something but I'm not as bullish as some. It's flawed but not an awful pattern. But the mjo signal keeps getting stronger through phase 4-6 and that's pretty ugly for our area. I'm looking at the timing of that progressing back towards less hostile phases and thinking after a real strat warming event blocking is probably going to stick around to some degree. So if we go into a torch mid feb I think it's temporary but I know half the people here aren't that into March threats.
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No one will like hearing this but I have a sneaking suspicion we may have to wait through another ugly period feb 15-20 or so before a reload. I do think this next 10-15 days had potential for something but I'm not as bullish as some. It's flawed but not an awful pattern. But the mjo signal keeps getting stronger through phase 4-6 and that's pretty ugly for our area. I'm looking at the timing of that progressing back towards less hostile phases and thinking after a real strat warming event blocking is probably going to stick around to some degree. So if we go into a torch mid feb I think it's temporary but I know half the people here aren't that into March threats.

Prepare for castration. Lol
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Prepare for castration. Lol

Nah, reasonable thoughts. I never felt a big storm pattern either. The NAR has been persistent on guidance for days.

Only chance at a big storm would be to have one of the waves blow up and be a transient 50/50 with a tightly spaced follow up. Which could happen but we still don't have a clue which wave(s) actually become storms.

I'm sure some lr op will blizzard us over the next couple days before flooding us the next run and so on.

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