psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 We might have to suffer through a couple weeks of up and down before a better pattern for snow locks in. If I had to bet on when we're most likely to get another decent snow I would say later feb or early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 We might have to suffer through a couple weeks of up and down before a better pattern for snow locks in. If I had to bet on when we're most likely to get another decent snow I would say later feb or early March. if march your really pushing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 if march your really pushing it Do you not remember the last 2 winters? March rocks. Way more so than December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Do you not remember the last 2 winters? March rocks. Way more so than December. 2 out of how many?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 2 out of how many?? J-F-M = Winter You are a JB fan right? Trend is your friend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 We could do a lot worse than what the 12z EPS is advertising for the day 10-15 period. Nasty -AO, solid -NAO. Looks like brutal cold for the N plains and upper MW. Overall the LW pattern(western ridge/eastern trough) is shifted just a tad too far west than ideal. It can still produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 We might have to suffer through a couple weeks of up and down before a better pattern for snow locks in. If I had to bet on when we're most likely to get another decent snow I would say later feb or early March.I said we would have to wait until "at least 2/20", but gun to head I would say 2/25-3/10. Well, here's hoping for a fluke in the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 I said we would have to wait until "at least 2/20", but gun to head I would say 2/25-3/10. Well, here's hoping for a fluke in the meantime. The 12z para gfs 850 loop says maybe not. 3 small and one decent event. Lol http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I would be shocked if it doesn't snow once or twice before the 20th. The pattern as advertised is pdg. Is it without flaws? No. But how often do we see a flawless pattern here? Lets roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 I would be shocked if it doesn't snow once or twice before the 20th. The pattern as advertised is pdg. Is it without flaws? No. But how often do we see a flawless pattern here? Lets roll. Feel the same way. Active streams and cold moving around. I would say over 75% of our events happen in flawed patterns. It's a staple in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Happy hour GFS has a storm, continuing the signal for something decent in what I consider to be the sweet spot in the advertised upcoming pattern....day 10 - 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Happy hour GFS has a storm, continuing the signal for something decent in what I consider to be the sweet spot in the advertised upcoming pattern....day 10 - 15. Yeah, give me a low near the outer banks and I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Looks like a storm system is moving up the East Coast just offshore around February 6th. Need just a little bit more of a trend West and we may be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Yeah, give me a low near the outer banks and I'll take my chances. Evolution looks a bit wonky, but it is the 18z GFS. The idea is there, and in general it fits the h5 pattern as advertised by the GEFS and EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Looks like a storm system is moving up the East Coast just offshore around February 6th. Need just a little bit more of a trend West and we may be in business. Worth keeping an eye on for sure, but seems to be an outside shot in general. There have been a few recent op runs that have had a moderate storm in the area, but ens members have been lukewarm at best...not much support overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The 12z para gfs 850 loop says maybe not. 3 small and one decent event. Lol http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Well, I should clarify what I'm talking about. Lol. I'm still referring to the parameters you and I had our $10,000 bet over...a 2-4"/3-6" or greater. (Like the way I just slipped that $10k in? Lol) No way me or anyone in their right mind is going to be able to say whether a minor event (flurries or <1" type thing) won't happen. Sorry if I disappointed anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 Well, I should clarify what I'm talking about. Lol. I'm still referring to the parameters you and I had our $10,000 bet over...a 2-4"/3-6" or greater. (Like the way I just slipped that $10k in? Lol) No way me or anyone in their right mind is going to be able to say whether a minor event (flurries or <1" type thing) won't happen. Sorry if I disappointed anyone. Haha. Fair enough. I accept cash, PayPal, and bit coins. If we only get 1-3" then $5k will cover it. Seeing some March 93 chatter on the board. I could deal being on the rainy side of an event like that as long as it destroys lots of stuff. Jokes aside, there is an immense amount of spread over the d7-15 period. I can't remember the last time I saw such an active period with that much spread. Like I said earlier, low location MSLP panels are sawed off shotgun blasts of L's on the maps. Ops are going to be throwing out kitchen sinks over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Haha. Fair enough. I accept cash, PayPal, and bit coins. If we only get 1-3" then $5k will cover it. Seeing some March 93 chatter on the board. I could deal being on the rainy side of an event like that