Heisy Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I'll take the 00z GFS pattern over the 18z anyday of the week. We have a CLASSIC 50/50 @ 219 hours, absolutely classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I'll take the 00z GFS pattern over the 18z anyday of the week. We have a CLASSIC 50/50 @ 219 hours, absolutely classic. Hopefully that vortex will build a Greenland block in the next few runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Wow @ that 240 hrs map. That is textbook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Wow @ that 240 hrs map. That is textbook 522dm troff is textbook 5 minutes of heavy snow for us, then crush job for eastern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Wow @ that 240 hrs map. That is textbookSave next week's beer money for a new textbook!P.s. you know I'm just bustin' ur chops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Haha, how sick does this look though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Save next week's beer money for a new textbook! P.s. you know I'm just bustin' ur chops Haha, I know...I never take offense to anything. We're on a wx forum for christ sake. I love it. I'll be up for EURO unless I pass out before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Haha, how sick does this look though... 5050.gif Missing the southern stream boot if it had one it would be an Octuple Phaser Death Starmageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Haha, I know...I never take offense to anything. We're on a wx forum for christ sake. I love it. I'll be up for EURO unless I pass out before thenThe gfs is just entertainment at this range, but at least it was good entertainment tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Looks like a legit -NAO at the end of the gfs run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 GFS has been behind all other models on the AO ridge. It caved this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Cosgrove loving feb 9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Hard to tell without in between panels, but Euro hr 192 looks, er, randytastic - but did the lp come down from the clipper or ride the trough up the coast? Though it looks more like the former, if the latter, we could be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I would be shocked if it doesn't snow once or twice before the 20th. The pattern as advertised is pdg. Is it without flaws? No. But how often do we see a flawless pattern here? Lets roll. amen ,cape like the way you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 After looking at the ensembles all I can say is if I were a forecaster my confidence would be low on any forecast made. Even at day 6 there is a fairly large spread with the low off the coast in location and evolution. 00Z Euro ensemble has generally become more progressive with the low with just handful showing a glancing blow to VA and MD coast with two of those reaching the DC/Balt corridor with 2-3". The GFS ensembles @ 00Z and 06Z are a little more enthusiastic with 4 members on both runs making it somewhat interesting for our region. After day 6? Pick your poison because the models are all over the place. I will say that the Euro is still hinting at popping a low off the coast around day 8 but the GFS on both ensemble runs doesn't seem to like that idea as much. The means on the Euro in the longer range look a touch better for whatever that is worth. Should be some interesting times ahead that will keep us on our toes. I wanted to also ask if anyone had daily snowfall records for BWI. Preferably, at least to the 60's. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 It would be nice if the HP in Canada were more to the east for that day 6 coastal. It could be something to keep our eyes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The long range GFS run looks very entertaining. Around 200 hours a Miller B for SNE and then at 250 you have a 964 mb low in upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Wow, things sure went downhill in a hurry in here, it seems! Just a couple of days ago, the medium to longer range was looking pretty good overall after this upcoming week of torch-like weather. Not necessarily ideal, but good in terms of locking in some cold and some snow possibilities, rather than transient colder shots. And even some good hints of blocking down the road. Now...not so much, at least checking the ops and ensembles. Too much uncertainty to even make much of an assessment. I'm not enthralled by the longer range GEFS sort of losing the cold and lifting heights again in the east. It wasn't indicating that before, but the last day or so it's been showing up. Not sure how much it means other than more uncertainty, especially beyond ~240 hours (of course!). I guess we're in a wait and see sort of period, though that kind of sucks. I'm not necessarily sold on this "wait until after the 15-20th" thinking that I've seen, at least given what the GEFS mean is showing (it will be gone before the 20th, if it's correct!). That said, it's really muddy out in that territory, unfortunately, with little to go by from what I've seen. I have a feeling that some of the deflated feeling is due to some expectation that we'll score another HECS-level event, which is really going for a long shot and sets one up for disappointment. We well could get one, but I'm not even looking for that right now. Despite the apparently greater uncertainty showing up in the models, I'm still of the opinion that a couple of solid MECS type events are a reasonable bet from now through the first part of March. Right now, I honestly don't think we'll be "one and done" this winter, or otherwise only get a car-topper the rest of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 You're chasing ghost my friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 So right now guys it looks like the EURO is blowing up that day 9 storm for NE, but the day 10 wave is strung out. The GFS for 2 runs in a row is turning that day 8-9 system into a 50/50 and really blowing up the day 10-11 system. I mean look @ this look on the Para 6z GFS, this is an insane look for a monster low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 So right now guys it looks like the EURO is blowing up that day 9 storm for NE, but the