as long as it destroys lots of stuff. Jokes aside, there is an immense amount of spread over the d7-15 period. I can't remember the last time I saw such an active period with that much spread. Like I said earlier, low location MSLP panels are sawed off shotgun blasts of L's on the maps. Ops are going to be throwing out kitchen sinks over the next week. Talking March 93 is serious business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 if march your really pushing itIt seems we have to go through this every year. Getting snow the first 10 days of March is about the same as getting snow in December. Yea it's harder then January or feb but it happens enough that if the pattern is good you can't poo poo the idea out of hand. Even the rest of March is still game for the 1/3 of this forum that lives a but northwest of 95 and or has some elevation. And it's a long shot but it can still snow into dc even mid and late month but it's a rare event. Yea it's not ideal to get a great pattern in March. Move the March 58 storm a few weeks earlier and some of those 30-50" totals reported up here would have been in the cities too. The only issue was boundary temps in the mid 30s the whole storm. So yea temper expectations of course. If you live on the coastal plain or in the urban heat island and its March 10th a storm that might have been 18" would probably be 6-12" of wet snow. But it can still snow. And for places west of the fall line it can still be a big one. Of course it would be great to get a perfect nao block to develop early feb like 2010 but the timing is a bit off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I think we talk about March 93 every winter as it wanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Talking March 93 is serious business.There have been some ensemble runs that show the day 11-12 thing lining up all 3 branches and going nuts. I saw one the other day bombing a low down to 938. Crazy stuff. Almost all of them end badly for us though as they cut too soon. Most triple phased storms do that though. 93 and 66 were exceptions.ETA: we're talking a handful of runs out of hundreds though so it's a very small probability but there is a way it could happen in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I said we would have to wait until "at least 2/20", but gun to head I would say 2/25-3/10. Well, here's hoping for a fluke in the meantime.I'm kind of conflicted about where we are now. A lot of mixed signals. I don't think we torch after the cutter this week and probably have chances and could luck our way to a decent event early feb. But I look at the soi rising and the mjo heading into hostile territory combined with the strat warming usually taking some time to pay off and blocking just reloading now and that is often a several week process to get is from A to snow and my gut says we meander through the first half of feb fighting a mixed signal pattern. Not awful but not lined up perfectly. My reasoning for optimism later even in the face of lesser climo is timing. I think the Pna epo might be locking in long term due to the north pac forcing. The mjo looks to progress towards more friendly territory late month and perhaps we get another soi drop then too. Finally that also lines up with when blocking is more likely to really be established again. Add all that up and even in late feb or March give me good blocking with a +Pna -epo and good stj and I'll take my chances even that late. So I am not discounting any threats in the next 2 weeks just saying my gut feeling is we may get a really really good window later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I think we talk about March 93 every winter as it wanes. Yeah....it's a dream but you never know I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 I think we talk about March 93 every winter as it wanes. Yea but if we do it for at least another 50 years or so it will verify. Unfortunately for me, in 50 years I'll either be long dead or I won't remember my name or be in touch with reality so let's hope it happens in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Yea but if we do it for at least another 50 years or so it will verify. Unfortunately for me, in 50 years I'll either be long dead or I won't remember my name or be in touch with reality so let's hope it happens in 2 weeks. Yeah, 50 years puts me in the century club, not sure how much weather model hugging I'd be doing then........ Make that two votes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I think we talk about March 93 every winter as it wanes. Some years 1958 and 1942 are the primary focus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Yeah....it's a dream but you never know I supposeIf we're gonna do it just make the track 50 miles east this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 My paranoia is simply that w/o the -ao or -nao, we're going to be stuck in the deep winter version of Nov-early Jan, which I feel ain't what a weenie wants. Again, a fluke is always possible in such a pattern, but not very likely imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 My paranoia is simply that w/o the -ao or -nao, we're going to be stuck in the deep winter version of Nov-early Jan, which I feel ain't what a weenie wants. Again, a fluke is always possible in such a pattern, but not very likely imho. I can't see the next 6 weeks being anything near the pattern we had then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I can't see the next 6 weeks being anything near the pattern we had then.I said "deep winter version" and meant colder but still no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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