day 10 wave is strung out. The GFS for 2 runs in a row is turning that day 8-9 system into a 50/50 and really blowing up the day 10-11 system. I mean look @ this look on the Para 6z GFS, this is an insane look for a monster low. violent.gif Low tracks over the Appalachians though Hberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 You're chasing ghost my friends care to offer some analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 So right now guys it looks like the EURO is blowing up that day 9 storm for NE, but the day 10 wave is strung out. The GFS for 2 runs in a row is turning that day 8-9 system into a 50/50 and really blowing up the day 10-11 system. I mean look @ this look on the Para 6z GFS, this is an insane look for a monster low. violent.gif I was just looking at that now that you mention it. A very odd evolution. Low tracks over the Appalachians though Hberg Yes, it sort of does, but it's a complicated and (as I said above) odd looking evolution. At least at the surface. Somehow, despite a track that goes just over the DC area...or perhaps it's some kind of transfer right in that area...the 2-m temperatures remain at or below freezing throughout. I don't understand that, there isn't any high to the northeast. Even the 850-mb temperatures are cold, or get borderline to zero. If anything, it almost appears like a snow to mix/ice kind of situation verbatim, with some good antecedent cold air in place. ETA: For instance, there's this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 care to offer some analysis? Thanks for saying what probably a lot of us wanted to say in response to that "chasing ghosts" comment! I saw that and thought "WTF is that supposed to mean?" We may well be chasing nothing, but kind of ridiculous to state that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 care to offer some analysis? I'm sure that will be a no. As for the para solution day 9-10....I think we would all take that. Well, anybody not looking for a 2' snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 I'm chasing 2-4" of slop so mitch can hand over 10 grand. I have nothing new to add. Looks super complicated with tight spacing and streams running energy all over the place. Guessing game at best. I'm rooting for a phase/bomb regardless of track. A big bomb would be pretty fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Wow, things sure went downhill in a hurry in here, it seems! Just a couple of days ago, the medium to longer range was looking pretty good overall after this upcoming week of torch-like weather. Not necessarily ideal, but good in terms of locking in some cold and some snow possibilities, rather than transient colder shots. And even some good hints of blocking down the road. Now...not so much, at least checking the ops and ensembles. Too much uncertainty to even make much of an assessment. I'm not enthralled by the longer range GEFS sort of losing the cold and lifting heights again in the east. It wasn't indicating that before, but the last day or so it's been showing up. Not sure how much it means other than more uncertainty, especially beyond ~240 hours (of course!). I guess we're in a wait and see sort of period, though that kind of sucks. I'm not necessarily sold on this "wait until after the 15-20th" thinking that I've seen, at least given what the GEFS mean is showing (it will be gone before the 20th, if it's correct!). That said, it's really muddy out in that territory, unfortunately, with little to go by from what I've seen. I have a feeling that some of the deflated feeling is due to some expectation that we'll score another HECS-level event, which is really going for a long shot and sets one up for disappointment. We well could get one, but I'm not even looking for that right now. Despite the apparently greater uncertainty showing up in the models, I'm still of the opinion that a couple of solid MECS type events are a reasonable bet from now through the first part of March. Right now, I honestly don't think we'll be "one and done" this winter, or otherwise only get a car-topper the rest of the way. No one will like hearing this but I have a sneaking suspicion we may have to wait through another ugly period feb 15-20 or so before a reload. I do think this next 10-15 days has potential for something but I'm not as bullish as some. It's flawed but not an awful pattern. But the mjo signal keeps getting stronger through phase 4-6 and that's pretty ugly for our area. I'm looking at the timing of that progressing back towards less hostile phases and thinking after a real strat warming event blocking is probably going to stick around to some degree. So if we go into a torch mid feb I think it's temporary but I know half the people here aren't that into March threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 No one will like hearing this but I have a sneaking suspicion we may have to wait through another ugly period feb 15-20 or so before a reload. I do think this next 10-15 days had potential for something but I'm not as bullish as some. It's flawed but not an awful pattern. But the mjo signal keeps getting stronger through phase 4-6 and that's pretty ugly for our area. I'm looking at the timing of that progressing back towards less hostile phases and thinking after a real strat warming event blocking is probably going to stick around to some degree. So if we go into a torch mid feb I think it's temporary but I know half the people here aren't that into March threats.Prepare for castration. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I'd pay Bob 10k cheerios if that day 8-9 thing would morph into a 1/25/00 type event. That trough says it has many of the makings sans the needed track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 Prepare for castration. Lol Nah, reasonable thoughts. I never felt a big storm pattern either. The NAR has been persistent on guidance for days. Only chance at a big storm would be to have one of the waves blow up and be a transient 50/50 with a tightly spaced follow up. Which could happen but we still don't have a clue which wave(s) actually become storms. I'm sure some lr op will blizzard us over the next couple days before flooding us the next run and so on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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